Stony Brook Seawolves vs Bethune-Cookman Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 11:00 AM ETOcean Center · Neutral site

#191STBKStony Brook61▲ winner

Final

#202BCUBethune54final

Closing lineBCU -4.5✓ STBK covered by 11.5

Closing total145.5Under by 30.5

Season records: Stony Brook and Bethune
STBK	This season	BCU
2-2	Record	1-4
3-1	ATS	3-2
2-2	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: STBK 74–78 BCU · ✗ BCU (64%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
STBK	19	42	61
BCU	30	24	54

1st half: STBK 19, BCU 30 (BCU by 11). The model had BCU by 2.3 and a total of 71.4 (actual 49).

Team stats

STBK		BCU
21-57 37%	Field goals	18-60 30%
9-30 30%	3-pointers	2-12 17%
10-16 63%	Free throws	16-26 62%
41 15 off	Rebounds	45 21 off
10	Assists	7
6	Steals	9
3	Blocks	2
14	Turnovers	11
16	Fouls	17
20	Points in paint	24
10	Fast-break points	13

Players

STBK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Collin O'Connor G	37	13	0	1	5-9	1-3
Erik Pratt G	36	14	8	3	6-19	2-11
Rob Brown III G	23	4	2	1	1-7	1-5
Quin Gorman F	21	9	4	1	4-5	1-2
Richard Goods F	12	0	4	2	0-1	0-0
Bench
Tomas Valentiny F	26	5	8	2	2-6	1-2
Andrej Shoshkikj G	16	3	0	0	0-2	0-2
Oleg Kojenets F	14	0	5	0	0-3	0-0
Ethan Simmon G	12	13	3	0	3-5	3-5
Jonah Butler G	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jake Harbatkin, Andrew Okafor, Liam Dagostino, Toby Onyekonwu, Leon Nahar

BCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Arterio Morris G	32	9	6	3	4-12	0-3
Jakobi Heady G	31	4	7	0	0-5	0-0
Quentin Heady F	30	22	6	1	6-13	0-2
Jordan Johnson G	21	4	4	0	1-5	1-2
Daniel Perez-Rouzan F	20	10	1	0	5-9	0-0
Bench
Ariel Bland F	23	0	12	0	0-2	0-0
Seneca Willoughby G	20	5	3	2	2-6	1-2
Rickey Mitchell Jr. G	18	0	2	1	0-5	0-3
David Onanina C	5	0	2	0	0-3	0-0

Did not play: Trayvon Barbary, Dailon Minor, William Gonzalez, Simeon Womack, Doctor Bradley, Reggie Ward Jr., Tyler Andrews

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BCU -4.5	BCU -4.0	STBK +0.5	W STBK covered
Total	145.5	152.4	Over 6.9	L Under
Projected score	—	STBK 74.2 · BCU 78.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BCU -2.3	BCU -11.0
1H total	71.4	49
1H projected score	STBK 34.6 · BCU 36.8	STBK 19 · BCU 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
STBK WWWL	3-1	75%	0-1	1-1
BCU WLWWL	3-2	60%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: STBK neutral site, as underdog; BCU neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
STBK UOOU	2-2	50%	2-2
BCU OOOUU	3-2	60%	1-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STBKlast 4	2-2 50%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%
BCUlast 5	1-4 20%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Stony Brook

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsME	W 71-60	-3.5	W +7.5	131.5	U 131
Nov 15	@YALE	L 79-86	+20.5	W +13.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 20	vsBRWN	W 80-70	-3.5	W +6.5	136.5	O 150
Nov 24	vsPAC	L 58-86	+4.5	L −23.5	145.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 71-60

+7.5

YALE

L 79-86

+13.5

BRWN

W 80-70

+6.5

PAC

L 58-86

−23.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 71-60

−0.5

YALE

L 79-86

+14.5

BRWN

W 80-70

+13.5

PAC

L 58-86

−1.5

over 2under 2avg +6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bethune

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +8.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@AUB	L 90-95	+24.5	W +19.5	153.5	O 185
Nov 6	@MIA	L 61-101	+16.5	L −23.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 15	@DAY	L 82-91	+21.5	W +12.5	148.5	O 173
Nov 19	@OHIO	W 76-73	+6.5	W +9.5	157.5	U 149
Nov 24	vsJAX	L 64-69	-3.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AUB

L 90-95

+19.5

MIA

L 61-101

−23.5

DAY

L 82-91

+12.5

OHIO

W 76-73

+9.5

JAX

L 64-69

−8.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AUB

L 90-95

+31.5

MIA

L 61-101

+7.5

DAY

L 82-91

+24.5

OHIO

W 76-73

−8.5

JAX

L 64-69

−10.5

over 3under 2avg +8.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Stony Brook vs Bethune

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Stony Brook

Bethune

Stony Brook

Bethune