The Palestra · at Penn
Closing line
PENN -2.5✓ PENN covered by 9.5
PENN -2.5✓ PENN covered by 9.5Closing total152.5Under by 10.5
 MRMK | This season | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 2-2 |
| 3-3 | ATS | 2-2 |
| 3-3 | O/U | 2-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MRMK 72–77 PENN · ✓ PENN (65%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRMK | 30 | 35 | 65 |
| PENN | 35 | 42 | 77 |
1st half: MRMK 30, PENN 35 (PENN by 5). The model had PENN by 2.5 and a total of 69.7 (actual 65).
Team stats
| MRMK | PENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-67 37% | Field goals | 31-58 53% |
| 4-28 14% | 3-pointers | 3-12 25% |
| 11-15 73% | Free throws | 12-23 52% |
| 32 10 off | Rebounds | 46 13 off |
| 12 | Assists | 18 |
| 7 | Steals | 3 |
| 4 | Blocks | 5 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 50 |
| 16 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| MRMK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tye Dorset G | 35 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2-12 | 0-7 |
| Ernest Shelton G | 35 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 4-13 | 2-9 |
| Kevair Kennedy G | 35 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 8-13 | 0-0 |
| Andrés Marrero G | 27 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 6-14 | 2-7 |
| Todd Brogna F | 22 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| KC Ugwuakazi F | 17 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Jaylen Stinson G | 13 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Aliou Cisse F | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Dylan Veillette F | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Quinn Kwasniak, David Munro, Jacob Moore, Brendan Johnson, Brandon Legris, Malik Edmead
| PENN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Power F | 37 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 6-12 | 0-1 |
| Ethan Roberts G | 36 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 4-11 | 1-3 |
| Augustus Gerhart F | 17 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Michael Zanoni G | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| AJ Levine G | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dalton Scantlebury F | 23 | 22 | 13 | 2 | 10-10 | 0-0 |
| Lucas Lueth F | 22 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4-9 | 1-2 |
| Cam Thrower G | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Dylan Williams G | 17 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Niklas Polonowski G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Bradyn Foster, Jay Jones, Ryan Altman, Payton Kamin, William Kruse, Michelangelo Oberti, Alex Massung, Johnnie Walter, Chris Ubochi
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketPENN -2.5
ModelPENN -4.3
Model edgePENN +1.8
W PENN covered
Total
Market152.5
Model148.8
Model edgeUnder 3.7
W Under
Projected score
MRMK 72.2 · PENN 76.6
MRMK 65 · PENN 77
Win probability
PENN 65%
1st half
Spread
PENN -2.5
PENN -5.0
Total
69.7
65 points
Projected score
MRMK 33.6 · PENN 36.1
MRMK 30 · PENN 35
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPENN -4.5
2 → MRMK
ClosePENN -2.5
2 pts toward MRMK
Total
Open153.5
▼ 1
Close152.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
MRMK +130 · PENN -150
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PENN -4.5 · closed PENN -2.5 · moved 2 toward MRMKmodel PENN -4.5
model PENN -4.5
Opened 153.5 · closed 152.5 · moved 1 downmodel 149
model 149
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRMKlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% | 3-3 50% |
| PENNlast 4 | 2-2 50% | 2-2 50% | 2-2 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Merrimack
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
3-3
50% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
SDST
SDSTL 66-75
−2.5
6
@
AUB
AUBL 57-95
−14.5
11
@
TAR
TARL 62-76
−9.5
15
@
BU
BUW 91-79
+14.5
19
vs
ME
MEW 72-65
+0.5
21
@
FLA
FLAL 45-80
+1.5
covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSDST
SDSTL 66-75
−2.5
6
@AUB
AUBL 57-95
+3.5
11
@TAR
TARL 62-76
−4.5
15
@BU
BUW 91-79
+34.5
19
vsME
MEW 72-65
+6.5
21
@FLA
FLAL 45-80
−33.5
over 3under 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Penn
4 games played
Straight up
2-2
50% wins
Against the spread
2-2
50% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-2
50% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
9
@
AMER
AMERL 78-84
−7.5
11
@
PROV
PROVL 81-106
−5.5
17
vs
JOES
JOESW 83-74
+14.5
21
@
DREX
DREXW 84-68
+20.5
covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
9
@AMER
AMERL 78-84
+7.5
11
@PROV
PROVL 81-106
+14.5
17
vsJOES
JOESW 83-74
−6.5
21
@DREX
DREXW 84-68
−0.5
over 2under 2avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Merrimack
2-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Metro Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Florida45–80
- Wvs Maine72–65
- W@ Boston U91–79
- L@ Tarleton St62–76
- L@ Auburn57–95
A week or more of rest.
Penn
2-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Ivy League
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Drexel84–68
- Wvs Saint Joseph's83–74
- L@ Providence81–106
- L@ American78–84
A week or more of rest.