St. Bonaventure Bonnies at Buffalo Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 2:00 PM ETBroadview Arena · at Buffalo

Final

#237BUFBuffalo69final

Closing lineSBU -5.5✓ SBU covered by 2.5

Closing total144.5Over by 1.5

Season records: St Bonaventure and Buffalo
SBU	This season	BUF
7-1	Record	7-0
3-5	ATS	6-1
4-4	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SBU 76–70 BUF · ✓ SBU (69%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SBU	38	39	77
BUF	32	37	69

1st half: SBU 38, BUF 32 (SBU by 6). The model had SBU by 3.6 and a total of 68.3 (actual 70).

Team stats

SBU		BUF
28-60 47%	Field goals	27-50 54%
9-24 38%	3-pointers	8-21 38%
12-14 86%	Free throws	7-11 64%
36 17 off	Rebounds	21 5 off
20	Assists	14
13	Steals	6
2	Blocks	4
17	Turnovers	17
14	Fouls	14
34	Points in paint	34
15	Fast-break points	8

Players

SBU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Darryl Simmons II G	40	12	3	5	3-10	2-3
Dasonte Bowen G	33	11	3	3	4-9	2-5
Frank Mitchell F	32	11	13	3	4-8	0-0
Cayden Charles G	22	14	6	1	5-11	2-5
Joe Grahovac F	10	0	1	1	0-2	0-2
Bench
Daniel Egbuniwe F	30	15	3	3	6-10	1-3
Ilia Ermakov G	22	12	1	2	5-8	2-5
Andrew Osasuyi F	8	2	1	1	1-1	0-0
Achille Lonati G	3	0	0	1	0-1	0-1

Did not play: John Ikpotokin, Brayden Jackson, Xander Wedlow, Jack DeRose, Broek Ostrom, Amar'e Marshall

BUF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ryan Sabol G	36	21	0	2	8-15	5-10
Daniel Freitag G	35	17	4	7	6-10	2-4
Noah Batchelor G	33	5	4	1	2-7	0-4
Angelo Brizzi G	32	12	0	1	4-7	1-3
Tim Oboh F	24	6	5	0	3-4	0-0
Bench
Derrick Talton Jr. G	19	2	3	1	1-3	0-0
Ezra McKenna F	13	6	3	2	3-3	0-0
Mikhali Pocknett F	8	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Kyle Jones, Aleksa Vlajic, Matas Buteliauskas, Evan Romano, Omar Migues-Hibeljic, Daniel Shao

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SBU -5.5	SBU -5.8	SBU +0.3	W SBU covered
Total	144.5	145.8	Over 1.3	W Over
Projected score	—	SBU 75.8 · BUF 70

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SBU -3.6	SBU -6.0
1H total	68.3	70
1H projected score	SBU 36 · BUF 32.3	SBU 38 · BUF 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SBU LWLLW	3-5	38%	1-0	2-4
BUF WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-0	2-0

Venue/role: SBU away, as favorite; BUF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SBU OUOUU	4-4	50%	7-1
BUF UOUUU	3-4	43%	7-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SBUlast 8	7-1 88%	3-5 38%	4-4 50%
BUFlast 7	7-0 100%	6-1 86%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SBU 3–1 BUFSBU leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · SBU has won the last 2 meetings · SBU 1-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 7, 2024-25	BUF 55 @ SBU 65	SBU -17.5	BUF W
Dec 2, 2023-24	SBU 80 @ BUF 65	BUF +9.5	SBU W
Dec 3, 2022-23	SBU 66 @ BUF 83	BUF +2.5	BUF W
Dec 4, 2021-22	BUF 65 @ SBU 68	SBU -3.5	BUF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

St Bonaventure

8 games played

Straight up

7-1

88% wins

Against the spread

3-5

38% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-4

50% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-188%

W W W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-538%

W L L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-450%

U O O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBRAD	W 69-63	-1.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsCAN	W 89-70	-21.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsSIE	W 75-66	-9.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 15	vsYSU	W 84-80	-9.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 164
Nov 20	vsRMU	W 75-61	-11.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 25	vsUNC	L 70-85	+10.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 27	vsECU	W 67-58	-10.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 125
Nov 30	@FAU	W 70-65	+1.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRAD

W 69-63

+4.5

CAN

W 89-70

−2.5

SIE

W 75-66

−0.5

YSU

W 84-80

−5.5

RMU

W 75-61

+2.5

UNC

L 70-85

−4.5

ECU

W 67-58

−1.5

FAU

W 70-65

+6.5

covered 3didn’t cover 5avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRAD

W 69-63

−7.5

CAN

W 89-70

+22.5

SIE

W 75-66

+0.5

YSU

W 84-80

+17.5

RMU

W 75-61

−10.5

UNC

L 70-85

+2.5

ECU

W 67-58

−19.5

FAU

W 70-65

−11.5

over 4under 4avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Buffalo

7 games played

Straight up

7-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +7.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-0100%

W W W W W W W

7 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUSM	W 85-79	-3.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 164
Nov 7	vsGB	W 83-76	-3.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 159
Nov 11	@DEP	W 66-53	+18.5	W +31.5	153.5	U 119
Nov 18	vsUVM	W 94-90	+1.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 184
Nov 24	vsVMI	W 78-70	-5.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 26	vsBUCK	W 73-71	-4.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 29	@CAN	W 71-53	-9.5	W +8.5	139.5	U 124

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USM

W 85-79

+2.5

W 83-76

+3.5

DEP

W 66-53

+31.5

UVM

W 94-90

+5.5

VMI

W 78-70

+2.5

BUCK

W 73-71

−2.5

CAN

W 71-53

+8.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +7.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USM

W 85-79

+10.5

W 83-76

+11.5

DEP

W 66-53

−34.5

UVM

W 94-90

+42.5

VMI

W 78-70

−2.5

BUCK

W 73-71

−2.5

CAN

W 71-53

−15.5

over 3under 4avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

St Bonaventure @ Buffalo

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

St Bonaventure

Buffalo

St Bonaventure

Buffalo