Creighton Bluejays at Villanova Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 7, 7:30 PM ETFinneran Pavilion · at Villanova · Conference game

#37CREICreighton76▲ winner

Final

#32VILLVillanova72final

Closing lineVILL -4.5✓ CREI covered by 8.5

Closing total142.5Over by 5.5

Season records: Creighton and Villanova
CREI	This season	VILL
9-6	Record	12-2
7-8	ATS	10-4
5-10	O/U	6-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CREI 69–73 VILL · ✗ VILL (64%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CREI	30	46	76
VILL	34	38	72

1st half: CREI 30, VILL 34 (VILL by 4). The model had VILL by 2.2 and a total of 66.3 (actual 64).

Team stats

CREI		VILL
29-58 50%	Field goals	29-66 44%
7-23 30%	3-pointers	6-24 25%
11-16 69%	Free throws	8-11 73%
39 13 off	Rebounds	30 12 off
10	Assists	14
3	Steals	4
3	Blocks	2
8	Turnovers	6
12	Fouls	15
30	Points in paint	38
7	Fast-break points	4

Players

CREI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Josh Dix G	34	17	4	0	7-14	2-6
Austin Swartz G	31	20	4	3	9-15	2-7
Jasen Green F	28	10	7	2	3-8	1-2
Ty Davis G	25	2	6	1	0-0	0-0
Isaac Traudt F	15	0	1	1	0-2	0-2
Bench
Blake Harper G	27	17	3	1	6-9	1-2
Nik Graves G	15	2	0	2	1-6	0-2
Fedor Zugic G	13	5	4	0	2-3	1-2
Owen Freeman F	8	2	4	0	1-1	0-0
Kerem Konan F	4	1	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Aleksa Dimitrijevic, Liam McChesney, Jackson McAndrew, Josh Townley-Thomas, Shane Thomas, Hudson Greer

VILL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Duke Brennan F	33	16	12	3	6-8	0-0
Acaden Lewis G	33	20	4	7	8-16	2-6
Tyler Perkins G	31	18	4	0	7-13	2-8
Bryce Lindsay G	31	4	3	2	2-10	0-3
Matt Hodge F	28	5	0	0	2-5	1-4
Bench
Devin Askew G	21	4	5	1	2-10	0-1
Malachi Palmer G	14	3	0	0	1-3	1-2
Braden Pierce C	5	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Zion Stanford G	4	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Nico Onyekwere, Wade Chiddick, Chris Jeffrey, Malcolm Flaggs, Tafara Gapare

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	VILL -4.5	VILL -4.0	CREI +0.5	W CREI covered
Total	142.5	141.5	Under 1.0	L Over
Projected score	—	CREI 68.8 · VILL 72.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VILL -2.2	VILL -4.0
1H total	66.3	64
1H projected score	CREI 32 · VILL 34.3	CREI 30 · VILL 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CREI WWWLW	7-8	47%	2-2	2-4
VILL WWWLW	10-4	71%	5-3	6-3

Venue/role: CREI away, as underdog; VILL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CREI OUOOU	5-10	33%	9-6
VILL OUUUO	6-8	43%	12-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CREI	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
VILL	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CREI 6–4 VILLCREI leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CREI has won the last 3 meetings · CREI 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 1, 2024-25	CREI 62 @ VILL 60	VILL -1.5	CREI W
Dec 21, 2024-25	VILL 79 @ CREI 86	CREI -5.5	CREI W
Mar 9, 2023-24	CREI 69 @ VILL 67	VILL +1.5	CREI W
Dec 20, 2023-24	VILL 68 @ CREI 66	CREI -9.5	VILL W
Mar 9, 2022-23	VILL 74 vs CREI 87	CREI -4.5	CREI W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Creighton

