Ocean Center · Neutral site
Closing line
PITT -1.5✓ UCF covered by 11.5
PITT -1.5✓ UCF covered by 11.5Closing total149.5Under by 5.5
| PITT | This season | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 3-2 | ATS | 2-3 |
| 1-4 | O/U | 3-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PITT 76–78 UCF · ✓ UCF (55%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PITT | 36 | 31 | 67 |
| UCF | 38 | 39 | 77 |
1st half: PITT 36, UCF 38 (UCF by 2). The model had UCF by 0.7 and a total of 72.0 (actual 74).
Team stats
| PITT | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-54 39% | Field goals | 32-61 52% |
| 7-27 26% | 3-pointers | 6-18 33% |
| 18-21 86% | Free throws | 7-12 58% |
| 28 12 off | Rebounds | 37 16 off |
| 9 | Assists | 13 |
| 4 | Steals | 4 |
| 5 | Blocks | 0 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 46 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| PITT | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Corhen F | 35 | 17 | 11 | 2 | 6-13 | 0-4 |
| Damarco Minor G | 33 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 5-8 | 4-7 |
| Brandin Cummings G | 30 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2-9 | 0-3 |
| Omari Witherspoon G | 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Roman Siulepa F | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Barry Dunning Jr. G | 33 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 3-7 | 2-6 |
| Nojus Indrusaitis G | 26 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
| Papa Amadou Kante F | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Benjamin Mayhew, Jajuan Nelson, Macari Moore, Amdy Ndiaye, Henry Lau, Kieran Mullen, Dishon Jackson
| UCF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Themus Fulks G | 33 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 7-12 | 3-3 |
| Jamichael Stillwell F | 32 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 5-9 | 1-2 |
| Riley Kugel G | 25 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 8-14 | 1-3 |
| Jordan Burks F | 24 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4-9 | 0-4 |
| John Bol C | 22 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Carmelo Pacheco G | 23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Devan Cambridge F | 19 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| George Beale Jr. G | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Kris Parker G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Chris Johnson G | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jeremy Foumena C | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Elijah Hulsewe, Poohpha Warakulnukroh, Zachary Johnson, Tanner Jones
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketPITT -1.5
ModelUCF -1.4
Model edgeUCF +2.9
W UCF covered
Total
Market149.5
Model153.7
Model edgeOver 4.2
L Under
Projected score
PITT 76.1 · UCF 77.6
PITT 67 · UCF 77
Win probability
UCF 55%
1st half
Spread
UCF -0.7
UCF -2.0
Total
72.0
74 points
Projected score
PITT 35.6 · UCF 36.3
PITT 36 · UCF 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUCF -1.5
3 → PITT
ClosePITT -1.5
3 pts toward PITT
Total
Open155.5
▼ 6
Close149.5
Down 6 since the open
Moneyline
PITT -125 · UCF +105
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UCF -1.5 · closed PITT -1.5 · moved 3 toward PITTmodel UCF -1.5
model UCF -1.5
Opened 155.5 · closed 149.5 · moved 6 downmodel 153.5
model 153.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PITTlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 3-2 60% | 1-4 20% |
| UCFlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 2-3 40% | 3-2 60% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Pitt
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-4
20% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
YSU
YSUW 74-59
+0.5
7
vs
LONG
LONGW 78-60
+3.5
10
vs
EMU
EMUW 78-66
−3.5
13
@
WVU
WVUL 49-71
−16.5
17
vs
BUCK
BUCKW 84-50
+17.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsYSU
YSUW 74-59
−12.5
7
vsLONG
LONGW 78-60
−7.5
10
vsEMU
EMUW 78-66
+2.5
13
@WVU
WVUL 49-71
−14.5
17
vsBUCK
BUCKW 84-50
−7.5
over 1under 4avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
UCF
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
2-3
40% covers · avg +4.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-2
60% overs · avg +6.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
HOF
HOFW 82-78
−4.5
8
vs
VAN
VANL 93-105
−1.5
11
vs
FAMU
FAMUW 97-60
+13.5
14
@
TA&M
TA&MW 86-74
+22.5
17
vs
OAK
OAKW 87-83
−9.5
covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsHOF
HOFW 82-78
+19.5
8
vsVAN
VANL 93-105
+31.5
11
vsFAMU
FAMUW 97-60
−12.5
14
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-74
−12.5
17
vsOAK
OAKW 87-83
+6.5
over 3under 2avg +6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Pitt
4-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Bucknell84–50
- L@ West Virginia49–71
- Wvs E Michigan78–66
- Wvs Longwood78–60
- Wvs Youngstown St74–59
3 days since their last game.
UCF
4-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Oakland87–83
- W@ Texas A&M86–74
- Wvs Florida A&M97–60
- Lvs Vanderbilt93–105
- Wvs Hofstra82–78
3 days since their last game.