Mercyhurst Lakers at Lafayette Leopards: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 5, 7:00 PM ETKirby Sports Center · at Lafayette

#331MERCMercyhurst71final

Final

#310LAFLafayette79▲ winner

Closing lineNo line yet

Closing total—

Season records: Mercyhurst and Lafayette
MERC	This season	LAF
2-5	Record	1-7
5-2	ATS	3-5
2-5	O/U	6-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MERC 66–68 LAF · ✓ LAF (54%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MERC	34	37	71
LAF	34	45	79

1st half: MERC 34, LAF 34 (tied). The model had LAF by 0.6 and a total of 62.7 (actual 68).

Team stats

MERC		LAF
30-68 44%	Field goals	25-50 50%
5-17 29%	3-pointers	14-23 61%
6-8 75%	Free throws	15-16 94%
30 14 off	Rebounds	33 9 off
18	Assists	16
9	Steals	2
8	Blocks	4
6	Turnovers	15
13	Fouls	10
36	Points in paint	22
6	Fast-break points	10

Players

MERC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jake Lemelman G	38	12	1	8	5-15	2-4
Bernie Blunt III G	37	17	3	1	6-14	1-5
Qadir Martin F	34	9	7	2	3-9	1-2
Mykolas Ivanauskas F	28	14	4	0	7-15	0-2
Christian Gamble G	22	9	2	2	4-7	1-2
Bench
DeShaun Jackson Jr. PG	18	8	1	3	4-5	0-1
James Thomas F	9	2	4	2	1-1	0-0
Cameron Johnson F	9	0	3	0	0-2	0-1
Sean Lang G	5	0	2	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kaden Fuhrmann, Or Faran, Chris Leman, Brady Conner, Emilis Butkus, Vladimir Pavlovic

LAF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Andrew Phillips G	37	14	8	0	4-11	2-7
Christian Humphrey-Rembert F	36	20	8	0	7-9	6-7
Caleb Williams G	35	24	2	4	6-12	6-9
Mark Butler G	30	9	0	7	3-5	0-0
Shareef Jackson F	25	10	8	4	5-10	0-0
Bench
Luke Bevilacqua F	12	2	2	1	0-1	0-0
Folabomi Fayemi G	11	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Ashton Wallace G	8	0	0	0	0-2	0-0
Malik Rasul F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Misha Bednostin C	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Justin Vander Baan, Beckett Currie, KaiMani Murdock, Luke Azzinaro, Chris Rubayo, Luka Savicevic, Ryan Pettit, TJ Berger, Joshua Wyche

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LAF -1.2	—
Total	—	133.7	—
Projected score	—	MERC 66.2 · LAF 67.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LAF -0.6	PK
1H total	62.7	68
1H projected score	MERC 31 · LAF 31.7	MERC 34 · LAF 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MERC LWWWL	5-2	71%	4-2	—
LAF WLLWL	3-5	38%	1-3	—

Venue/role: MERC away; LAF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MERC UOOUU	2-5	29%	2-5
LAF OOUUO	6-2	75%	1-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MERClast 7	2-5 29%	5-2 71%	2-5 29%
LAFlast 8	1-7 13%	3-5 38%	6-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MERC 0–1 LAFLAF leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MERC 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 7, 2024-25	LAF 77 @ MERC 73	MERC +2.5	LAF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mercyhurst

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −10.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L W L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-529%

U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NU	L 47-70	+26.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 6	@LUC	W 73-65	+21.5	W +29.5	144.5	U 138
Nov 12	@CAN	L 55-58	-1.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 113
Nov 15	vsMORG	W 86-72	-6.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 20	@M-OH	L 71-76	+15.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 147
Nov 23	@MRSH	L 60-69	+11.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 129
Nov 30	@WVU	L 38-70	+21.5	L −10.5	127.5	U 108

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-70

+3.5

LUC

W 73-65

+29.5

CAN

L 55-58

−4.5

MORG

W 86-72

+7.5

M-OH

L 71-76

+10.5

MRSH

L 60-69

+2.5

WVU

L 38-70

−10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-70

−23.5

LUC

W 73-65

−6.5

CAN

L 55-58

−22.5

MORG

W 86-72

+11.5

M-OH

L 71-76

+7.5

MRSH

L 60-69

−18.5

WVU

L 38-70

−19.5

over 2under 5avg −10.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lafayette

8 games played

Straight up

1-7

13% wins

Against the spread

3-5

38% covers · avg −4.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-2

75% overs · avg +0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-713%

L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-538%

W L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-275%

O O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@JOES	L 76-85	+13.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 161
Nov 8	@TEX	L 60-97	+25.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 13	vsCOR	L 78-97	+4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 17	@WVU	L 59-81	+24.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 140
Nov 21	@STO	L 70-74	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 28	vsLEM	L 63-76	-4.5	L −17.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 29	vsBALL	W 55-37	+1.5	W +19.5	140.5	U 92
Nov 30	vsMONM	L 74-88	+1.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+4.5

TEX

L 60-97

−11.5

COR

L 78-97

−14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+2.5

STO

L 70-74

−5.5

LEM

L 63-76

−17.5

BALL

W 55-37

+19.5

MONM

L 74-88

−12.5

covered 3didn’t cover 5avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+22.5

TEX

L 60-97

+3.5

COR

L 78-97

+14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+4.5

STO

L 70-74

+2.5

LEM

L 63-76

−12.5

BALL

W 55-37

−48.5

MONM

L 74-88

+20.5

over 6under 2avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mercyhurst @ Lafayette

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Mercyhurst

Lafayette

Mercyhurst

Lafayette