Sojka Pavilion · at Bucknell
Closing line
BUCK -1.5✓ UMBC covered by 8.5
BUCK -1.5✓ UMBC covered by 8.5Closing total143.5Under by 4.5
 UMBC | This season | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 2-8 |
| 3-3 | ATS | 5-5 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 3-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UMBC 73–75 BUCK · ✗ BUCK (57%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC | 25 | 48 | 73 |
| BUCK | 26 | 40 | 66 |
1st half: UMBC 25, BUCK 26 (BUCK by 1). The model had BUCK by 1.1 and a total of 69.3 (actual 51).
Team stats
| UMBC | BUCK | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-52 52% | Field goals | 24-61 39% |
| 7-18 39% | 3-pointers | 6-24 25% |
| 12-15 80% | Free throws | 12-17 71% |
| 32 6 off | Rebounds | 34 14 off |
| 18 | Assists | 14 |
| 3 | Steals | 8 |
| 8 | Blocks | 3 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 3 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| UMBC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jah'Likai King G | 32 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 6-11 | 2-5 |
| DJ Armstrong Jr. G | 32 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 4-8 | 2-5 |
| Josh Odunowo F | 31 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 6-11 | 0-0 |
| Riley Jacobs F | 28 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 4-7 | 0-1 |
| Ace Valentine G | 24 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 3-4 | 3-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Caden Diggs F | 25 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Daylon Dickerson F | 12 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Cougar Downing G | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Jose Roberto Tanchyn F | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Tim Eze F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Devin Ceaser, Saahil Thakkar, Paul Greene, Regimantas Ciunys, Jake Stout
| BUCK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon Dorries C | 34 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 5-8 | 0-1 |
| Quin Berger G | 34 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3-10 | 3-8 |
| Jayden Williams G | 34 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2-8 | 0-3 |
| Achile Spadone G | 32 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 5-12 | 3-7 |
| Grgur Brcic F | 30 | 14 | 16 | 1 | 6-11 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Aleksander Pachucki G | 22 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-7 | 0-4 |
| Jacob Meachem G | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Patrick O'Brien F | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Pat Curtin, Brady Muller, Josh Fulton, Ruot Bijiek, Kellen Welch, Matt Lange, Brandon McCreesh
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketBUCK -1.5
ModelBUCK -2.0
Model edgeBUCK +0.5
L UMBC covered
Total
Market143.5
Model148.1
Model edgeOver 4.6
L Under
Projected score
UMBC 73 · BUCK 75
UMBC 73 · BUCK 66
Win probability
BUCK 57%
1st half
Spread
BUCK -1.1
BUCK -1.0
Total
69.3
51 points
Projected score
UMBC 34.1 · BUCK 35.2
UMBC 25 · BUCK 26
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBUCK -1.5
no move
CloseBUCK -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open148.5
▼ 5
Close143.5
Down 5 since the open
Moneyline
UMBC +110 · BUCK -130
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BUCK -1.5 · unchangedmodel BUCK -2
model BUCK -2
Opened 148.5 · closed 143.5 · moved 5 downmodel 148
model 148
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBClast 6 | 3-3 50% | 3-3 50% | 2-4 33% |
| BUCK | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UMBC
6 games played
Straight up
3-3
50% wins
Against the spread
3-3
50% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@
DAY
DAYL 71-77
+19.5
11
@
MORG
MORGW 81-79
−2.5
16
vs
WAG
WAGW 71-70
−5.5
19
@
GW
GWL 52-89
−14.5
29
vs
DSU
DSUW 71-57
+0.5
3
@
GTWN
GTWNL 81-90
+10.5
covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@DAY
DAYL 71-77
−6.5
11
@MORG
MORGW 81-79
−2.5
16
vsWAG
WAGW 71-70
+0.5
19
@GW
GWL 52-89
−19.5
29
vsDSU
DSUW 71-57
−10.5
3
@GTWN
GTWNL 81-90
+21.5
over 2under 4avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Bucknell
10 games played
Straight up
2-8
20% wins
Against the spread
5-5
50% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-7
30% overs · avg 0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs DEL | W 78-70 | -2.5 | W +5.5 | 149.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 7 | @ MSM | W 73-62 | +1.5 | W +12.5 | 143.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 11 | @ PRIN | L 63-73 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 146.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 14 | vs HOF | L 77-83 | +4.5 | L −1.5 | 139.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 17 | @ PITT | L 50-84 | +16.5 | L −17.5 | 141.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 20 | @ SJU | L 49-97 | +28.5 | L −19.5 | 158.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 24 | vs BGSU | L 66-71 | +10.5 | W +5.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 26 | vs BUF | L 71-73 | +4.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 30 | vs COR | L 72-101 | +5.5 | L −23.5 | 159.5 | O 173 |
| Dec 3 | @ AKR | L 77-97 | +23.5 | W +3.5 | 157.5 | O 174 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsDEL
DELW 78-70
+5.5
7
@MSM
MSMW 73-62
+12.5
11
@PRIN
PRINL 63-73
−5.5
14
vsHOF
HOFL 77-83
−1.5
17
@PITT
PITTL 50-84
−17.5
20
@SJU
SJUL 49-97
−19.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUL 66-71
+5.5
26
vsBUF
BUFL 71-73
+2.5
30
vsCOR
CORL 72-101
−23.5
3
@AKR
AKRL 77-97
+3.5
covered 5didn’t cover 5avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsDEL
DELW 78-70
−1.5
7
@MSM
MSMW 73-62
−8.5
11
@PRIN
PRINL 63-73
−10.5
14
vsHOF
HOFL 77-83
+20.5
17
@PITT
PITTL 50-84
−7.5
20
@SJU
SJUL 49-97
−12.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUL 66-71
−7.5
26
vsBUF
BUFL 71-73
−2.5
30
vsCOR
CORL 72-101
+13.5
3
@AKR
AKRL 77-97
+16.5
over 3under 7avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UMBC
3-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · America East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Georgetown81–90
- Wvs Delaware St71–57
- L@ G Washington52–89
- Wvs Wagner71–70
- W@ Morgan St81–79
3 days since their last game.
Bucknell
2-8 overall · 0-0 in conference · Patriot League
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Akron77–97
- Lvs Cornell72–101
- Lvs Buffalo71–73
- Lvs Bowling Green66–71
- L@ St John's49–97
3 days since their last game.