Acrisure Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
STAN -2.5✓ STAN covered by 1.5
STAN -2.5✓ STAN covered by 1.5Closing total142.5Under by 2.5
| STAN | This season | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-2 |
| 2-3 | ATS | 1-5 |
| 3-2 | O/U | 1-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: STAN 72–73 MINN · ✗ MINN (56%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| STAN | 31 | 41 | 72 |
| MINN | 34 | 34 | 68 |
1st half: STAN 31, MINN 34 (MINN by 3). The model had MINN by 0.9 and a total of 67.9 (actual 65).
Team stats
| STAN | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-67 37% | Field goals | 23-45 51% |
| 8-31 26% | 3-pointers | 9-20 45% |
| 14-18 78% | Free throws | 13-18 72% |
| 36 17 off | Rebounds | 25 6 off |
| 13 | Assists | 13 |
| 10 | Steals | 1 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 17 | Fouls | 19 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| STAN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebuka Okorie G | 38 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 9-21 | 2-7 |
| Benny Gealer G | 37 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 4-12 | 4-9 |
| Chisom Okpara F | 29 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4-15 | 1-7 |
| Aidan Cammann F | 28 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| AJ Rohosy F | 20 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ryan Agarwal G | 30 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2-9 | 1-5 |
| Kristers Skrinda F | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jeremy Dent-Smith G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Oskar Giltay C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Cameron Grant G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Anthony Batson Jr., Donavin Young, Ethan Kitch, Evan Stinson, Tallis Toure, Myles Jones, Jaylen Thompson
| MINN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Tyson G | 39 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 6-10 | 1-4 |
| Jaylen Crocker-Johnson F | 38 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 7-15 | 3-5 |
| Isaac Asuma G | 27 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2-5 | 2-3 |
| Grayson Grove F | 19 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Chansey Willis Jr. G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Langston Reynolds G | 33 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Bobby Durkin F | 24 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Kai Shinholster G | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Chance Stephens, Nehemiah Turner, Robert Vaihola, Max Lorenson, Maximus Gizzi, RJ Spencer, BJ Omot
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketSTAN -2.5
ModelMINN -1.8
Model edgeMINN +4.3
L STAN covered
Total
Market142.5
Model144.9
Model edgeOver 2.4
L Under
Projected score
STAN 71.6 · MINN 73.3
STAN 72 · MINN 68
Win probability
MINN 56%
1st half
Spread
MINN -0.9
MINN -3.0
Total
67.9
65 points
Projected score
STAN 33.5 · MINN 34.4
STAN 31 · MINN 34
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSTAN -2.5
no move
CloseSTAN -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open144.5
▼ 2
Close142.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
STAN -142 · MINN +120
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened STAN -2.5 · unchangedmodel MINN -2
model MINN -2
Opened 144.5 · closed 142.5 · moved 2 downmodel 145
model 145
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| STANlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 2-3 40% | 3-2 60% |
| MINNlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 1-5 17% | 1-5 17% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Stanford
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
2-3
40% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-2
60% overs · avg +8.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vs
PRST
PRSTW 89-79
−1.5
8
vs
MONT
MONTW 91-68
+10.5
12
vs
MTST
MTSTW 77-68
−5.5
18
vs
UL
ULW 93-66
+6.5
21
vs
SEA
SEAL 69-77
−18.5
covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsPRST
PRSTW 89-79
+23.5
8
vsMONT
MONTW 91-68
+8.5
12
vsMTST
MTSTW 77-68
−3.5
18
vsUL
ULW 93-66
+19.5
21
vsSEA
SEAL 69-77
−6.5
over 3under 2avg +8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Minnesota
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
1-5
17% covers · avg −8.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-5
17% overs · avg −9.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
GWEB
GWEBW 87-60
−1.5
8
vs
ALCN
ALCNW 95-50
+13.5
12
@
MIZ
MIZL 60-83
−15.5
15
vs
GB
GBW 72-65
−18.5
18
vs
CHST
CHSTW 66-54
−15.5
22
vs
SF
SFL 65-77
−13.5
covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsGWEB
GWEBW 87-60
−1.5
8
vsALCN
ALCNW 95-50
−7.5
12
@MIZ
MIZL 60-83
−15.5
15
vsGB
GBW 72-65
−9.5
18
vsCHST
CHSTW 66-54
−24.5
22
vsSF
SFL 65-77
+1.5
over 1under 5avg −9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Stanford
4-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Seattle U69–77
- Wvs Louisiana93–66
- Wvs Montana St77–68
- Wvs Montana91–68
- Wvs Portland St89–79
6 days since their last game.
Minnesota
4-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs San Francisco65–77
- Wvs Chicago St66–54
- Wvs Green Bay72–65
- L@ Missouri60–83
- Wvs Alcorn St95–50
5 days since their last game.