Morgan State Bears at South Carolina State Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Feb 14, 4:30 PM ETSmith-Hammond-Middleton Memorial Center · at SC State · Conference game

LineSCST -1.5moved 3 toward SCST

Total155.5up 1 from 154.5

Season records: Morgan St and SC State
MORG	This season	SCST
7-13	Record	4-17
11-9	ATS	9-12
11-9	O/U	10-11

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SCST 78–77 · win probability SCST 54%

Line

SCST -1.5

moved 3 toward SCST

Total

155.5

model 155.2

Model edge

Even

matches the market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MORG has more of the edges

MORG 3, SCST 1 · 2025-26 so far

MORGSmall

Recent form

Last 5: MORG 5-0 ATS, margin +4.0; SCST 3-2 ATS, margin -3.6

MORGSmall

MORG offense vs SCST defense

Offense 293rd of 366 against a defense 351st, on the model’s ratings

SCSTSmall

Home court

SCST at home. This season: SCST 3-3 at home, MORG 4-8 away

MORGSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MORG 45.8 and allows 51.7; SCST 46.8 and allows 53.9

Context

Schedule so far

MORG has played the 360th-hardest schedule, SCST the 317th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

SCST offense vs MORG defense

Offense 341st of 366 against a defense 360th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MORG 17.8%, SCST 20.8%. Forced: MORG 16.5%, SCST 18.8%

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: MORG plays 71.1 a game (73rd fastest), SCST 70.3 (102nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MORG 42.7, SCST 41.0. Allowed: MORG 50.9, SCST 51.9

Even

Three-pointers

MORG hits 31.7% and allows 31.5%; SCST hits 34.0% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 35.2% and 33.3% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MORG 36%, SCST 34%. Transfers in: MORG 3, SCST 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MORG 30.7%, SCST 31.4%. Defensive: MORG 64.8%, SCST 62.4%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of under 3	1938	56%	51%	49%
Conference games at this spread	2832	55%	51%	49%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite	6763	75%	50%	51%
Games with a total of 155 to 159.5	1555	74%	51%	49%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	SCST -1.5	SCST -1.1	MORG +0.4
Total	155.5	155.2	Under 0.3
Projected score	—	MORG 77 · SCST 78.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SCST -0.6	—
1H total	72.6	—
1H projected score	MORG 36 · SCST 36.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MORG WWWWW	11-9	55%	5-7	8-9
SCST WLWWL	9-12	43%	4-2	1-0

Venue/role: MORG away, as underdog; SCST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MORG OOOOO	11-9	55%	7-13
SCST OOUUO	10-11	48%	4-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MORG	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
SCST	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MORG 6–4 SCSTMORG leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MORG 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 10, 2025-26	SCST 67 @ MORG 72	MORG -4.5	MORG W
Feb 15, 2024-25	MORG 62 @ SCST 90	SCST -9.5	SCST W
Jan 4, 2024-25	SCST 86 @ MORG 72	MORG +5.5	SCST W
Mar 2, 2023-24	SCST 72 @ MORG 61	MORG +1.5	SCST W
Feb 3, 2023-24	MORG 72 @ SCST 70	SCST -4.5	MORG W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Morgan St

20 games played

Straight up

7-13

35% wins

Against the spread

11-9

55% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-9

55% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-1335%

L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-955%

W W L L L W W L W L L L L W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-955%

O U O U U U O U O U O U U U O O O O O O

6 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GTWN	L 70-87	+27.5	W +10.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 11	vsUMBC	L 79-81	+4.5	W +2.5	162.5	U 160
Nov 15	@MERC	L 72-86	+6.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 18	vsNCAT	L 73-79	+2.5	L −3.5	161.5	U 152
Nov 21	@ODU	L 56-88	+11.5	L −20.5	156.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsDREX	L 66-71	+5.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 137
Dec 6	vsLONG	L 80-84	+5.5	W +1.5	154.5	O 164
Dec 9	@DEP	L 49-92	+21.5	L −21.5	150.5	U 141
Dec 13	vsNIA	W 81-73	-1.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 19	@CAL	L 50-97	+26.5	L −20.5	151.5	U 147
Dec 21	@SF	L 64-94	+25.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 158
Dec 23	@LMU	L 56-83	+23.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 139
Jan 3	@UMES	L 49-66	+6.5	L −10.5	138.5	U 115
Jan 10	vsSCST	W 72-67	-4.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 12	vsNCCU	L 78-89	+3.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 167
Jan 17	@DSU	W 80-79	+3.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 159
Jan 24	@HOW	W 78-77	+14.5	W +15.5	148.5	O 155
Jan 26	@NORF	W 79-78	+7.5	W +8.5	152.5	O 157
Jan 31	@COPP	W 89-80	-3.5	W +5.5	155.5	O 169
Feb 7	vsUMES	W 79-71	+1.5	W +9.5	140.5	O 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GTWN

