Austin Peay Governors at Kansas City Roos: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 21, 6:00 PM ETSwinney Center · at Kansas City

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Austin Peay and Kansas City
APSU	This season	KC
4-5	Record	0-11
5-4	ATS	4-7
3-6	O/U	5-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects APSU 74–69 · win probability APSU 67%

Line

—

no line yet

Total

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model 142.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: APSU has more of the edges

APSU 8, KC 1 · 2025-26 so far

APSUBig

Three-pointers

APSU hits 35.3% and allows 33.2%; KC hits 28.4% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 38.0% and 36.8% of their shots

APSUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: APSU 53.0 and allows 52.2; KC 45.8 and allows 56.3

APSUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: APSU 29.7%, KC 26.4%. Defensive: APSU 71.1%, KC 64.1%

APSUBig

APSU offense vs KC defense

Offense 174th of 366 against a defense 335th, on the model’s ratings

APSUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: APSU 15.4%, KC 18.2%. Forced: APSU 17.9%, KC 16.4%

APSUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: APSU 37.6, KC 29.2. Allowed: APSU 32.8, KC 31.4

Context

Schedule so far

APSU has played the 318th-hardest schedule, KC the 234th. A record against a soft schedule means less

APSUSmall

KC offense vs APSU defense

Offense 321st of 366 against a defense 240th, on the model’s ratings

APSUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: APSU 30%, KC 0%. Transfers in: APSU 2, KC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

KCSmall

Home court

KC at home. This season: KC 0-3 at home, APSU 2-5 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: APSU 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; KC 3-2 ATS, margin -14.2

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: APSU plays 70.1 a game (114th fastest), KC 71.8 (45th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	APSU -5.0	—
Total	—	142.1	—
Projected score	—	APSU 73.5 · KC 68.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	APSU -3.1	—
1H total	66.6	—
1H projected score	APSU 34.8 · KC 31.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APSU LWLLW	5-4	56%	3-4	—
KC LLWWW	4-7	36%	1-2	—

Venue/role: APSU away; KC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
APSU OUOUO	3-6	33%	4-5
KC UOUOO	5-6	45%	0-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APSUlast 9	4-5 44%	5-4 56%	3-6 33%
KC	0-10 0%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Austin Peay

9 games played

Straight up

4-5

44% wins

Against the spread

5-4

56% covers · avg +3.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-6

33% overs · avg −5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-544%

W L W L L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-456%

W L W W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-633%

U U U U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@AF	W 74-54	-1.5	W +18.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 11	@WYO	L 65-79	+5.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 144
Nov 15	@UNCG	W 69-63	+1.5	W +7.5	145.5	U 132
Nov 18	@MISS	L 65-72	+20.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 21	@TLSA	L 75-84	+8.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 159
Nov 25	vsNIU	W 77-59	-6.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 136
Dec 3	@KENT	L 84-96	+8.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 180
Dec 7	@RGV	L 50-63	+2.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 113
Dec 12	vsETSU	W 76-75	+3.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 74-54

+18.5

WYO

L 65-79

−8.5

UNCG

W 69-63

+7.5

MISS

L 65-72

+13.5

TLSA

L 75-84

−0.5

NIU

W 77-59

+11.5

KENT

L 84-96

−3.5

RGV

L 50-63

−10.5

ETSU

W 76-75

+4.5

covered 5didn’t cover 4avg +3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 74-54

−8.5

WYO

L 65-79

−9.5

UNCG

W 69-63

−13.5

MISS

L 65-72

−8.5

TLSA

L 75-84

+10.5

NIU

W 77-59

−11.5

KENT

L 84-96

+26.5

RGV

L 50-63

−38.5

ETSU

W 76-75

+7.5

over 3under 6avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kansas City

11 games played

Straight up

0-11

0% wins

Against the spread

4-7

36% covers · avg −2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-6

45% overs · avg −1.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-110%

L L L L L L L L L L L

11 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-736%

L L W L L L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-645%

O O U U U U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SIU	L 78-101	+12.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 179
Nov 11	vsIONA	L 91-105	+4.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 196
Nov 15	@TEX	L 55-71	+31.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 126
Nov 19	@TCU	L 45-81	+23.5	L −12.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 24	@LIN	L 67-80	+4.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 29	@WEB	L 61-82	+10.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 143
Dec 3	vsIDST	L 59-68	+5.5	L −3.5	137.5	U 127
Dec 6	@EWU	L 66-90	+9.5	L −14.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsWEB	L 60-64	+7.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 124
Dec 16	@OU	L 67-89	+30.5	W +8.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 18	@OKST	L 79-91	+27.5	W +15.5	161.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

