Mott Athletics Center · at Cal Poly · Conference game
Closing line
CP -5.5✓ UCR covered by 9.5
CP -5.5✓ UCR covered by 9.5Closing total162.5Over by 9.5
 UCR | This season | CP |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 3-5 |
| 5-3 | ATS | 4-4 |
| 5-3 | O/U | 5-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UCR 79–82 CP · ✗ CP (61%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCR | 46 | 42 | 88 |
| CP | 36 | 48 | 84 |
1st half: UCR 46, CP 36 (UCR by 10). The model had CP by 1.8 and a total of 75.2 (actual 82).
Team stats
| UCR | CP | |
|---|---|---|
| 34-63 54% | Field goals | 27-57 47% |
| 4-18 22% | 3-pointers | 9-29 31% |
| 16-24 67% | Free throws | 21-26 81% |
| 32 9 off | Rebounds | 34 10 off |
| 8 | Assists | 12 |
| 3 | Steals | 2 |
| 2 | Blocks | 0 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 25 | Fouls | 18 |
| 52 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 19 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| UCR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marqui Worthy Jr. G | 38 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 9-16 | 3-6 |
| Andrew Henderson G | 38 | 28 | 9 | 0 | 10-19 | 1-7 |
| Osiris Grady F | 33 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| De'Undrae Perteete Jr. G | 27 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-3 |
| BJ Kolly F | 23 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jailen Daniel-Dalton F | 22 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Dylan Godfrey F | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Tyler Jones G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Daniel Tobiloba, Denzel Hines, Parker Strauss, EJ Spillman, Ben Waller, Amaury McKinney, Gavin Haase
| CP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Bandelj G | 36 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 3-7 | 2-4 |
| Hamad Mousa G | 36 | 31 | 9 | 4 | 8-14 | 4-9 |
| Cayden Ward G | 34 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 4-13 | 1-6 |
| Luka Tarlac G | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Austin Goode F | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Troy Plumtree F | 25 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-2 |
| Ali Assran F | 17 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 4-5 | 1-2 |
| Guzman Vasilic G | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-4 |
| Kieran Elliott G | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jake Davis G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Eric Brown, Jason Scott, Jess Esso Essis, Braden Freeman, Jackson Mosley, Aaron Price Jr.
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketCP -5.5
ModelCP -3.3
Model edgeUCR +2.2
W UCR covered
Total
Market162.5
Model160.7
Model edgeUnder 1.8
L Over
Projected score
UCR 78.7 · CP 82
UCR 88 · CP 84
Win probability
CP 61%
1st half
Spread
CP -1.8
UCR -10.0
Total
75.2
82 points
Projected score
UCR 36.7 · CP 38.5
UCR 46 · CP 36
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCP -4.5
1 → CP
CloseCP -5.5
1 pt toward CP
Total
Open163.5
▼ 1
Close162.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
UCR +205 · CP -250
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CP -4.5 · closed CP -5.5 · moved 1 toward CPmodel CP -3.5
model CP -3.5
Opened 163.5 · closed 162.5 · moved 1 downmodel 160.5
model 160.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCRlast 8 | 3-5 38% | 5-3 63% | 5-3 63% |
| CPlast 8 | 3-5 38% | 4-4 50% | 5-3 63% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
UCR 7–2 CPUCR leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · CP has won the last 2 meetings · UCR 4-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2024-25 | CP 96 vs UCR 83 | UCR -4.5 | CP W |
| Feb 22, 2024-25 | UCR 100 @ CP 112 | CP +1.5 | CP W |
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | CP 62 @ UCR 80 | UCR -7.5 | UCR W |
| Feb 24, 2023-24 | UCR 84 @ CP 78 | CP +7.5 | CP W |
| Jan 11, 2023-24 | CP 56 @ UCR 71 | UCR -8.5 | UCR W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UC Riverside
8 games played
Straight up
3-5
38% wins
Against the spread
5-3
63% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-3
63% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | @ UND | W 74-70 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 11 | @ UNM | L 68-82 | +19.5 | W +5.5 | 141.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 15 | vsUND | L 74-76 | -3.5 | L −5.5 | 148.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 18 | @ CBU | L 57-80 | +12.5 | L −10.5 | 142.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 21 | @ USD | W 85-71 | +7.5 | W +21.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs GRAM | W 83-74 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 144.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 29 | @ UTU | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 4 | @ UCI | L 60-73 | +13.5 | W +0.5 | 142.5 | U 133 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
6
@UND
UNDW 74-70
+5.5
11
@UNM
UNML 68-82
+5.5
15
vsUND
UNDL 74-76
−5.5
18
@CBU
CBUL 57-80
−10.5
21
@USD
USDW 85-71
+21.5
24
vsGRAM
GRAMW 83-74
+5.5
29
@UTU
UTUL 69-77
−2.5
4
@UCI
UCIL 60-73
+0.5
covered 5didn’t cover 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
6
@UND
UNDW 74-70
−2.5
11
@UNM
UNML 68-82
+8.5
15
vsUND
UNDL 74-76
+1.5
18
@CBU
CBUL 57-80
−5.5
21
@USD
USDW 85-71
+3.5
24
vsGRAM
GRAMW 83-74
+12.5
29
@UTU
UTUL 69-77
+0.5
4
@UCI
UCIL 60-73
−9.5
over 5under 3avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Cal Poly
8 games played
Straight up
3-5
38% wins
Against the spread
4-4
50% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-3
63% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ USC | L 64-94 | +24.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 8 | @ SEA | W 73-71 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 164.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 12 | @ CSU | L 79-93 | +18.5 | W +4.5 | 165.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 14 | @ MONT | L 82-90 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 20 | @ UTAH | W 92-85 | +14.5 | W +21.5 | 167.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 24 | @ NAU | L 87-93 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 25 | vs SEMO | L 68-84 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 170.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 4 | @ CSUF | W 94-91 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 177.5 | O 185 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@SEA
SEAW 73-71
+12.5
12
@CSU
CSUL 79-93
+4.5
14
@MONT
MONTL 82-90
−0.5
20
@UTAH
UTAHW 92-85
+21.5
24
@NAU
NAUL 87-93
−7.5
25
vsSEMO
SEMOL 68-84
−14.5
4
@CSUF
CSUFW 94-91
+4.5
covered 4didn’t cover 4avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@SEA
SEAW 73-71
−20.5
12
@CSU
CSUL 79-93
+6.5
14
@MONT
MONTL 82-90
+3.5
20
@UTAH
UTAHW 92-85
+9.5
24
@NAU
NAUL 87-93
+15.5
25
vsSEMO
SEMOL 68-84
−18.5
4
@CSUF
CSUFW 94-91
+7.5
over 5under 3avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UC Riverside
3-5 overall · 0-1 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ UC Irvine60–73
- L@ Utah Tech69–77
- Wvs Grambling83–74
- W@ San Diego85–71
- L@ CA Baptist57–80
2 days since their last game.
Cal Poly
3-5 overall · 1-0 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Fullerton94–91
- Lvs SE Missouri68–84
- L@ N Arizona87–93
- W@ Utah92–85
- L@ Montana82–90
2 days since their last game.