Purcell Pavilion · at Notre Dame
Closing line
ND -14.5✓ ND covered by 9.5
ND -14.5✓ ND covered by 9.5Closing total136.5Over by 3.5
 EVAN | This season | ND |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | Record | 8-3 |
| 4-4 | ATS | 7-4 |
| 4-4 | O/U | 6-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: EVAN 62–80 ND · ✓ ND (94%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EVAN | 29 | 29 | 58 |
| ND | 41 | 41 | 82 |
1st half: EVAN 29, ND 41 (ND by 12). The model had ND by 10.6 and a total of 66.3 (actual 70).
Team stats
| EVAN | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-53 40% | Field goals | 28-59 47% |
| 8-24 33% | 3-pointers | 14-25 56% |
| 8-13 62% | Free throws | 12-17 71% |
| 32 8 off | Rebounds | 38 10 off |
| 13 | Assists | 9 |
| 6 | Steals | 9 |
| 5 | Blocks | 0 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 21 | Fouls | 17 |
| 20 | Points in paint | 20 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 3 |
Players
| EVAN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Hemenway G | 29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Leif Moeller G | 28 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-4 |
| Keishon Porter G | 28 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3-9 | 1-3 |
| Joshua Hughes F | 28 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 5-9 | 4-8 |
| Connor Turnbull F | 26 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 6-11 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| AJ Casey F | 18 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| Kaia Berridge G | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Bryce Quinet G | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Trent Hundley F | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| James Dyson-Merwe F | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Weston Aigner G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Aaron Gutman, Leo Amari IV, Marlon Barnes Jr., Dakota Candler
| ND | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braeden Shrewsberry G | 32 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 9-12 | 8-10 |
| Cole Certa G | 26 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Garrett Sundra F | 22 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Carson Towt F | 19 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Jalen Haralson G | 19 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 4-16 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sir Mohammed G | 22 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 8-12 | 2-3 |
| Logan Imes G | 19 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Brady Koehler F | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Kebba Njie F | 17 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Brady Stevens G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Ryder Frost F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Matthew MacLellan F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Luke Devine, Tommy Ahneman, Markus Burton, Mark Zackery IV
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketND -14.5
ModelND -17.9
Model edgeND +3.4
W ND covered
Total
Market136.5
Model141.5
Model edgeOver 5.0
W Over
Projected score
EVAN 61.8 · ND 79.7
EVAN 58 · ND 82
Win probability
ND 94%
1st half
Spread
ND -10.6
ND -12.0
Total
66.3
70 points
Projected score
EVAN 27.8 · ND 38.5
EVAN 29 · ND 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenND -16.5
2 → EVAN
CloseND -14.5
2 pts toward EVAN
Total
Open138.5
▼ 2
Close136.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
EVAN +950 · ND -1650
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ND -16.5 · closed ND -14.5 · moved 2 toward EVANmodel ND -18
model ND -18
Opened 138.5 · closed 136.5 · moved 2 downmodel 141.5
model 141.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EVANlast 8 | 2-6 25% | 4-4 50% | 4-4 50% |
| ND | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Evansville
8 games played
Straight up
2-6
25% wins
Against the spread
4-4
50% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-4
50% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | @ PUR | L 51-82 | +33.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 12 | vs MTSU | L 72-77 | -2.5 | L −7.5 | 140.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 18 | vs UTA | L 76-84 | -2.5 | L −10.5 | 138.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs ORST | W 73-69 | +6.5 | W +10.5 | 136.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 23 | vs AKR | L 59-97 | +11.5 | L −26.5 | 156.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs COFC | L 59-78 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 141.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 3 | vs BALL | W 64-52 | -6.5 | W +5.5 | 136.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 6 | @ WKU | L 79-80 | +11.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
@PUR
PURL 51-82
+2.5
12
vsMTSU
MTSUL 72-77
−7.5
18
vsUTA
UTAL 76-84
−10.5
21
vsORST
ORSTW 73-69
+10.5
23
vsAKR
AKRL 59-97
−26.5
24
vsCOFC
COFCL 59-78
−14.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 64-52
+5.5
6
@WKU
WKUL 79-80
+10.5
covered 4didn’t cover 4avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
@PUR
PURL 51-82
−17.5
12
vsMTSU
MTSUL 72-77
+8.5
18
vsUTA
UTAL 76-84
+21.5
21
vsORST
ORSTW 73-69
+5.5
23
vsAKR
AKRL 59-97
−0.5
24
vsCOFC
COFCL 59-78
−4.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 64-52
−20.5
6
@WKU
WKUL 79-80
+11.5
over 4under 4avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Notre Dame
11 games played
Straight up
8-3
73% wins
Against the spread
7-4
64% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-5
55% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LIU | W 89-67 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 135.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 7 | vs DETM | W 102-70 | -21.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 11 | vs EIU | W 78-58 | -23.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 16 | @ OSU | L 63-64 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 19 | vs BELL | W 86-79 | -24.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 24 | vs KU | L 61-71 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 25 | vs RUTG | W 68-63 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 26 | vs HOU | L 56-66 | +11.5 | W +1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 2 | vs MIZ | W 76-71 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 5 | @ TCU | W 87-85 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 10 | vs IDHO | W 80-65 | -11.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+6.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+10.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−3.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
+8.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
−17.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−4.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−1.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
+1.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+6.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+8.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+3.5
covered 7didn’t cover 4avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+20.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+24.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−7.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
−29.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
+14.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−11.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−9.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
−10.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+0.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+30.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+0.5
over 6under 5avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Evansville
2-6 overall · 0-0 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Western KY79–80
- Wvs Ball State64–52
- Lvs Charleston59–78
- Lvs Akron59–97
- Wvs Oregon St73–69
A week or more of rest.
Notre Dame
8-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Idaho80–65
- W@ TCU87–85
- Wvs Missouri76–71
- Lvs Houston56–66
- Wvs Rutgers68–63
3 days since their last game.