Fiserv Forum · at Marquette
Closing line
MARQ -17.5✓ VAL covered by 14.5
MARQ -17.5✓ VAL covered by 14.5Closing total146.5Over by 0.5
 VAL | This season | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-4 |
| 4-3 | ATS | 3-5 |
| 2-5 | O/U | 4-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: VAL 66–82 MARQ · ✓ MARQ (92%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAL | 27 | 38 | 7 | 72 |
| MARQ | 23 | 42 | 10 | 75 |
1st half: VAL 27, MARQ 23 (VAL by 4). The model had MARQ by 9.7 and a total of 69.5 (actual 50).
Team stats
| VAL | MARQ | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-62 45% | Field goals | 21-60 35% |
| 8-26 31% | 3-pointers | 6-21 29% |
| 8-12 67% | Free throws | 27-32 84% |
| 40 11 off | Rebounds | 38 13 off |
| 14 | Assists | 12 |
| 6 | Steals | 9 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 21 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 23 | Fouls | 17 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 3 | Fast-break points | 33 |
Players
| VAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brody Whitaker G | 36 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4-12 | 1-5 |
| Shon Tupuola F | 32 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Isaiah Barnes G | 29 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3-6 | 1-2 |
| JT Pettigrew F | 27 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7-11 | 0-3 |
| Rakim Chaney G | 21 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 5-7 | 3-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mark Brown Jr. G | 26 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1-10 | 1-7 |
| Owen Dease F | 25 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 5-6 | 2-2 |
| Tucker Tornatta F | 19 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Justus McNair G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Carter Hopoi F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Joe Vick, Sader Servilus, Kyonte Thomas, Kobe Walker, Camden Webster, Nick Lombardi, Jayden Watson
| MARQ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Ross G | 41 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 4-11 | 1-4 |
| Ben Gold F | 38 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 5-8 | 3-6 |
| Nigel James Jr. G | 36 | 21 | 4 | 5 | 7-16 | 1-2 |
| Caedin Hamilton F | 27 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| Zaide Lowery G | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-7 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Adrien Stevens G | 29 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Royce Parham F | 18 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-3 |
| Tre Norman G | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Michael Phillips II SF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Joshua Clark F | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Damarius Owens SF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Sean Jones, Jonah Lucas, Casey O'Malley, Braeden Brenn, Sheek Pearson, Ian Miletic
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMARQ -17.5
ModelMARQ -16.4
Model edgeVAL +1.1
W VAL covered
Total
Market146.5
Model148.4
Model edgeOver 1.9
W Over
Projected score
VAL 66 · MARQ 82.4
VAL 72 · MARQ 75
Win probability
MARQ 92%
1st half
Spread
MARQ -9.7
VAL -4.0
Total
69.5
50 points
Projected score
VAL 29.9 · MARQ 39.6
VAL 27 · MARQ 23
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMARQ -17.5
no move
CloseMARQ -17.5
No change since the open
Total
Open147.5
▼ 1
Close146.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
VAL +1000 · MARQ -1800
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MARQ -17.5 · unchangedmodel MARQ -16.5
model MARQ -16.5
Opened 147.5 · closed 146.5 · moved 1 downmodel 148.5
model 148.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VALlast 7 | 5-2 71% | 4-3 57% | 2-5 29% |
| MARQlast 8 | 4-4 50% | 3-5 38% | 4-4 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Valparaiso
7 games played
Straight up
5-2
71% wins
Against the spread
4-3
57% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-5
29% overs · avg −11.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vs
EIU
EIUW 66-63
−2.5
7
@
UK
UKL 59-107
−15.5
12
vs
NICH
NICHW 68-63
+2.5
16
vs
BRY
BRYW 68-50
+11.5
19
@
CLE
CLEW 90-75
+17.5
26
vs
USI
USIL 56-64
−17.5
29
vs
WMU
WMUW 84-55
+24.5
covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−15.5
7
@UK
UKL 59-107
+8.5
12
vsNICH
NICHW 68-63
−13.5
16
vsBRY
BRYW 68-50
−25.5
19
@CLE
CLEW 90-75
+6.5
26
vsUSI
USIL 56-64
−30.5
29
vsWMU
WMUW 84-55
−7.5
over 2under 5avg −11.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Marquette
8 games played
Straight up
4-4
50% wins
Against the spread
3-5
38% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-4
50% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs UALB | W 80-53 | -24.5 | W +2.5 | 149.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 5 | vs SOU | W 100-82 | -24.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 9 | vs IU | L 77-100 | +3.5 | L −19.5 | 156.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 12 | vs LR | W 89-49 | -21.5 | W +18.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 15 | vs MD | L 82-89 | -8.5 | L −15.5 | 146.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 19 | vs DAY | L 71-77 | -6.5 | L −12.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 22 | vs CMU | W 85-71 | -25.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 28 | vs OU | L 74-75 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 162.5 | U 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUALB
UALBW 80-53
+2.5
5
vsSOU
SOUW 100-82
−6.5
9
vsIU
IUL 77-100
−19.5
12
vsLR
LRW 89-49
+18.5
15
vsMD
MDL 82-89
−15.5
19
vsDAY
DAYL 71-77
−12.5
22
vsCMU
CMUW 85-71
−11.5
28
vsOU
OUL 74-75
+0.5
covered 3didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUALB
UALBW 80-53
−16.5
5
vsSOU
SOUW 100-82
+26.5
9
vsIU
IUL 77-100
+20.5
12
vsLR
LRW 89-49
−17.5
15
vsMD
MDL 82-89
+24.5
19
vsDAY
DAYL 71-77
−3.5
22
vsCMU
CMUW 85-71
+3.5
28
vsOU
OUL 74-75
−13.5
over 4under 4avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Valparaiso
5-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs W Michigan84–55
- Lvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles56–64
- W@ Cleveland St90–75
- Wvs Bryant68–50
- Wvs Nicholls68–63
3 days since their last game.
Marquette
4-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Oklahoma74–75
- Wvs C Michigan85–71
- Lvs Dayton71–77
- Lvs Maryland82–89
- Wvs Little Rock89–49
4 days since their last game.