Humphrey Coliseum · at Mississippi St
Closing line
MSST -23.5✓ NOLA covered by 20.5
MSST -23.5✓ NOLA covered by 20.5Closing total160.5Under by 1.5
 NOLA | This season | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-3 | ATS | 0-5 |
| 3-2 | O/U | 3-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NOLA 72–91 MSST · ✓ MSST (96%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOLA | 34 | 34 | 10 | 78 |
| MSST | 28 | 40 | 13 | 81 |
1st half: NOLA 34, MSST 28 (NOLA by 6). The model had MSST by 11.7 and a total of 76.5 (actual 62).
Team stats
| NOLA | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-69 38% | Field goals | 28-65 43% |
| 10-27 37% | 3-pointers | 10-31 32% |
| 16-17 94% | Free throws | 15-29 52% |
| 44 15 off | Rebounds | 42 15 off |
| 17 | Assists | 15 |
| 8 | Steals | 10 |
| 5 | Blocks | 5 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 22 | Fouls | 19 |
| 20 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| NOLA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakevion Buckley G | 38 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 4-15 | 1-3 |
| Coleton Benson G | 36 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 7-14 | 7-12 |
| MJ Thomas F | 31 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Panagiotis Pagonis F | 29 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3-11 | 1-6 |
| Enzo Boudouma F | 17 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Churchill Abass F | 33 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| TJ Cope G | 20 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| Irish Coquia G | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-4 |
| Kedrick Osby F | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Mathok Majok, William Patterson Jr., Grant Kemp, Eze Nwakamma, Vieux Sanneh, Jamal Chretien II
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hubbard G | 41 | 28 | 6 | 5 | 9-21 | 5-12 |
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 38 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 5-11 | 2-4 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. G | 34 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-4 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 26 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Achor Achor F | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 31 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Amier Ali F | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 6-9 | 3-6 |
| Brandon Walker F | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Dellquan Warren G | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| King Grace G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Sergej Macura, Jayden Epps, Tee Bartlett, Cameren Paul, Gai Chol
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMSST -23.5
ModelMSST -19.6
Model edgeNOLA +3.9
W NOLA covered
Total
Market160.5
Model163.2
Model edgeOver 2.7
L Under
Projected score
NOLA 71.8 · MSST 91.4
NOLA 78 · MSST 81
Win probability
MSST 96%
1st half
Spread
MSST -11.7
NOLA -6.0
Total
76.5
62 points
Projected score
NOLA 32.4 · MSST 44.1
NOLA 34 · MSST 28
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSST -20.5
3 → MSST
CloseMSST -23.5
3 pts toward MSST
Total
Open160.5
no move
Close160.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSST -20.5 · closed MSST -23.5 · moved 3 toward MSSTmodel MSST -19.5
model MSST -19.5
Opened 160.5 · unchangedmodel 163
model 163
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOLAlast 5 | 2-3 40% | 2-3 40% | 3-2 60% |
| MSSTlast 5 | 2-3 40% | 0-5 0% | 3-2 60% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
LSU N Orleans
5 games played
Straight up
2-3
40% wins
Against the spread
2-3
40% covers · avg +7.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-2
60% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
TCU
TCUW 78-74
+25.5
10
@
LSU
LSUL 58-93
−15.5
14
@
TULN
TULNW 85-63
+33.5
18
@
PEPP
PEPPL 79-90
−5.5
21
@
FRES
FRESL 76-85
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +7.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TCU
TCUW 78-74
+2.5
10
@LSU
LSUL 58-93
−11.5
14
@TULN
TULNW 85-63
−5.5
18
@PEPP
PEPPL 79-90
+11.5
21
@FRES
FRESL 76-85
+6.5
over 3under 2avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mississippi St
5 games played
Straight up
2-3
40% wins
Against the spread
0-5
0% covers · avg −12.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-2
60% overs · avg +6.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vs
UNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
10
vs
ISU
ISUL 80-96
−10.5
15
vs
SELA
SELAW 75-68
−20.5
20
vs
KSU
KSUL 77-98
−23.5
21
vs
UNM
UNML 78-80
−8.5
covered 0didn’t cover 5avg −12.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
+25.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−7.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
+10.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
+6.5
over 3under 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
LSU N Orleans
2-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southland Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Fresno St76–85
- L@ Pepperdine79–90
- W@ Tulane85–63
- L@ LSU58–93
- W@ TCU78–74
3 days since their last game.
Mississippi St
2-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs New Mexico78–80
- Lvs Kansas St77–98
- Wvs SE Louisiana75–68
- Lvs Iowa State80–96
- Wvs North Alabama86–62
3 days since their last game.