15 games played

Straight up

9-6

60% wins

Against the spread

7-8

47% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-10

33% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-660%

W L W W L L W W L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-847%

L L W L L L W W L L W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-1033%

U U U U O U U O U U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsSDAK	W 92-76	-29.5	L −13.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 11	@GONZ	L 63-90	+12.5	L −14.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 14	vsUMES	W 84-45	-33.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 129
Nov 19	vsUND	W 75-60	-29.5	L −14.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 24	vsBAY	L 74-81	+3.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 155
Nov 25	vsISU	L 60-78	+9.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 138
Nov 27	vsORE	W 76-66	-2.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 2	vsNICH	W 96-76	-18.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 172
Dec 7	@NEB	L 50-71	+5.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 121
Dec 13	vsKSU	L 76-83	-4.5	L −11.5	159.5	U 159
Dec 17	@XAV	W 98-57	+2.5	W +43.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 20	vsMARQ	W 84-63	-6.5	W +14.5	151.5	U 147
Dec 22	vsUTU	W 92-69	-19.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 30	vsBTLR	W 89-85	-5.5	L −1.5	156.5	O 174
Jan 4	@HALL	L 54-56	+3.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 110

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−13.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−14.5

UMES

W 84-45

+5.5

UND

W 75-60

−14.5

BAY

L 74-81

−3.5

ISU

L 60-78

−8.5

ORE

W 76-66

+7.5

NICH

W 96-76

+1.5

NEB

L 50-71

−15.5

KSU

L 76-83

−11.5

XAV

W 98-57

+43.5

MARQ

W 84-63

+14.5

UTU

W 92-69

+3.5

BTLR

W 89-85

−1.5

HALL

L 54-56

+1.5

covered 7didn’t cover 8avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−1.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−11.5

UMES

W 84-45

−6.5

UND

W 75-60

−20.5

BAY

L 74-81

+0.5

ISU

L 60-78

−14.5

ORE

W 76-66

−8.5

NICH

W 96-76

+28.5

NEB

L 50-71

−34.5

KSU

L 76-83

−0.5

XAV

W 98-57

+3.5

MARQ

W 84-63

−4.5

UTU

W 92-69

+13.5

BTLR

W 89-85

+17.5

HALL

L 54-56

−33.5

over 5under 10avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Villanova

14 games played

Straight up

12-2

86% wins

Against the spread

10-4

71% covers · avg +4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-8

43% overs · avg −2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-286%

L W W W W W W W L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-471%

W W W L W L W W L W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-843%

U O U O U O U O U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBYU	L 66-71	+9.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 137
Nov 8	vsQUC	W 94-74	-17.5	W +2.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 11	vsSHU	W 94-60	-19.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 154
Nov 15	vsDUQ	W 87-77	-10.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 164
Nov 19	@LAS	W 70-55	-12.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 125
Nov 25	vsODU	W 89-75	-22.5	L −8.5	147.5	O 164
Dec 1	vsTEM	W 74-56	-14.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 6	vsPENN	W 90-63	-18.5	W +8.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 9	@MICH	L 61-89	+17.5	L −10.5	156.5	U 150
Dec 13	vsPITT	W 79-61	-10.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 140
Dec 19	vsWIS	W 76-66	+3.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 142
Dec 23	@HALL	W 64-56	+1.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 120
Dec 31	vsDEP	W 71-66	-12.5	L −7.5	139.5	U 137
Jan 3	@BTLR	W 85-67	+2.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BYU

L 66-71

+4.5

QUC

W 94-74

+2.5

SHU

W 94-60

+14.5

DUQ

W 87-77

−0.5

LAS

W 70-55

+2.5

ODU

W 89-75

−8.5

TEM

W 74-56

+3.5

PENN

W 90-63

+8.5

MICH

L 61-89

−10.5

PITT

W 79-61

+7.5

WIS

W 76-66

+13.5

HALL

W 64-56

+9.5

DEP

W 71-66

−7.5

BTLR

W 85-67

+20.5

covered 10didn’t cover 4avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BYU

L 66-71

−16.5

QUC

W 94-74

+17.5

SHU

W 94-60

−6.5

DUQ

W 87-77

+12.5

LAS

W 70-55

−19.5

ODU

W 89-75

+16.5

TEM

W 74-56

−16.5

PENN

W 90-63

+2.5

MICH

L 61-89

−6.5

PITT

W 79-61

+1.5

WIS

W 76-66

−10.5

HALL

W 64-56

−15.5

DEP

W 71-66

−2.5

BTLR

W 85-67

+2.5

over 6under 8avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Creighton @ Villanova

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Creighton

Villanova

Creighton

Villanova