−10.5

IONA

L 91-105

−9.5

TEX

L 55-71

+15.5

TCU

L 45-81

−12.5

LIN

L 67-80

−8.5

WEB

L 61-82

−10.5

IDST

L 59-68

−3.5

EWU

L 66-90

−14.5

WEB

L 60-64

+3.5

L 67-89

+8.5

OKST

L 79-91

+15.5

covered 4didn’t cover 7avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

+37.5

IONA

L 91-105

+39.5

TEX

L 55-71

−33.5

TCU

L 45-81

−24.5

LIN

L 67-80

−5.5

WEB

L 61-82

−12.5

IDST

L 59-68

−10.5

EWU

L 66-90

+4.5

WEB

L 60-64

−26.5

L 67-89

+2.5

OKST

L 79-91

+8.5

over 5under 6avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Austin Peay has the better starters

Position by position: Austin Peay 2, Kansas City 0, even 3

Austin PeayBetterKansas City

G Z. Collins13.7 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 60

APSUSmall

G C. Daughtery TR10 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 45

G C. Love TR7.2 pts · 2.6 reb · 1 ast Score 44

Even

G J. Smith TR9.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 3 ast Score 43

G S. Hugie TR4.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 32

Even

G M. Samar TR4.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 28

G C. Ryans NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F S. Hartmann TR8.2 pts · 5 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

F R. Marshall16.3 pts · 7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 92

APSUBig

F A. Diop TR5.5 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 29

Austin PeayBetterKansas City

APSU offense174th of 366 · -5.4

APSUBig

KC defense335th of 366 · -8.8

APSU defense240th of 366 · -6.3

APSUSmall

KC offense321st of 366 · -10.5

Backcourt-1.7 · 4 players

APSUSmall

Backcourt-3.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+3.8 · 1 player

APSUBig

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestAPSU betterKC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Austin Peay

Guards

Z. Collins30 minC. Love25 min · TRS. Hugie12 min · TRC. RyansNewP. SingletonNewT. ToddNew

Forwards

R. Marshall30 minD. BoldenNewA. DavisNew

Kansas City

Guards

C. Daughtery27 min · TRJ. Smith25 min · TRM. Samar16 min · TRE. MoskowitzNewD. JacksonNewC. LoveNew

Forwards

S. Hartmann24 min · TRA. Diop19 min · TRR. ButirinsNewJ. SickingNewA. BakhtadzeNewM. Bruce-McCrommonNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

APSU79.0 #79

KC67.0 #334

Points per possession

APSU1.13 #91

KC0.93 #361

Pace (possessions)

APSU70.1 #114

KC71.8 #45

Shooting

Effective FG%

APSU53.0 #105

KC45.8 #352

3-point %

APSU35.3 #99

KC28.4 #360

3-point attempt rate

APSU38.0 #215

KC36.8 #235

Free throw rate

APSU37.6 #110

KC29.2 #330

Possessions

Turnover rate

APSU15.4 #94

KC18.2 #282

Offensive rebound rate

APSU29.7 #214

KC26.4 #314

Assists per game

APSU15.3 #76

KC11.3 #324

Defense

Points allowed

APSU74.6 #179

KC84.8 #359

Points allowed per possession

APSU1.06 #119

KC1.18 #348

Opponent effective FG%

APSU52.2 #227

KC56.3 #348

Opponent 3-point %

APSU33.2 #137

KC37.5 #350

Turnovers forced

APSU17.9 #103

KC16.4 #193

Defensive rebound rate

APSU71.1 #100

KC64.1 #353

Steals per game

APSU8.4 #22

KC6.4 #192

Blocks per game

APSU2.2 #329

KC3.1 #195

APSU		KC
Scoring
79.0 #79	Points per game	67.0 #334
1.13 #91	Points per possession	0.93 #361
70.1 #114	Pace (possessions)	71.8 #45
Shooting
53.0 #105	Effective FG%	45.8 #352
35.3 #99	3-point %	28.4 #360
38.0 #215	3-point attempt rate	36.8 #235
37.6 #110	Free throw rate	29.2 #330
Possessions
15.4 #94	Turnover rate	18.2 #282
29.7 #214	Offensive rebound rate	26.4 #314
15.3 #76	Assists per game	11.3 #324
Defense
74.6 #179	Points allowed	84.8 #359
1.06 #119	Points allowed per possession	1.18 #348
52.2 #227	Opponent effective FG%	56.3 #348
33.2 #137	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #350
17.9 #103	Turnovers forced	16.4 #193
71.1 #100	Defensive rebound rate	64.1 #353
8.4 #22	Steals per game	6.4 #192
2.2 #329	Blocks per game	3.1 #195

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Austin Peay

4-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs ETSU76–75
L@ UT Rio Grande50–63
L@ Kent State84–96
Wvs N Illinois77–59
L@ Tulsa75–84

A week or more of rest.

Kansas City

0-11 overall · 0-0 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Oklahoma St79–91
L@ Oklahoma67–89
Lvs Weber St60–64
L@ E Washington66–90
Lvs Idaho St59–68

3 days since their last game.

Austin Peay Governors at Kansas City Roos

What could decide it: APSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Austin Peay

Kansas City

Austin Peay has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Austin Peay

Kansas City