KFC Yum! Center · at Louisville
Closing line
LOU -33.5✓ LOU covered by 7.5
LOU -33.5✓ LOU covered by 7.5Closing total162.5Under by 29.5
 EMU | This season | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 4-1 | ATS | 3-2 |
| 2-3 | O/U | 3-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: EMU 65–94 LOU · ✓ LOU (99%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EMU | 17 | 29 | 46 |
| LOU | 33 | 54 | 87 |
1st half: EMU 17, LOU 33 (LOU by 16). The model had LOU by 17.5 and a total of 74.8 (actual 50).
Team stats
| EMU | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 16-57 28% | Field goals | 30-62 48% |
| 2-15 13% | 3-pointers | 14-33 42% |
| 12-17 71% | Free throws | 13-19 68% |
| 36 11 off | Rebounds | 45 12 off |
| 5 | Assists | 18 |
| 6 | Steals | 6 |
| 0 | Blocks | 10 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 21 | Fouls | 17 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| EMU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammad Habhab F | 36 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 5-15 | 0-0 |
| Carlos Hart G | 28 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Addison Patterson F | 26 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3-11 | 1-2 |
| Jon Sanders II G | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-3 |
| Godslove Nwabude F | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mak Manciel G | 16 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| John Shanu II C | 16 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Mehki Ellison G | 12 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-5 | 0-0 |
| Aidan Rubio G | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Merritt Alderink F | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Gregory Lawson II G | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Braelon Green G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Mbaye N'Diaye G | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Cooper Smith G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac McKneely G | 27 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 6-10 | 5-9 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 24 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3-7 | 1-2 |
| Mikel Brown Jr. G | 24 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 4-12 | 1-5 |
| Ryan Conwell G | 20 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-5 |
| Sananda Fru F | 15 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Adrian Wooley G | 24 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
| Khani Rooths F | 22 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 19 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 4-6 | 3-4 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 17 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Vangelis Zougris F | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Will Hanke G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Spencer Legg G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cole Sherman, Mouhamed Camara, Kasean Pryor
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLOU -33.5
ModelLOU -29.1
Model edgeEMU +4.4
L LOU covered
Total
Market162.5
Model159.6
Model edgeUnder 2.9
W Under
Projected score
EMU 65.2 · LOU 94.4
EMU 46 · LOU 87
Win probability
LOU 99%
1st half
Spread
LOU -17.5
LOU -16.0
Total
74.8
50 points
Projected score
EMU 28.6 · LOU 46.1
EMU 17 · LOU 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -33.5
no move
CloseLOU -33.5
No change since the open
Total
Open161.5
▲ 1
Close162.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -33.5 · unchangedmodel LOU -29
model LOU -29
Opened 161.5 · closed 162.5 · moved 1 upmodel 159.5
model 159.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EMUlast 5 | 3-2 60% | 4-1 80% | 2-3 40% |
| LOUlast 5 | 5-0 100% | 3-2 60% | 3-2 60% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
E Michigan
5 games played
Straight up
3-2
60% wins
Against the spread
4-1
80% covers · avg +5.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg −5.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
GAST
GASTW 71-49
+18.5
10
@
PITT
PITTL 66-78
+3.5
14
vs
IUIN
IUINL 83-90
−11.5
18
@
DETM
DETMW 72-62
+11.5
21
vs
OAK
OAKW 97-91
+7.5
covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +5.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsGAST
GASTW 71-49
−29.5
10
@PITT
PITTL 66-78
+2.5
14
vsIUIN
IUINL 83-90
−13.5
18
@DETM
DETMW 72-62
−23.5
21
vsOAK
OAKW 97-91
+34.5
over 2under 3avg −5.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Louisville
5 games played
Straight up
5-0
100% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-2
60% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
SCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vs
JKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vs
UK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vs
OHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vs
CIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
over 3under 2avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
E Michigan
3-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Oakland97–91
- W@ Detroit Mercy72–62
- Lvs IU Indy83–90
- L@ Pitt66–78
- Wvs Georgia St71–49
3 days since their last game.
Louisville
5-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Cincinnati74–64
- Wvs Ohio106–81
- Wvs Kentucky96–88
- Wvs Jackson St106–70
- Wvs SC State104–45
3 days since their last game.