L 70-87

+10.5

UMBC

L 79-81

+2.5

MERC

L 72-86

−7.5

NCAT

L 73-79

−3.5

ODU

L 56-88

−20.5

DREX

L 66-71

+0.5

LONG

L 80-84

+1.5

DEP

L 49-92

−21.5

NIA

W 81-73

+6.5

CAL

L 50-97

−20.5

L 64-94

−4.5

LMU

L 56-83

−3.5

UMES

L 49-66

−10.5

SCST

W 72-67

+0.5

NCCU

L 78-89

−7.5

DSU

W 80-79

+4.5

HOW

W 78-77

+15.5

NORF

W 79-78

+8.5

COPP

W 89-80

+5.5

UMES

W 79-71

+9.5

covered 11didn’t cover 9avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GTWN

L 70-87

+2.5

UMBC

L 79-81

−2.5

MERC

L 72-86

+11.5

NCAT

L 73-79

−9.5

ODU

L 56-88

−12.5

DREX

L 66-71

−6.5

LONG

L 80-84

+9.5

DEP

L 49-92

−9.5

NIA

W 81-73

+13.5

CAL

L 50-97

−4.5

L 64-94

+12.5

LMU

L 56-83

−5.5

UMES

L 49-66

−23.5

SCST

W 72-67

−8.5

NCCU

L 78-89

+25.5

DSU

W 80-79

+22.5

HOW

W 78-77

+6.5

NORF

W 79-78

+4.5

COPP

W 89-80

+13.5

UMES

W 79-71

+9.5

over 11under 9avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

SC State

21 games played

Straight up

4-17

19% wins

Against the spread

9-12

43% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-11

48% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-1719%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-1243%

L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

10-1148%

U U U U U O O O U U O O O O U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LOU	L 45-104	+35.5	L −23.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 7	@SAM	L 72-82	+14.5	W +4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 10	@NCAT	L 62-85	+2.5	L −20.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 14	@COFC	L 61-88	+18.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsUTC	L 66-78	+11.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 144
Nov 23	@SDAK	L 81-82	+15.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 163
Nov 25	@MIZ	L 66-98	+34.5	W +2.5	160.5	O 164
Nov 29	@WIN	L 79-101	+20.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 5	@BCU	L 59-80	+13.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 8	@CHSO	L 44-84	+12.5	L −27.5	156.5	U 128
Dec 12	@QUC	L 78-102	+18.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 16	vsUPST	L 72-78	+10.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 22	@SC	L 70-95	+31.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 30	@TENN	L 54-105	+44.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 3	vsHOW	W 58-57	+8.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 115
Jan 10	@MORG	L 67-72	+4.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 12	@COPP	W 74-72	+1.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsNORF	L 82-89	+5.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 26	vsDSU	W 70-64	-1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 134
Feb 4	vsUMES	W 63-54	+3.5	W +12.5	133.5	U 117
Feb 7	@HOW	L 57-85	+14.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−23.5

SAM

L 72-82

+4.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−20.5

COFC

L 61-88

−8.5

UTC

L 66-78

−0.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+14.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+2.5

WIN

L 79-101

−1.5

BCU

L 59-80

−7.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−27.5

QUC

L 78-102

−5.5

UPST

L 72-78

+4.5

L 70-95

+6.5

TENN

L 54-105

−6.5

HOW

W 58-57

+9.5

MORG

L 67-72

−0.5

COPP

W 74-72

+3.5

NORF

L 82-89

−1.5

DSU

W 70-64

+4.5

UMES

W 63-54

+12.5

HOW

L 57-85

−13.5

covered 9didn’t cover 12avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−10.5

SAM

L 72-82

−0.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−12.5

COFC

L 61-88

−7.5

UTC

L 66-78

−10.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+2.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+3.5

WIN

L 79-101

+22.5

BCU

L 59-80

−9.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−28.5

QUC

L 78-102

+22.5

UPST

L 72-78

+2.5

L 70-95

+15.5

TENN

L 54-105

+11.5

HOW

W 58-57

−29.5

MORG

L 67-72

−8.5

COPP

W 74-72

+5.5

NORF

L 82-89

+31.5

DSU

W 70-64

−1.5

UMES

W 63-54

−16.5

HOW

L 57-85

+0.5

over 10under 11avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Morgan St 1, SC State 1, even 3

