Oklahoma Sooners vs Marquette Golden Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 2:00 PM ETCredit Union 1 Arena · Neutral site

#31OUOklahoma75▲ winner

Final

#42MARQMarquette74final

Closing lineOU -1.5✓ MARQ covered by 0.5

Closing total162.5Under by 13.5

Season records: Oklahoma and Marquette
OU	This season	MARQ
4-2	Record	4-3
1-5	ATS	2-5
2-4	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: OU 82–81 MARQ · ✓ OU (55%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
OU	33	42	75
MARQ	37	37	74

1st half: OU 33, MARQ 37 (MARQ by 4). The model had OU by 1.0 and a total of 76.1 (actual 70).

Team stats

OU		MARQ
29-61 48%	Field goals	27-67 40%
11-28 39%	3-pointers	9-27 33%
6-9 67%	Free throws	11-15 73%
33 10 off	Rebounds	37 16 off
19	Assists	14
1	Steals	3
8	Blocks	1
8	Turnovers	5
14	Fouls	12
34	Points in paint	30
6	Fast-break points	4

Players

OU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nijel Pack G	35	24	2	3	9-14	5-7
Tae Davis F	33	19	11	5	8-9	0-1
Derrion Reid F	28	15	0	0	6-10	2-3
Xzayvier Brown G	26	0	2	3	0-9	0-4
Mohamed Wague F	18	2	5	3	1-2	0-0
Bench
Jeff Nwankwo G	18	11	4	1	4-7	3-5
Dayton Forsythe G	16	0	2	2	0-6	0-4
Jadon Jones G	15	4	1	1	1-3	1-3
Kai Rogers F	8	0	4	1	0-0	0-0
Kuol Atak F	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Reid Lovelace, Alec Blair, Andreas Holst, Jake Hansen, Finley Keeffe

MARQ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chase Ross G	36	21	5	3	8-15	2-5
Ben Gold F	35	3	7	1	1-7	0-3
Nigel James Jr. G	30	20	3	4	8-15	1-3
Zaide Lowery G	27	7	4	3	2-9	1-4
Caedin Hamilton F	17	0	3	1	0-4	0-0
Bench
Royce Parham F	25	13	4	1	5-8	3-5
Adrien Stevens G	20	3	3	1	1-6	1-5
Tre Norman G	7	4	0	0	1-1	0-0
Michael Phillips II SF	3	3	1	0	1-2	1-2

Did not play: Casey O'Malley, Jonah Lucas, Sean Jones, Joshua Clark, Ian Miletic, Damarius Owens, Sheek Pearson, Braeden Brenn

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	OU -1.5	OU -1.4	MARQ +0.1	W MARQ covered
Total	162.5	162.5	—	Under
Projected score	—	OU 82 · MARQ 80.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OU -1.0	MARQ -4.0
1H total	76.1	70
1H projected score	OU 38.5 · MARQ 37.5	OU 33 · MARQ 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
OU LLLLL	1-5	17%	0-1	1-3
MARQ LWLLL	2-5	29%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: OU neutral site, as favorite; MARQ neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OU UUOUU	2-4	33%	4-2
MARQ OUOUO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OUlast 6	4-2 67%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%
MARQlast 7	4-3 57%	2-5 29%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Oklahoma

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −4.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSFPA	W 102-66	-31.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 168
Nov 8	@GONZ	L 68-83	+10.5	L −4.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsUAPB	W 95-69	-36.5	L −10.5	168.5	U 164
Nov 15	vsNEB	L 99-105	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 204
Nov 20	vsORU	W 95-71	-24.5	L −0.5	166.5	U 166
Nov 23	vsALCN	W 72-53	-31.5	L −12.5	160.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+4.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−4.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−10.5

NEB

L 99-105

−4.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−12.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+18.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−15.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−4.5

NEB

L 99-105

+40.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−35.5

over 2under 4avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marquette

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −6.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +5.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-529%

W L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUALB	W 80-53	-24.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 133
Nov 5	vsSOU	W 100-82	-24.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 9	vsIU	L 77-100	+3.5	L −19.5	156.5	O 177
Nov 12	vsLR	W 89-49	-21.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 138
Nov 15	vsMD	L 82-89	-8.5	L −15.5	146.5	O 171
Nov 19	vsDAY	L 71-77	-6.5	L −12.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 22	vsCMU	W 85-71	-25.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

+2.5

SOU

W 100-82

−6.5

L 77-100

−19.5

W 89-49

+18.5

L 82-89

−15.5

DAY

L 71-77

−12.5

CMU

W 85-71

−11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

−16.5

SOU

W 100-82

+26.5

L 77-100

+20.5

W 89-49

−17.5

L 82-89

+24.5

DAY

L 71-77

−3.5

CMU

W 85-71

+3.5

over 4under 3avg +5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oklahoma vs Marquette

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Oklahoma

Marquette

Oklahoma

Marquette