Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles at Tennessee State Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 17, 4:30 PM ETGentry Center · at Tennessee St · Conference game

#304USISouthern Indiana Screaming Eagles67final

Final

#245TNSTTennessee St73▲ winner

Closing lineTNST -8.5✓ USI covered by 2.5

Closing total150.5Under by 10.5

Season records: Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles and Tennessee St
USI	This season	TNST
2-13	Record	8-6
6-9	ATS	9-5
5-10	O/U	8-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: USI 72–81 TNST · ✓ TNST (78%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
USI	33	34	67
TNST	38	35	73

1st half: USI 33, TNST 38 (TNST by 5). The model had TNST by 5.2 and a total of 71.2 (actual 71).

Team stats

USI		TNST
25-65 38%	Field goals	29-63 46%
11-31 35%	3-pointers	5-17 29%
6-9 67%	Free throws	10-14 71%
44 14 off	Rebounds	37 8 off
7	Assists	12
2	Steals	10
2	Blocks	5
13	Turnovers	5
11	Fouls	12
20	Points in paint	42
2	Fast-break points	20

Players

USI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ismail Habib G	38	12	3	4	5-15	2-8
Cardell Bailey G	32	19	10	1	7-21	5-13
Ola Ajiboye F	22	4	3	1	1-1	0-0
Steven Clay G	11	2	3	0	1-6	0-2
Sheridan Sharp G	8	0	2	1	0-1	0-0
Bench
Amaree Brown G	27	20	5	0	8-14	4-7
Tolu Samuels F	26	8	11	0	2-4	0-0
Josiah Dunham G	18	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Devin Curtis F	18	2	2	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Trey Thomas, Alem Fejzic, Kaden Brown, Braxton Jones, Cayden Gehlhausen, Ben Ezeagu

TNST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Aaron Nkrumah G	36	24	11	3	8-14	3-3
Travis Harper II G	34	11	3	1	4-11	1-6
Antoine Lorick III F	32	17	6	5	8-13	1-2
Dante Harris G	31	9	2	2	4-9	0-0
Jalen Pitre F	27	6	6	0	3-4	0-1
Bench
Carlous Williams F	13	2	2	0	0-3	0-2
Khalil London G	12	2	1	1	1-5	0-2
Kavien Jones F	9	2	3	0	1-2	0-1
Jabrion Spikes G	6	0	2	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Jean Lafleur, Jayden Jones, Damon Howard Jr., Ogien Ayo, Alex Garcia, Maddux Bodenhamer, JC Brooks

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TNST -8.5	TNST -8.9	TNST +0.4	L USI covered
Total	150.5	152.0	Over 1.5	L Under
Projected score	—	USI 71.6 · TNST 80.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TNST -5.2	TNST -5.0
1H total	71.2	71
1H projected score	USI 33 · TNST 38.2	USI 33 · TNST 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USI WWLLW	6-9	40%	4-4	6-9
TNST WWWLL	9-5	64%	1-2	4-3

Venue/role: USI away, as underdog; TNST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
USI UOOUU	5-10	33%	2-13
TNST OOOUO	8-6	57%	8-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USI	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
TNST	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

USI 3–4 TNSTTNST leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · USI 3-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 1, 2024-25	USI 69 @ TNST 74	TNST -7.5	USI W
Dec 19, 2024-25	TNST 75 @ USI 77	USI -4.5	TNST W
Mar 6, 2023-24	USI 64 vs TNST 78	TNST -4.5	TNST W
Feb 3, 2023-24	USI 74 @ TNST 79	TNST -4.5	TNST W
Jan 4, 2023-24	TNST 67 @ USI 69	USI +3.5	USI W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

