Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at UNC Wilmington Seahawks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 3:00 PM ETTrask Coliseum · at UNC Wilmington

Final

Closing lineUNCW -18.5✓ UNCW covered by 7.5

Closing total147.5Over by 2.5

Season records: Gardner-Webb and UNC Wilmington
GWEB	This season	UNCW
0-7	Record	5-1
2-5	ATS	4-2
4-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GWEB 64–87 UNCW · ✓ UNCW (98%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GWEB	30	32	62
UNCW	48	40	88

1st half: GWEB 30, UNCW 48 (UNCW by 18). The model had UNCW by 13.8 and a total of 70.4 (actual 78).

Team stats

GWEB		UNCW
21-58 36%	Field goals	33-64 52%
10-31 32%	3-pointers	14-30 47%
10-13 77%	Free throws	8-11 73%
32 8 off	Rebounds	40 8 off
8	Assists	20
5	Steals	7
2	Blocks	2
14	Turnovers	7
11	Fouls	12
20	Points in paint	32
13	Fast-break points	3

Players

GWEB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Curtis Williams III G	32	14	2	2	5-12	2-6
Jacob Hogarth F	31	9	11	2	4-8	1-2
Colin Hawkins G	28	2	2	1	1-4	0-1
Ace Talbert G	27	8	0	1	2-6	2-6
Spence Sims G	27	19	4	1	6-12	4-8
Bench
Jacob Hudson G	15	3	3	1	1-3	0-1
Jamias Ferere G	12	7	2	0	2-4	1-3
NaVuan Peterson F	12	0	1	0	0-3	0-3
DJ Jefferson G	10	0	2	0	0-4	0-0
Ahmadou Ndiaye G	5	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Cameron Gales G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Paul Lindberg, Julius Clark, Riek Riek, Ashton King, Isaiah Hicks

UNCW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nolan Hodge G	32	16	2	2	6-13	3-7
Noah Ross G	30	12	5	2	5-12	2-6
Christian May G	26	7	10	2	3-10	1-7
Patrick Wessler C	21	12	4	4	5-6	0-0
Greedy Williams G	18	7	2	1	2-3	1-2
Bench
Madison Durr G	26	14	5	6	5-7	3-3
Gavin Walsh F	23	11	6	2	4-9	3-3
Makoi Mabor Makoi F	15	6	4	0	2-2	0-0
Makel Smith G	4	3	0	0	1-1	1-1
Grady Whitt G	3	0	0	1	0-1	0-1
JoJo Fullwood G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: CJ Luster II, Matija Prodanovic, Adam Tokpah, Jahnathan Lamothe

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNCW -18.5	UNCW -23.2	UNCW +4.7	W UNCW covered
Total	147.5	150.3	Over 2.8	W Over
Projected score	—	GWEB 63.6 · UNCW 86.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCW -13.8	UNCW -18.0
1H total	70.4	78
1H projected score	GWEB 28.3 · UNCW 42.1	GWEB 30 · UNCW 48

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GWEB WLLLL	2-5	29%	2-3	2-5
UNCW LWWWW	4-2	67%	3-1	4-1

Venue/role: GWEB away, as underdog; UNCW home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GWEB OUOUO	4-3	57%	0-7
UNCW UUOUO	3-3	50%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GWEBlast 7	0-7 0%	2-5 29%	4-3 57%
UNCWlast 6	5-1 83%	4-2 67%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Gardner-Webb

7 games played

Straight up

0-7

0% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −7.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-70%

L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MINN	L 60-87	+28.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 7	@CLEM	L 59-97	+29.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 15	@ELON	L 84-95	+13.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 179
Nov 18	@DEP	L 62-93	+21.5	L −9.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 22	@RICH	L 67-102	+19.5	L −15.5	154.5	O 169
Nov 26	vsNAVY	L 51-84	+10.5	L −22.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 28	vsSELA	L 68-76	+6.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MINN

L 60-87

+1.5

CLEM

L 59-97

−8.5

ELON

L 84-95

+2.5

DEP

L 62-93

−9.5

RICH

L 67-102

−15.5

NAVY

L 51-84

−22.5

SELA

L 68-76

−1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −7.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MINN

L 60-87

−1.5

CLEM

L 59-97

+10.5

ELON

L 84-95

+24.5

DEP

L 62-93

−0.5

RICH

L 67-102

+14.5

NAVY

L 51-84

−18.5

SELA

L 68-76

+2.5

over 4under 3avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

UNC Wilmington

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@KENT	L 77-86	+3.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsUPST	W 73-60	-14.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 18	vsECU	W 85-60	-6.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 145
Nov 21	@RAD	W 81-73	-4.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 154
Nov 26	vsSELA	W 70-57	-11.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 127
Nov 28	vsNAVY	W 87-57	-8.5	W +21.5	138.5	O 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

−5.5

UPST

W 73-60

−1.5

ECU

W 85-60

+18.5

RAD

W 81-73

+3.5

SELA

W 70-57

+1.5

NAVY

W 87-57

+21.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

+6.5

UPST

W 73-60

−22.5

ECU

W 85-60

−0.5

RAD

W 81-73

+2.5

SELA

W 70-57

−10.5

NAVY

W 87-57

+5.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Gardner-Webb @ UNC Wilmington

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Gardner-Webb

UNC Wilmington

Gardner-Webb

UNC Wilmington