Morgan StBetterSC State

G A. Worrell16.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 70

MORGBig

G D. Jackson TR6.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 24

G J. Awoke TR6.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 12

Even

G N. Treadwell9.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 25

G D. Bumpass2.7 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

F D. Hodge2.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 1

F K. Horton TR7.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 19

SCSTSmall

F C. Parker6.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 53

F T. Edwards3.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F T. Tindal2.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.2 ast Score 12

Morgan StBetterSC State

MORG offense293rd of 366 · -9.1

MORGSmall

SCST defense351st of 366 · -9.8

MORG defense360th of 366 · -11.0

Even

SCST offense341st of 366 · -11.6

Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt-2.7 · 2 players

MORGSmall

Frontcourt-4.2 · 3 players

Bench-2.4 · 4 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestMORG betterSCST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Morgan St

Guards

A. Worrell30 minJ. Awoke25 min · TRD. Bumpass9 minB. Barnett2 minJ. KwartengNewK. RichardNew

Forwards

K. Horton20 min · TRT. Edwards17 minM. Wade8 minM. Lual7 minI. Traore6 min · TRT. PettigrewNew

SC State

Guards

D. Jackson23 min · TRN. Treadwell23 minB. JacksonNewM. TaylorNewB. HarrisNewC. BarnesNew

Forwards

D. Hodge18 minC. Parker18 minT. Tindal10 minJ. PrettyNewB. AdamsNewA. NGomabieNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MORG71.7 #252

SCST67.4 #325

Points per possession

MORG1.01 #316

SCST0.96 #353

Pace (possessions)

MORG71.1 #73

SCST70.3 #102

Shooting

Effective FG%

MORG45.8 #351

SCST46.8 #341

3-point %

MORG31.7 #295

SCST34.0 #173

3-point attempt rate

MORG35.2 #274

SCST33.3 #312

Free throw rate

MORG42.7 #22

SCST41.0 #47

Possessions

Turnover rate

MORG17.8 #262

SCST20.8 #355

Offensive rebound rate

MORG30.7 #172

SCST31.4 #146

Assists per game

MORG12.2 #269

SCST12.1 #281

Defense

Points allowed

MORG80.1 #321

SCST80.6 #327

Points allowed per possession

MORG1.13 #288

SCST1.15 #318

Opponent effective FG%

MORG51.7 #194

SCST53.9 #296

Opponent 3-point %

MORG31.5 #43

SCST33.5 #155

Turnovers forced

MORG16.5 #186

SCST18.8 #59

Defensive rebound rate

MORG64.8 #341

SCST62.4 #362

Steals per game

MORG4.3 #359

SCST6.9 #137

Blocks per game

MORG3.3 #172

SCST3.8 #98

MORG		SCST
Scoring
71.7 #252	Points per game	67.4 #325
1.01 #316	Points per possession	0.96 #353
71.1 #73	Pace (possessions)	70.3 #102
Shooting
45.8 #351	Effective FG%	46.8 #341
31.7 #295	3-point %	34.0 #173
35.2 #274	3-point attempt rate	33.3 #312
42.7 #22	Free throw rate	41.0 #47
Possessions
17.8 #262	Turnover rate	20.8 #355
30.7 #172	Offensive rebound rate	31.4 #146
12.2 #269	Assists per game	12.1 #281
Defense
80.1 #321	Points allowed	80.6 #327
1.13 #288	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #318
51.7 #194	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #296
31.5 #43	Opponent 3-point %	33.5 #155
16.5 #186	Turnovers forced	18.8 #59
64.8 #341	Defensive rebound rate	62.4 #362
4.3 #359	Steals per game	6.9 #137
3.3 #172	Blocks per game	3.8 #98

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Morgan St

7-13 overall · 6-2 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Wvs MD Eastern79–71
W@ Coppin St89–80
W@ Norfolk St79–78
W@ Howard78–77
W@ Delaware St80–79

A week or more of rest.

SC State

4-17 overall · 4-3 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Howard57–85
Wvs MD Eastern63–54
Wvs Delaware St70–64
Lvs Norfolk St82–89
W@ Coppin St74–72

A week or more of rest.

Morgan State Bears at South Carolina State Bulldogs

What could decide it: MORG has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Morgan St

SC State

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Morgan St

SC State