MGM Grand Garden Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
HOU -11.5✓ ND covered by 1.5
HOU -11.5✓ ND covered by 1.5Closing total132.5Under by 10.5
 ND | This season | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 6-1 |
| 3-4 | ATS | 2-5 |
| 3-4 | O/U | 4-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ND 61–75 HOU · ✓ HOU (89%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ND | 25 | 31 | 56 |
| HOU | 39 | 27 | 66 |
1st half: ND 25, HOU 39 (HOU by 14). The model had HOU by 8.5 and a total of 63.7 (actual 64).
Team stats
| ND | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 17-50 34% | Field goals | 20-59 34% |
| 6-28 21% | 3-pointers | 8-27 30% |
| 16-21 76% | Free throws | 18-23 78% |
| 34 9 off | Rebounds | 44 16 off |
| 10 | Assists | 15 |
| 2 | Steals | 4 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 17 |
| 20 | Points in paint | 20 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 2 |
Players
| ND | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Burton G | 40 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 6-14 | 1-4 |
| Carson Towt F | 25 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jalen Haralson G | 22 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 4-8 | 0-1 |
| Braeden Shrewsberry G | 20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Garrett Sundra F | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ryder Frost F | 24 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-8 | 1-7 |
| Logan Imes G | 22 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Cole Certa G | 20 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| Kebba Njie F | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Sir Mohammed G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Brady Stevens, Brady Koehler, Tommy Ahneman, Luke Devine, Matthew MacLellan
| HOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milos Uzan G | 38 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 4-10 | 3-8 |
| Emanuel Sharp G | 33 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 5-16 | 4-11 |
| Kingston Flemings G | 22 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Joseph Tugler F | 20 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Chris Cenac Jr. F | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ramon Walker Jr. G | 24 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 4-6 | 1-3 |
| Mercy Miller G | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Isiah Harwell G | 12 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-0 |
| Kalifa Sakho F | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Cedric Lath C | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Chase McCarty F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Kordel Jefferson G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Bryce Jackson, Jacob McFarland
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketHOU -11.5
ModelHOU -14.3
Model edgeHOU +2.8
L ND covered
Total
Market132.5
Model136.0
Model edgeOver 3.5
L Under
Projected score
ND 60.8 · HOU 75.2
ND 56 · HOU 66
Win probability
HOU 89%
1st half
Spread
HOU -8.5
HOU -14.0
Total
63.7
64 points
Projected score
ND 27.6 · HOU 36.1
ND 25 · HOU 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenHOU -10.5
1 → HOU
CloseHOU -11.5
1 pt toward HOU
Total
Open134.5
▼ 2
Close132.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
ND +550 · HOU -800
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened HOU -10.5 · closed HOU -11.5 · moved 1 toward HOUmodel HOU -14.5
model HOU -14.5
Opened 134.5 · closed 132.5 · moved 2 downmodel 136
model 136
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDlast 7 | 5-2 71% | 3-4 43% | 3-4 43% |
| HOUlast 7 | 6-1 86% | 2-5 29% | 4-3 57% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
ND 0–1 HOUHOU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · ND 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2024-25 | HOU 65 vs ND 54 | ND +16.5 | ND W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Notre Dame
7 games played
Straight up
5-2
71% wins
Against the spread
3-4
43% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-4
43% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LIU | W 89-67 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 135.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 7 | vs DETM | W 102-70 | -21.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 11 | vs EIU | W 78-58 | -23.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 16 | @ OSU | L 63-64 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 19 | vs BELL | W 86-79 | -24.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 24 | vs KU | L 61-71 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 25 | vs RUTG | W 68-63 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+6.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+10.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−3.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
+8.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
−17.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−4.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−1.5
covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+20.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+24.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−7.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
−29.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
+14.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−11.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−9.5
over 3under 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Houston
7 games played
Straight up
6-1
86% wins
Against the spread
2-5
29% covers · avg −6.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LEH | W 75-57 | -36.5 | L −18.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 8 | vs TOW | W 65-48 | -26.5 | L −9.5 | 130.5 | U 113 |
| Nov 12 | vs OAK | W 78-45 | -30.5 | W +2.5 | 138.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 16 | vs AUB | W 73-72 | -7.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 20 | vs RID | W 91-45 | -40.5 | W +5.5 | 134.5 | O 136 |
| Nov 24 | vs SYR | W 78-74 | -14.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs TENN | L 73-76 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLEH
LEHW 75-57
−18.5
8
vsTOW
TOWW 65-48
−9.5
12
vsOAK
OAKW 78-45
+2.5
16
vsAUB
AUBW 73-72
−6.5
20
vsRID
RIDW 91-45
+5.5
24
vsSYR
SYRW 78-74
−10.5
25
vsTENN
TENNL 73-76
−5.5
covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLEH
LEHW 75-57
−4.5
8
vsTOW
TOWW 65-48
−17.5
12
vsOAK
OAKW 78-45
−15.5
16
vsAUB
AUBW 73-72
+4.5
20
vsRID
RIDW 91-45
+1.5
24
vsSYR
SYRW 78-74
+11.5
25
vsTENN
TENNL 73-76
+12.5
over 4under 3avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Notre Dame
5-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Rutgers68–63
- Lvs Kansas61–71
- Wvs Bellarmine86–79
- L@ Ohio State63–64
- Wvs E Illinois78–58
1 day since their last game.
Houston
6-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Tennessee73–76
- Wvs Syracuse78–74
- Wvs Rider91–45
- Wvs Auburn73–72
- Wvs Oakland78–45
1 day since their last game.