Detroit Pistons at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Feb 9, 10:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pistons and Clippers
DET	This season	LAC
5-1	Record	1-5
5-1	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 112–107 · win probability DET 63%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 219.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

DET 6, LAC 2 · 2026-27 so far

DETBig

LAC offense vs DET defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

DETBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: DET 53.1 and allows 48.8; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

DETSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DET 15.6%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: DET 17.1%, LAC 17.0%

Context

Schedule so far

DET has played the 17th-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DETSmall

Three-pointers

DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 43.3% and 42.3% of their shots

DETSmall

Recent form

Last 5: DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

LACSmall

DET offense vs LAC defense

Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

DETSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DET 27.2%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: DET 72.8%, LAC 70.9%

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, DET 3-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: DET plays 100.9 a game (29th fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: DET 28.9, LAC 28.0. Allowed: DET 28.1, LAC 24.7

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DET 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: DET 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WWLWW	5-1	83%	3-1	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: DET away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OUUUU	2-4	33%	5-1
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DETlast 6	5-1 83%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pistons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 10	@ PHX	L96–114LU
Feb 13	@ POR	W110–102WU
Feb 15	@ UTAH	L129–131LO

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 10	@ LAL	L87–103LU
Feb 12	@ MEM	W123–120LO
Feb 14	@ NO	L99–105LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

DET 1–9 LACLAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAC has won the last 3 meetings · DET 5-4-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 10, 2025-26	LAC 98 @ DET 92	DET -1.5	LAC W
Dec 28, 2025-26	DET 99 @ LAC 112	LAC +3.5	LAC W
Mar 5, 2024-25	DET 115 @ LAC 123	LAC +3.5	LAC W
Feb 24, 2024-25	LAC 97 @ DET 106	DET -2.5	DET W
Feb 10, 2023-24	DET 106 @ LAC 112	LAC -16.5	DET W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pistons

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsBOS	W 121-113	+1.5	W +9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	@MIA	W 128-111	-2.5	W +14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 25	@PHI	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 27	@NY	L 97-111	+4.5	L −9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	vsCHA	W 97-89	-7.5	W +0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@BKN	W 110-94	-8.5	W +7.5	222.5	U 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+9.5

MIA

W 128-111

+14.5

PHI

W 106-93

+11.5

L 97-111

−9.5

CHA

W 97-89

+0.5

BKN

W 110-94

+7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+13.5

MIA

W 128-111

+3.5

PHI

W 106-93

−29.5

L 97-111

−12.5

CHA

W 97-89

−26.5

BKN

W 110-94

−18.5

over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Pistons 4, Clippers 0, even 1

PistonsBetterClippers

G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47

DETSmall

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79

DETBig

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77

DETBig

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97

Even

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30

DETSmall

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

PistonsBetterClippers

DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6

LACSmall

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1

DETBig

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players

DETBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players

DETBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench+22.1 · 5 players

DETBig

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDET betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pistons

Guards

C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min

Forwards

D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min

Centers

I. Jones5 min

Out

I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DET109.8 #21

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

DET1.09 #18

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

DET100.9 #29

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

DET53.1 #17

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

DET36.3 #9

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

DET43.3 #13

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

DET28.9 #14

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

DET15.6 #17

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

DET27.2 #17

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

DET26.7 #15

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

DET101.8 #1

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

DET1.01 #1

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

DET48.8 #2

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

DET32.5 #10

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

DET17.1 #6

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

DET72.8 #15

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

DET9.0 #12

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

DET6.7 #4

LAC4.2 #22

DET		LAC
Scoring
109.8 #21	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.09 #18	Points per possession	1.04 #27
100.9 #29	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
53.1 #17	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
36.3 #9	3-point %	38.6 #5
43.3 #13	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
28.9 #14	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
15.6 #17	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
27.2 #17	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
26.7 #15	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
101.8 #1	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.01 #1	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
48.8 #2	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
32.5 #10	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
17.1 #6	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
72.8 #15	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
9.0 #12	Steals per game	11.3 #3
6.7 #4	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Nets110–94
Wvs Hornets97–89
L@ Knicks97–111
W@ 76ers106–93
W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Pistons @ Clippers

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pistons

Clippers

Pistons has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pistons

Clippers