Toledo Rockets vs Troy Trojans: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 11:00 AM ETAlico Arena · Neutral site

#157TOLToledo75▲ winner

Final

#147TROYTroy68final

Closing lineTROY -2.5✓ TOL covered by 9.5

Closing total159.5Under by 16.5

Season records: Toledo and Troy
TOL	This season	TROY
3-2	Record	3-3
2-3	ATS	4-2
2-3	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: TOL 82–87 TROY · ✗ TROY (69%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
TOL	30	45	75
TROY	36	32	68

1st half: TOL 30, TROY 36 (TROY by 6). The model had TROY by 3.2 and a total of 79.2 (actual 66).

Team stats

TOL		TROY
28-61 46%	Field goals	26-65 40%
6-18 33%	3-pointers	5-28 18%
13-17 76%	Free throws	11-14 79%
38 12 off	Rebounds	39 14 off
16	Assists	12
11	Steals	5
7	Blocks	5
11	Turnovers	12
15	Fouls	17
36	Points in paint	42
19	Fast-break points	10

Players

TOL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Sonny Wilson G	36	23	4	1	10-13	2-2
Leroy Blyden Jr. G	35	13	2	4	4-11	2-5
Sean Craig F	34	9	11	2	3-7	1-3
Kyler Vanderjagt G	28	14	2	3	5-15	1-6
Austin Parks C	20	4	5	2	1-3	0-1
Bench
Jaylan Ouwinga F	22	8	4	2	3-8	0-1
Chris Riddle F	15	2	2	2	1-1	0-0
Will James Jr. G	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Mynor Strong G	5	2	0	0	1-3	0-0

Did not play: London Praytor, Phoenix Glassnor, Toby Nwokolo, Tyler Ode

TROY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Thomas Dowd F	38	10	11	1	4-12	0-5
Cooper Campbell G	37	12	2	5	5-12	1-5
Victor Valdes F	33	5	6	4	1-11	1-6
Kerrington Kiel F	26	9	6	1	3-7	1-4
Theo Seng F	25	18	5	1	7-14	1-4
Bench
Austin Cross G	16	5	0	0	2-5	1-4
Jerrell Bellamy C	13	7	1	0	3-3	0-0
Javen Colbert G	8	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Corbin Green F	2	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Emmanuel Clarton G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Hikaru Awata, Javier Gilgeous-Glasgow, Evan Griffin, Cobi Campbell, Kameryn Mitchell

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TROY -2.5	TROY -5.5	TROY +3.0	L TOL covered
Total	159.5	169.0	Over 9.5	L Under
Projected score	—	TOL 81.8 · TROY 87.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TROY -3.2	TROY -6.0
1H total	79.2	66
1H projected score	TOL 38 · TROY 41.2	TOL 30 · TROY 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
TOL LLWLW	2-3	40%	—	1-0
TROY WLLWW	4-2	67%	—	0-1

Venue/role: TOL neutral site, as underdog; TROY neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL UUUOO	2-3	40%	3-2
TROY UUOOO	4-2	67%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOLlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%
TROYlast 6	3-3 50%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

TOL 0–1 TROYTROY leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · TOL 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 4, 2024-25	TOL 74 @ TROY 84	TROY -5.5	TROY W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Toledo

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +1.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUSA	L 74-76	-2.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 150
Nov 8	vsMRSH	L 73-85	-2.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 158
Nov 11	@WRST	W 81-71	+5.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 152
Nov 15	vsDETM	W 90-83	-10.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 173
Nov 19	vsYSU	W 92-75	-1.5	W +15.5	160.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−4.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−14.5

WRST

W 81-71

+15.5

DETM

W 90-83

−3.5

YSU

W 92-75

+15.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−0.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−2.5

WRST

W 81-71

−7.5

DETM

W 90-83

+13.5

YSU

W 92-75

+6.5

over 2under 3avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Troy

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +4.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +29.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

W W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@KENT	W 103-97	+3.5	W +9.5	142.5	O 200
Nov 7	@FUR	W 64-61	+2.5	W +5.5	152.5	U 125
Nov 14	@LMU	L 63-74	+4.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 137
Nov 16	@CSUN	L 85-94	-4.5	L −13.5	157.5	O 179
Nov 18	@SDSU	W 108-107	+14.5	W +15.5	137.5	O 215
Nov 20	@USC	L 106-107	+18.5	W +17.5	159.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

W 103-97

+9.5

FUR

W 64-61

+5.5

LMU

L 63-74

−6.5

CSUN

L 85-94

−13.5

SDSU

W 108-107

+15.5

USC

L 106-107

+17.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

W 103-97

+57.5

FUR

W 64-61

−27.5

LMU

L 63-74

−3.5

CSUN

L 85-94

+21.5

SDSU

W 108-107

+77.5

USC

L 106-107

+53.5

over 4under 2avg +29.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Toledo vs Troy

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Toledo

Troy

Toledo

Troy