UD Arena · at Dayton
Closing line
DAY -6.5✓ DAY covered by 21.5
DAY -6.5✓ DAY covered by 21.5Closing total162.5Over by 3.5
 FSU | This season | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| 5-5 | Record | 8-3 |
| 5-5 | ATS | 5-6 |
| 4-6 | O/U | 5-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: FSU 78–81 DAY · ✓ DAY (61%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSU | 31 | 38 | 69 |
| DAY | 42 | 55 | 97 |
1st half: FSU 31, DAY 42 (DAY by 11). The model had DAY by 1.9 and a total of 74.5 (actual 73).
Team stats
| FSU | DAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-58 36% | Field goals | 25-51 49% |
| 8-27 30% | 3-pointers | 7-23 30% |
| 19-27 70% | Free throws | 40-47 85% |
| 37 14 off | Rebounds | 35 6 off |
| 7 | Assists | 15 |
| 7 | Steals | 11 |
| 2 | Blocks | 6 |
| 20 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 31 | Fouls | 18 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 20 |
Players
| FSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Swinton F | 29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Chauncey Wiggins F | 27 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Lajae Jones G | 26 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 3-7 | 1-3 |
| Martin Somerville G | 26 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 3-8 | 2-5 |
| Robert McCray V G | 23 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 5-12 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cam Miles G | 21 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3-8 | 0-2 |
| Kobe MaGee G | 19 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 4-9 | 3-7 |
| Thomas Bassong F | 12 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Alex Steen F | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Alier Maluk F | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Shah Muhammad F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jalen Crawford, Max Garcia-Plata, Xavier Osceola
| DAY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Bennett G | 35 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 5-14 | 3-12 |
| Keonte Jones G | 32 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| De'Shayne Montgomery G | 30 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 7-10 | 1-2 |
| Jordan Derkack G | 26 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Amal L'Etang F | 23 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Bryce Heard G | 21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Malcolm Thomas F | 16 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 4-8 | 1-2 |
| Jacob Conner F | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Jaiun Simon F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Makai Grant G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Damon Friery F | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Evan Dickey G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Will Maxwell, Adam Njie, Jaron McKie
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketDAY -6.5
ModelDAY -3.3
Model edgeFSU +3.2
L DAY covered
Total
Market162.5
Model159.3
Model edgeUnder 3.2
L Over
Projected score
FSU 78 · DAY 81.3
FSU 69 · DAY 97
Win probability
DAY 61%
1st half
Spread
DAY -1.9
DAY -11.0
Total
74.5
73 points
Projected score
FSU 36.3 · DAY 38.2
FSU 31 · DAY 42
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDAY -6.5
no move
CloseDAY -6.5
No change since the open
Total
Open162.5
no move
Close162.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
FSU +235 · DAY -290
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DAY -6.5 · unchangedmodel DAY -3.5
model DAY -3.5
Opened 162.5 · unchangedmodel 159.5
model 159.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSU | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
| DAY | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Florida St
10 games played
Straight up
5-5
50% wins
Against the spread
5-5
50% covers · avg −5.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-6
40% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs ALCN | W 108-76 | -27.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | vs ALST | W 101-64 | -24.5 | W +12.5 | 166.5 | U 165 |
| Nov 11 | @ FLA | L 76-78 | +17.5 | W +15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs UTM | W 87-73 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs GASO | W 98-72 | -18.5 | W +7.5 | 175.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs CSUB | W 89-59 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs TA&M | L 59-95 | -1.5 | L −37.5 | 174.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 2 | vs UGA | L 73-107 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 176.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 6 | vs HOU | L 67-82 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 13 | vs MASS | L 95-103 | -12.5 | L −20.5 | 165.5 | O 198 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+4.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
+12.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
+15.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
+7.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
+3.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−37.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
−35.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
−2.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
−20.5
covered 5didn’t cover 5avg −5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+27.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
−1.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
−26.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
−5.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
−11.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−20.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
+3.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
+0.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
+32.5
over 4under 6avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Dayton
11 games played
Straight up
8-3
73% wins
Against the spread
5-6
45% covers · avg −2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-6
45% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CAN | W 88-48 | -25.5 | W +14.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 8 | vs UMBC | W 77-71 | -25.5 | L −19.5 | 154.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 11 | @ CIN | L 62-74 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 15 | vs BCU | W 91-82 | -21.5 | L −12.5 | 148.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | @ MARQ | W 77-71 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 22 | vs NCCU | W 74-55 | -29.5 | L −10.5 | 146.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 27 | vs GTWN | W 84-79 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 28 | vs BYU | L 79-83 | +9.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 2 | vs ETSU | W 88-71 | -11.5 | W +5.5 | 140.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs UVA | L 73-86 | +5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 13 | vs UNF | W 84-61 | -30.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
+14.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−19.5
11
@CIN
CINL 62-74
−6.5
15
vsBCU
BCUW 91-82
−12.5
19
@MARQ
MARQW 77-71
+12.5
22
vsNCCU
NCCUW 74-55
−10.5
27
vsGTWN
GTWNW 84-79
+3.5
28
vsBYU
BYUL 79-83
+5.5
2
vsETSU
ETSUW 88-71
+5.5
6
vsUVA
UVAL 73-86
−7.5
13
vsUNF
UNFW 84-61
−7.5
covered 5didn’t cover 6avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
−6.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−6.5
11
@CIN
CINL 62-74
−11.5
15
vsBCU
BCUW 91-82
+24.5
19
@MARQ
MARQW 77-71
−3.5
22
vsNCCU
NCCUW 74-55
−17.5
27
vsGTWN
GTWNW 84-79
+17.5
28
vsBYU
BYUL 79-83
+11.5
2
vsETSU
ETSUW 88-71
+18.5
6
vsUVA
UVAL 73-86
+11.5
13
vsUNF
UNFW 84-61
−14.5
over 5under 6avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Florida St
5-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs UMass95–103
- Lvs Houston67–82
- Lvs Georgia73–107
- Lvs Texas A&M59–95
- Wvs Bakersfield89–59
3 days since their last game.
Dayton
8-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs North Florida84–61
- Lvs Virginia73–86
- Wvs ETSU88–71
- Lvs BYU79–83
- Wvs Georgetown84–79
3 days since their last game.