Queens University Royals at Virginia Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 4:00 PM ETJohn Paul Jones Arena · at Virginia

Final

#20UVAVirginia94▲ winner

Closing lineUVA -25.5✓ QUC covered by 0.5

Closing total160.5Over by 2.5

Season records: Queens University Royals and Virginia
QUC	This season	UVA
2-4	Record	5-1
2-4	ATS	4-2
4-2	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: QUC 70–90 UVA · ✓ UVA (96%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
QUC	29	40	69
UVA	46	48	94

1st half: QUC 29, UVA 46 (UVA by 17). The model had UVA by 11.9 and a total of 75.2 (actual 75).

Team stats

QUC		UVA
24-63 38%	Field goals	32-60 53%
9-29 31%	3-pointers	15-33 45%
12-18 67%	Free throws	15-22 68%
35 18 off	Rebounds	41 14 off
12	Assists	24
6	Steals	7
0	Blocks	8
11	Turnovers	8
21	Fouls	17
28	Points in paint	30
5	Fast-break points	12

Players

QUC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nasir Mann G	31	18	3	0	7-11	1-4
Carson Schwieger F	25	9	2	1	3-7	3-7
Chris Ashby G	25	2	3	1	1-9	0-6
Jordan Watford G	25	10	5	5	4-8	0-0
Avantae Parker F	17	4	7	0	1-5	0-1
Bench
Maban Jabriel G	22	8	6	1	3-9	2-5
Yoav Berman F	19	10	3	0	4-7	2-3
Isaiah Henry G	16	3	2	1	0-3	0-2
Gus Larson F	12	5	1	2	1-3	1-1
Kam Clark G	6	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Reid Celestin F	2	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Colby Christiansen, Danzelle Bullock Coles, Jacob Brandly, Jimma James, Tyler Crider, Saif-Allah Zatari, Seamus Wilson, Matthew Walter

UVA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Sam Lewis G	26	15	2	4	6-9	3-5
Johann Grunloh C	23	13	10	2	4-5	2-2
Thijs De Ridder F	21	21	2	2	8-10	2-3
Dallin Hall G	21	0	2	5	0-4	0-3
Malik Thomas G	21	8	2	3	2-8	0-5
Bench
Chance Mallory G	24	11	8	4	4-8	3-6
Jacari White G	18	11	3	2	4-9	3-7
Devin Tillis F	18	13	5	1	3-4	2-2
Ugonna Onyenso C	17	2	3	0	1-2	0-0
Elijah Gertrude G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Martin Carrere G	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Carter Lang F	2	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Owen Odom G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Desmond Roberts G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Silas Barksdale

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UVA -25.5	UVA -20.1	QUC +5.4	W QUC covered
Total	160.5	160.6	Over 0.1	W Over
Projected score	—	QUC 70.3 · UVA 90.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UVA -11.9	UVA -17.0
1H total	75.2	75
1H projected score	QUC 31.6 · UVA 43.6	QUC 29 · UVA 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
QUC LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-2	1-3
UVA LWWWL	4-2	67%	3-1	4-2

Venue/role: QUC away, as underdog; UVA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
QUC OOUOO	4-2	67%	2-4
UVA UUOOU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
QUClast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	4-2 67%
UVAlast 6	5-1 83%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Queens University Royals

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +9 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

U O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWIN	L 74-81	+3.5	L −3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 8	@VILL	L 74-94	+17.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 11	@DUQ	L 81-87	+12.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 15	vsSHU	W 81-64	-5.5	W +11.5	165.5	U 145
Nov 20	vsUNCG	W 101-94	-7.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 195
Nov 23	@FUR	L 79-90	+8.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−3.5

VILL

L 74-94

−2.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+6.5

SHU

W 81-64

+11.5

UNCG

W 101-94

−0.5

FUR

L 79-90

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−8.5

VILL

L 74-94

+17.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+5.5

SHU

W 81-64

−20.5

UNCG

W 101-94

+44.5

FUR

L 79-90

+15.5

over 4under 2avg +9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Virginia

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsRID	W 87-53	-26.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 7	vsNCCU	W 81-62	-34.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 143
Nov 11	vsHAMP	W 91-53	-24.5	W +13.5	148.5	U 144
Nov 15	vsMRSH	W 104-78	-20.5	W +5.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 21	vsNU	W 83-78	-4.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 161
Nov 23	vsBTLR	L 73-80	-6.5	L −13.5	155.5	U 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RID

W 87-53

+7.5

NCCU

W 81-62

−15.5

HAMP

W 91-53

+13.5

MRSH

W 104-78

+5.5

W 83-78

+0.5

BTLR

L 73-80

−13.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RID

W 87-53

−8.5

NCCU

W 81-62

−8.5

HAMP

W 91-53

−4.5

MRSH

W 104-78

+26.5

W 83-78

+11.5

BTLR

L 73-80

−2.5

over 2under 4avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Queens University Royals @ Virginia

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Queens University Royals

Virginia

Queens University Royals

Virginia