Mackey Arena · at Purdue
Closing line
PUR -16.5✓ PUR covered by 3.5
PUR -16.5✓ PUR covered by 3.5Closing total154.5Under by 16.5
 MARQ | This season | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| 5-5 | Record | 9-1 |
| 3-7 | ATS | 5-5 |
| 6-4 | O/U | 3-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MARQ 68–87 PUR · ✓ PUR (95%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MARQ | 21 | 38 | 59 |
| PUR | 37 | 42 | 79 |
1st half: MARQ 21, PUR 37 (PUR by 16). The model had PUR by 11.3 and a total of 72.7 (actual 58).
Team stats
| MARQ | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 20-61 33% | Field goals | 30-56 54% |
| 8-31 26% | 3-pointers | 7-23 30% |
| 11-15 73% | Free throws | 12-15 80% |
| 29 15 off | Rebounds | 38 12 off |
| 14 | Assists | 20 |
| 8 | Steals | 6 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 2 |
Players
| MARQ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Ross G | 28 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3-9 | 1-3 |
| Ben Gold F | 26 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 3-9 | 1-5 |
| Caedin Hamilton F | 20 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Nigel James Jr. G | 20 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0-6 | 0-2 |
| Adrien Stevens G | 19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Royce Parham F | 27 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 7-15 | 3-6 |
| Sean Jones G | 20 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0-5 | 0-4 |
| Zaide Lowery G | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Damarius Owens SF | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Michael Phillips II SF | 9 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Joshua Clark F | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Tre Norman G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Casey O'Malley, Ian Miletic, Sheek Pearson, Braeden Brenn, Jonah Lucas
| PUR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Smith G | 31 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 3-6 | 0-2 |
| Fletcher Loyer G | 28 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 5-9 | 4-8 |
| Trey Kaufman-Renn F | 26 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Oscar Cluff C | 23 | 22 | 11 | 1 | 9-9 | 0-0 |
| C.J. Cox G | 22 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Gicarri Harris G | 18 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Omer Mayer G | 16 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-4 |
| Daniel Jacobsen C | 16 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-2 |
| Jack Benter G | 12 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Liam Murphy F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Aaron Fine G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jack Lusk G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jace Rayl G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Raleigh Burgess, Sam King, Antione West Jr
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketPUR -16.5
ModelPUR -19.0
Model edgePUR +2.5
W PUR covered
Total
Market154.5
Model155.3
Model edgeOver 0.8
L Under
Projected score
MARQ 68.1 · PUR 87.1
MARQ 59 · PUR 79
Win probability
PUR 95%
1st half
Spread
PUR -11.3
PUR -16.0
Total
72.7
58 points
Projected score
MARQ 30.7 · PUR 42
MARQ 21 · PUR 37
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPUR -18.5
2 → MARQ
ClosePUR -16.5
2 pts toward MARQ
Total
Open152.5
▲ 2
Close154.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
MARQ +1100 · PUR -2100
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PUR -18.5 · closed PUR -16.5 · moved 2 toward MARQmodel PUR -19
model PUR -19
Opened 152.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 2 upmodel 155.5
model 155.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MARQ | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
| PUR | 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MARQ 1–2 PURPUR leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · MARQ 3-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2024-25 | PUR 58 @ MARQ 76 | MARQ -5.5 | MARQ W |
| Nov 22, 2023-24 | PUR 78 vs MARQ 75 | MARQ +3.5 | MARQ W |
| Nov 15, 2022-23 | MARQ 70 @ PUR 75 | PUR -8.5 | MARQ W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Marquette
10 games played
Straight up
5-5
50% wins
Against the spread
3-7
30% covers · avg −6.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-4
60% overs · avg +3.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs UALB | W 80-53 | -24.5 | W +2.5 | 149.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 5 | vs SOU | W 100-82 | -24.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 9 | vs IU | L 77-100 | +3.5 | L −19.5 | 156.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 12 | vs LR | W 89-49 | -21.5 | W +18.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 15 | vs MD | L 82-89 | -8.5 | L −15.5 | 146.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 19 | vs DAY | L 71-77 | -6.5 | L −12.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 22 | vs CMU | W 85-71 | -25.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 28 | vs OU | L 74-75 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 162.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 2 | vs VAL | W 75-72 | -17.5 | L −14.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 6 | @ WIS | L 76-96 | +11.5 | L −8.5 | 160.5 | O 172 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUALB
UALBW 80-53
+2.5
5
vsSOU
SOUW 100-82
−6.5
9
vsIU
IUL 77-100
−19.5
12
vsLR
LRW 89-49
+18.5
15
vsMD
MDL 82-89
−15.5
19
vsDAY
DAYL 71-77
−12.5
22
vsCMU
CMUW 85-71
−11.5
28
vsOU
OUL 74-75
+0.5
2
vsVAL
VALW 75-72
−14.5
6
@WIS
WISL 76-96
−8.5
covered 3didn’t cover 7avg −6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUALB
UALBW 80-53
−16.5
5
vsSOU
SOUW 100-82
+26.5
9
vsIU
IUL 77-100
+20.5
12
vsLR
LRW 89-49
−17.5
15
vsMD
MDL 82-89
+24.5
19
vsDAY
DAYL 71-77
−3.5
22
vsCMU
CMUW 85-71
+3.5
28
vsOU
OUL 74-75
−13.5
2
vsVAL
VALW 75-72
+0.5
6
@WIS
WISL 76-96
+11.5
over 6under 4avg +3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Purdue
10 games played
Straight up
9-1
90% wins
Against the spread
5-5
50% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-7
30% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EVAN | W 82-51 | -33.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 7 | vs OAK | W 87-77 | -31.5 | L −21.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 13 | @ ALA | W 87-80 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 172.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 16 | vs AKR | W 97-79 | -18.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 20 | vs MEM | W 80-71 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 21 | vs TTU | W 86-56 | -3.5 | W +26.5 | 153.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 28 | vs EIU | W 109-62 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 2 | @ RUTG | W 81-65 | -13.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | vs ISU | L 58-81 | -4.5 | L −27.5 | 154.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 10 | vs MINN | W 85-57 | -19.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−2.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
−21.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
+10.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
−0.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
+26.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+6.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
+2.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−27.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
+8.5
covered 5didn’t cover 5avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−17.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
+5.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
−5.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
+12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
−11.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+29.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
−0.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−15.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
−1.5
over 3under 7avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Marquette
5-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Wisconsin76–96
- Wvs Valparaiso75–72
- Lvs Oklahoma74–75
- Wvs C Michigan85–71
- Lvs Dayton71–77
A week or more of rest.
Purdue
9-1 overall · 2-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Minnesota85–57
- Lvs Iowa State58–81
- W@ Rutgers81–65
- Wvs E Illinois109–62
- Wvs Texas Tech86–56
3 days since their last game.