Amerant Bank Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
FLA -14.5✓ GW covered by 4.5
FLA -14.5✓ GW covered by 4.5Closing total162.5Under by 12.5
 GW | This season | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 8-3 | Record | 5-4 |
| 5-6 | ATS | 3-6 |
| 7-4 | O/U | 3-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: GW 75–90 FLA · ✓ FLA (91%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GW | 27 | 43 | 70 |
| FLA | 30 | 50 | 80 |
1st half: GW 27, FLA 30 (FLA by 3). The model had FLA by 9.2 and a total of 77.2 (actual 57).
Team stats
| GW | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-65 42% | Field goals | 27-54 50% |
| 9-26 35% | 3-pointers | 6-27 22% |
| 7-19 37% | Free throws | 20-33 61% |
| 35 13 off | Rebounds | 43 12 off |
| 13 | Assists | 19 |
| 8 | Steals | 9 |
| 0 | Blocks | 5 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 24 | Fouls | 14 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 18 |
Players
| GW | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubu Benjamin G | 33 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1-7 | 1-5 |
| Tyrone Marshall Jr. F | 30 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 6-8 | 2-2 |
| Rafael Castro F | 26 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 6-9 | 0-0 |
| Trey Autry G | 25 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 4-8 | 2-4 |
| Christian Jones G | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jean Aranguren G | 18 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 4-7 | 2-2 |
| Garrett Johnson F | 17 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-9 | 1-6 |
| Tre Dinkins G | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Luke Hunger F | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-7 | 0-3 |
| Ty Bevins G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jalen Rougier-Roane, Mohamed Binzagr, Trey Moss, Amir Arrington, Vincent Chaudhri
| FLA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Haugh F | 36 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 8-15 | 2-7 |
| Xaivian Lee G | 35 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 6-10 | 4-7 |
| Alex Condon F | 33 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Boogie Fland G | 30 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 4-10 | 0-5 |
| Rueben Chinyelu C | 25 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Urban Klavzar G | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-4 |
| Micah Handlogten C | 15 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| CJ Ingram G | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Isaiah Brown G | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: AJ Brown, Viktor Mikic, Olivier Rioux, Alex Kovatchev, Alex Lloyd, Cooper Josefsberg
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketFLA -14.5
ModelFLA -15.5
Model edgeFLA +1.0
L GW covered
Total
Market162.5
Model165.0
Model edgeOver 2.5
L Under
Projected score
GW 74.8 · FLA 90.2
GW 70 · FLA 80
Win probability
FLA 91%
1st half
Spread
FLA -9.2
FLA -3.0
Total
77.2
57 points
Projected score
GW 34 · FLA 43.2
GW 27 · FLA 30
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFLA -12.5
2 → FLA
CloseFLA -14.5
2 pts toward FLA
Total
Open163.5
▼ 1
Close162.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
GW +900 · FLA -1600
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FLA -12.5 · closed FLA -14.5 · moved 2 toward FLAmodel FLA -15.5
model FLA -15.5
Opened 163.5 · closed 162.5 · moved 1 downmodel 165
model 165
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GW | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
| FLAlast 9 | 5-4 56% | 3-6 33% | 3-6 33% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
G Washington
11 games played
Straight up
8-3
73% wins
Against the spread
5-6
45% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-4
64% overs · avg +5.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ME | W 67-47 | -20.5 | L −0.5 | 143.5 | U 114 |
| Nov 8 | vs USF | W 99-95 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 159.5 | O 194 |
| Nov 12 | vs AMER | W 107-67 | -17.5 | W +22.5 | 151.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 15 | vs ODU | W 96-73 | -15.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 19 | vs UMBC | W 89-52 | -22.5 | W +14.5 | 160.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 23 | vs MCN | L 86-92 | -5.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 24 | vs MTSU | W 92-79 | -9.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 25 | vs MUR | L 95-96 | -7.5 | L −8.5 | 167.5 | O 191 |
| Dec 2 | @ ARMY | W 84-70 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 6 | vs W&M | W 99-86 | -13.5 | L −0.5 | 174.5 | O 185 |
| Dec 10 | vs DEL | L 58-70 | -21.5 | L −33.5 | 152.5 | U 128 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsME
MEW 67-47
−0.5
8
vsUSF
USFW 99-95
+5.5
12
vsAMER
AMERW 107-67
+22.5
15
vsODU
ODUW 96-73
+7.5
19
vsUMBC
UMBCW 89-52
+14.5
23
vsMCN
MCNL 86-92
−11.5
24
vsMTSU
MTSUW 92-79
+3.5
25
vsMUR
MURL 95-96
−8.5
2
@ARMY
ARMYW 84-70
−5.5
6
vsW&M
W&MW 99-86
−0.5
10
vsDEL
DELL 58-70
−33.5
covered 5didn’t cover 6avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsME
MEW 67-47
−29.5
8
vsUSF
USFW 99-95
+34.5
12
vsAMER
AMERW 107-67
+22.5
15
vsODU
ODUW 96-73
+13.5
19
vsUMBC
UMBCW 89-52
−19.5
23
vsMCN
MCNL 86-92
+20.5
24
vsMTSU
MTSUW 92-79
+12.5
25
vsMUR
MURL 95-96
+23.5
2
@ARMY
ARMYW 84-70
−2.5
6
vsW&M
W&MW 99-86
+10.5
10
vsDEL
DELL 58-70
−24.5
over 7under 4avg +5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Florida
9 games played
Straight up
5-4
56% wins
Against the spread
3-6
33% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-6
33% overs · avg −8.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ARIZ | L 87-93 | -3.5 | L −9.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 6 | vs UNF | W 104-64 | -43.5 | L −3.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Nov 11 | vs FSU | W 78-76 | -17.5 | L −15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 16 | vs MIA | W 82-68 | -10.5 | W +3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 21 | vs MRMK | W 80-45 | -36.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 27 | vs TCU | L 80-84 | -11.5 | L −15.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs PROV | W 90-78 | -12.5 | L −0.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Dec 2 | @ DUKE | L 66-67 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 9 | vs CONN | L 73-77 | +4.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsARIZ
ARIZL 87-93
−9.5
6
vsUNF
UNFW 104-64
−3.5
11
vsFSU
FSUW 78-76
−15.5
16
vsMIA
MIAW 82-68
+3.5
21
vsMRMK
MRMKW 80-45
−1.5
27
vsTCU
TCUL 80-84
−15.5
28
vsPROV
PROVW 90-78
−0.5
2
@DUKE
DUKEL 66-67
+8.5
9
vsCONN
CONNL 73-77
+0.5
covered 3didn’t cover 6avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsARIZ
ARIZL 87-93
+15.5
6
vsUNF
UNFW 104-64
−1.5
11
vsFSU
FSUW 78-76
−26.5
16
vsMIA
MIAW 82-68
−21.5
21
vsMRMK
MRMKW 80-45
−33.5
27
vsTCU
TCUL 80-84
+8.5
28
vsPROV
PROVW 90-78
−1.5
2
@DUKE
DUKEL 66-67
−24.5
9
vsCONN
CONNL 73-77
+4.5
over 3under 6avg −8.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
G Washington
8-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Delaware58–70
- Wvs William & Mary99–86
- W@ Army84–70
- Lvs Murray St95–96
- Wvs MTSU92–79
3 days since their last game.
Florida
5-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs UConn73–77
- L@ Duke66–67
- Wvs Providence90–78
- Lvs TCU80–84
- Wvs Merrimack80–45
4 days since their last game.