Winthrop Eagles at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 8:30 PM ETPinnacle Bank Arena · at Nebraska

#205WINWinthrop73final

Final

#27NEBNebraska80▲ winner

Closing lineNEB -14.5✓ WIN covered by 7.5

Closing total166.5Under by 13.5

Season records: Winthrop and Nebraska
WIN	This season	NEB
3-3	Record	6-0
5-1	ATS	4-2
2-4	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WIN 74–88 NEB · ✓ NEB (88%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WIN	36	37	73
NEB	32	48	80

1st half: WIN 36, NEB 32 (WIN by 4). The model had NEB by 8.0 and a total of 75.8 (actual 68).

Team stats

WIN		NEB
26-69 38%	Field goals	29-69 42%
13-42 31%	3-pointers	13-38 34%
8-13 62%	Free throws	9-10 90%
48 17 off	Rebounds	38 10 off
15	Assists	22
3	Steals	7
5	Blocks	5
11	Turnovers	5
15	Fouls	12
22	Points in paint	32
0	Fast-break points	2

Players

WIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kareem Rozier G	30	14	2	1	4-14	4-10
Daylen Berry G	26	12	6	2	5-15	2-10
Kody Clouet G	24	5	3	0	1-6	1-6
Logan Duncomb C	16	8	10	2	4-7	0-0
Isaiah Wilson G	13	2	0	1	1-2	0-1
Bench
Seifeldin Hendawy G	21	5	4	3	2-6	1-5
Tommy Kamarad F	19	8	4	2	3-6	2-4
Tai Hamilton F	14	4	4	2	2-3	0-0
Pharrell Boyogueno G	14	11	6	1	3-5	3-4
Josh Meo G	14	0	3	1	0-4	0-2
Ed Nnamoko F	9	4	4	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Kaleb Evans, Braylhan Thomas, Henry Harrison, Cam Christy

NEB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Rienk Mast F	33	31	5	4	11-18	7-10
Braden Frager F	31	11	6	2	4-13	1-7
Sam Hoiberg G	31	2	6	6	1-2	0-1
Pryce Sandfort F	30	10	8	2	4-13	2-10
Jamarques Lawrence G	26	5	1	4	2-6	1-3
Bench
Cale Jacobsen G	27	11	6	2	4-7	0-0
Jared Garcia F	11	7	2	0	2-4	1-2
Connor Essegian G	11	3	2	2	1-6	1-5

Did not play: Justin Bolis, Leo Curtis, Quentin Rhymes, Will Cooper, Berke Buyuktuncel, Kendall Blue, Ugnius Jarusevicius, Henry Burt

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NEB -14.5	NEB -13.4	WIN +1.1	W WIN covered
Total	166.5	161.9	Under 4.6	W Under
Projected score	—	WIN 74.3 · NEB 87.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NEB -8.0	WIN -4.0
1H total	75.8	68
1H projected score	WIN 33.9 · NEB 41.9	WIN 36 · NEB 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIN WLWWW	5-1	83%	3-1	2-0
NEB WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-1	4-2

Venue/role: WIN away, as underdog; NEB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIN OUOUU	2-4	33%	3-3
NEB OUOOO	4-2	67%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WINlast 6	3-3 50%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%
NEBlast 6	6-0 100%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Winthrop

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-183%

W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsQUC	W 81-74	-3.5	W +3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 7	@GMU	L 90-96	+9.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 186
Nov 11	@CCU	L 66-72	-2.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 138
Nov 15	vsMER	W 105-69	-2.5	W +33.5	162.5	O 174
Nov 18	@ARK	L 83-84	+23.5	W +22.5	168.5	U 167
Nov 23	@JKST	W 80-62	-10.5	W +7.5	163.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

+3.5

GMU

L 90-96

+3.5

CCU

L 66-72

−8.5

MER

W 105-69

+33.5

ARK

L 83-84

+22.5

JKST

W 80-62

+7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

−8.5

GMU

L 90-96

+39.5

CCU

L 66-72

−27.5

MER

W 105-69

+11.5

ARK

L 83-84

−1.5

JKST

W 80-62

−21.5

over 2under 4avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nebraska

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

U O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWGA	W 86-53	-24.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 139
Nov 8	vsFIU	W 96-66	-21.5	W +8.5	156.5	O 162
Nov 11	vsUMES	W 69-50	-35.5	L −16.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 15	vsOU	W 105-99	-1.5	W +4.5	163.5	O 204
Nov 20	vsUNM	W 84-72	-8.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsKSU	W 86-85	-1.5	L −0.5	168.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WGA

W 86-53

+8.5

FIU

W 96-66

+8.5

UMES

W 69-50

−16.5

W 105-99

+4.5

UNM

W 84-72

+3.5

KSU

W 86-85

−0.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WGA

W 86-53

−14.5

FIU

W 96-66

+5.5

UMES

W 69-50

−27.5

W 105-99

+40.5

UNM

W 84-72

+4.5

KSU

W 86-85

+2.5

over 4under 2avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Winthrop @ Nebraska

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Winthrop

Nebraska

Winthrop

Nebraska