Delaware Blue Hens at George Washington Revolutionaries: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 10, 7:00 PM ETCharles E. Smith Center · at G Washington

#206DELDelaware70▲ winner

Final

Closing lineGW -21.5✓ DEL covered by 33.5

Closing total152.5Under by 24.5

Season records: Delaware and G Washington
DEL	This season	GW
2-5	Record	8-2
3-4	ATS	5-5
3-4	O/U	7-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: DEL 70–90 GW · ✗ GW (96%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
DEL	31	39	70
GW	29	29	58

1st half: DEL 31, GW 29 (DEL by 2). The model had GW by 12.3 and a total of 74.7 (actual 60).

Team stats

DEL		GW
25-49 51%	Field goals	18-62 29%
9-20 45%	3-pointers	8-28 29%
11-13 85%	Free throws	14-22 64%
34 4 off	Rebounds	35 17 off
16	Assists	15
4	Steals	11
7	Blocks	7
18	Turnovers	12
15	Fouls	12
22	Points in paint	20
9	Fast-break points	10

Players

DEL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Justyn Fernandez G	40	27	7	1	11-21	5-7
Christian Bliss G	40	12	9	8	4-7	2-4
Macon Emory F	37	13	2	2	3-7	1-4
Tyler Houser F	30	7	5	2	2-5	0-2
Bouna Kebe F	13	4	6	1	2-3	0-1
Bench
Alex Kazanecki G	25	5	0	2	2-4	1-2
Houston Emory F	8	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Jayden Taylor F	7	2	2	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Lance Piper, Nnanna Njoku, Mason Ellison, Alex McFadden, Brandon Baffone, Cavan Reilly, Jameel Brown

GW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Trey Autry G	31	17	1	1	5-11	4-9
Rafael Castro F	29	9	7	0	4-8	0-0
Bubu Benjamin G	25	8	4	1	3-8	2-6
Tyrone Marshall Jr. F	19	3	3	3	1-4	0-0
Christian Jones G	17	2	1	2	0-5	0-1
Bench
Jean Aranguren G	25	1	4	6	0-6	0-2
Tre Dinkins G	20	6	2	1	2-7	2-5
Garrett Johnson F	20	10	7	1	3-9	0-3
Luke Hunger F	11	2	2	0	0-3	0-1
Ty Bevins G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Jalen Rougier-Roane, Trey Moss, Mohamed Binzagr, Amir Arrington, Vincent Chaudhri

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	GW -21.5	GW -20.6	DEL +0.9	W DEL covered
Total	152.5	159.7	Over 7.2	L Under
Projected score	—	DEL 69.6 · GW 90.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GW -12.3	DEL -2.0
1H total	74.7	60
1H projected score	DEL 31.2 · GW 43.5	DEL 31 · GW 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEL WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	2-3
GW LWLLL	5-5	50%	3-2	4-5

Venue/role: DEL away, as underdog; GW home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEL OUUOO	3-4	43%	2-5
GW OOOUO	7-3	70%	8-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DELlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
GW	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

DEL 0–1 GWGW leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · DEL 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 26, 2023-24	GW 81 vs DEL 71	DEL -1.5	GW W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Delaware

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

L W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

U U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BUCK	L 70-78	+2.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 148
Nov 11	@BYU	L 68-85	+35.5	W +18.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 18	vsSPU	W 81-70	-4.5	W +6.5	137.5	O 151
Nov 23	vsSIU	L 59-79	+8.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 138
Nov 25	vsUNCG	W 73-60	+1.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 133
Dec 1	vsIONA	L 66-89	+1.5	L −21.5	149.5	O 155
Dec 6	@DSU	L 72-75	-7.5	L −10.5	129.5	O 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BUCK

L 70-78

−5.5

BYU

L 68-85

+18.5

SPU

W 81-70

+6.5

SIU

L 59-79

−11.5

UNCG

W 73-60

+14.5

IONA

L 66-89

−21.5

DSU

L 72-75

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BUCK

L 70-78

−1.5

BYU

L 68-85

−11.5

SPU

W 81-70

+13.5

SIU

L 59-79

−15.5

UNCG

W 73-60

−9.5

IONA

L 66-89

+5.5

DSU

L 72-75

+17.5

over 3under 4avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

G Washington

10 games played

Straight up

8-2

80% wins

Against the spread

5-5

50% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-3

70% overs · avg +8.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-280%

W W W W W L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-550%

L W W W W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-370%

U O O O U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsME	W 67-47	-20.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 114
Nov 8	vsUSF	W 99-95	+1.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 194
Nov 12	vsAMER	W 107-67	-17.5	W +22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsODU	W 96-73	-15.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 169
Nov 19	vsUMBC	W 89-52	-22.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 23	vsMCN	L 86-92	-5.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsMTSU	W 92-79	-9.5	W +3.5	158.5	O 171
Nov 25	vsMUR	L 95-96	-7.5	L −8.5	167.5	O 191
Dec 2	@ARMY	W 84-70	-19.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsW&M	W 99-86	-13.5	L −0.5	174.5	O 185

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 67-47

−0.5

USF

W 99-95

+5.5

AMER

W 107-67

+22.5

ODU

W 96-73

+7.5

UMBC

W 89-52

+14.5

MCN

L 86-92

−11.5

MTSU

W 92-79

+3.5

MUR

L 95-96

−8.5

ARMY

W 84-70

−5.5

W&M

W 99-86

−0.5

covered 5didn’t cover 5avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 67-47

−29.5

USF

W 99-95

+34.5

AMER

W 107-67

+22.5

ODU

W 96-73

+13.5

UMBC

W 89-52

−19.5

MCN

L 86-92

+20.5

MTSU

W 92-79

+12.5

MUR

L 95-96

+23.5

ARMY

W 84-70

−2.5

W&M

W 99-86

+10.5

over 7under 3avg +8.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Delaware @ G Washington

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Delaware

G Washington

Delaware

G Washington