15 games played

Straight up

2-13

13% wins

Against the spread

6-9

40% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-10

33% overs · avg −5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-1313%

L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-940%

L L L W W W L L L L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-1033%

U U U O O U O U U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@BTLR	L 58-88	+22.5	L −7.5	156.5	U 146
Nov 7	vsVMI	L 74-78	+2.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 12	@SDAK	L 74-89	+7.5	L −7.5	164.5	U 163
Nov 20	vsUIW	L 81-87	+9.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 168
Nov 22	vsUIC	L 73-84	+11.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 26	@VAL	W 64-56	+9.5	W +17.5	150.5	U 120
Dec 3	@WMU	L 74-88	+5.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 162
Dec 7	@INST	L 55-77	+11.5	L −10.5	158.5	U 132
Dec 18	vsLR	L 62-77	+2.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 139
Dec 20	vsMORE	L 60-64	+1.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 124
Jan 1	@SIUE	L 55-59	+10.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 114
Jan 3	@LIN	L 80-83	+9.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 8	vsSEMO	L 76-84	+7.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 10	vsUTM	L 56-73	+5.5	L −11.5	137.5	U 129
Jan 15	@TNTC	W 71-54	+5.5	W +22.5	142.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BTLR

L 58-88

−7.5

VMI

L 74-78

−1.5

SDAK

L 74-89

−7.5

UIW

L 81-87

+3.5

UIC

L 73-84

+0.5

VAL

W 64-56

+17.5

WMU

L 74-88

−8.5

INST

L 55-77

−10.5

L 62-77

−12.5

L 60-64

−2.5

SIUE

L 55-59

+6.5

LIN

L 80-83

+6.5

SEMO

L 76-84

−0.5

UTM

L 56-73

−11.5

TNTC

W 71-54

+22.5

covered 6didn’t cover 9avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BTLR

L 58-88

−10.5

VMI

L 74-78

−1.5

SDAK

L 74-89

−1.5

UIW

L 81-87

+22.5

UIC

L 73-84

+3.5

VAL

W 64-56

−30.5

WMU

L 74-88

+11.5

INST

L 55-77

−26.5

L 62-77

−1.5

L 60-64

−21.5

SIUE

L 55-59

−22.5

LIN

L 80-83

+15.5

SEMO

L 76-84

+13.5

UTM

L 56-73

−8.5

TNTC

W 71-54

−17.5

over 5under 10avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Tennessee St

14 games played

Straight up

8-6

57% wins

Against the spread

9-5

64% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-6

57% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-657%

L L L W W L W W L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-564%

W L W W W L W W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-657%

O O U U U U U O O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@BEL	L 79-87	+13.5	W +5.5	158.5	O 166
Nov 16	@WKU	L 82-95	+12.5	L −0.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 20	@TENN	L 60-89	+31.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 149
Nov 25	@UNCA	W 75-73	+5.5	W +7.5	164.5	U 148
Nov 30	@UTC	W 70-64	+8.5	W +14.5	155.5	U 134
Dec 3	@AAMU	L 53-80	-4.5	L −31.5	147.5	U 133
Dec 13	@UNLV	W 63-60	+12.5	W +15.5	161.5	U 123
Dec 18	vsUTM	W 78-71	-2.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 149
Dec 20	vsSEMO	L 82-91	+1.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 173
Dec 30	@TNTC	W 88-76	-1.5	W +10.5	155.5	O 164
Jan 3	@LR	W 84-79	-1.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 163
Jan 8	@WIU	W 90-68	-6.5	W +15.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 10	@EIU	L 70-74	-3.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 15	vsMORE	W 105-100	-7.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BEL

L 79-87

+5.5

WKU

L 82-95

−0.5

TENN

L 60-89

+2.5

UNCA

W 75-73

+7.5

UTC

W 70-64

+14.5

AAMU

L 53-80

−31.5

UNLV

W 63-60

+15.5

UTM

W 78-71

+4.5

SEMO

L 82-91

−7.5

TNTC

W 88-76

+10.5

W 84-79

+3.5

WIU

W 90-68

+15.5

EIU

L 70-74

−7.5

W 105-100

−2.5

covered 9didn’t cover 5avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BEL

L 79-87

+7.5

WKU

L 82-95

+9.5

TENN

L 60-89

−8.5

UNCA

W 75-73

−16.5

UTC

W 70-64

−21.5

AAMU

L 53-80

−14.5

UNLV

W 63-60

−38.5

UTM

W 78-71

+7.5

SEMO

L 82-91

+21.5

TNTC

W 88-76

+8.5

W 84-79

+18.5

WIU

W 90-68

+12.5

EIU

L 70-74

−0.5

W 105-100

+56.5

over 8under 6avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles @ Tennessee St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Tennessee St

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Tennessee St