Northern Colorado Bears at Omaha Mavericks: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 8:00 PM ETBaxter Arena · at Omaha

#219UNCON Colorado75▲ winner

Final

#279OMAOmaha70final

Closing lineUNCO -3.5✓ UNCO covered by 1.5

Closing total157.5Under by 12.5

Season records: N Colorado and Omaha
UNCO	This season	OMA
4-1	Record	1-6
4-1	ATS	1-6
3-2	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNCO 82–81 OMA · ✓ UNCO (54%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UNCO	36	39	75
OMA	33	37	70

1st half: UNCO 36, OMA 33 (UNCO by 3). The model had UNCO by 0.8 and a total of 75.9 (actual 69).

Team stats

UNCO		OMA
26-60 43%	Field goals	24-55 44%
10-29 34%	3-pointers	7-19 37%
13-15 87%	Free throws	15-22 68%
37 10 off	Rebounds	33 8 off
16	Assists	9
6	Steals	5
1	Blocks	4
9	Turnovers	9
18	Fouls	15
30	Points in paint	32
5	Fast-break points	6

Players

UNCO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brock Wisne F	37	20	8	1	8-16	2-4
Quinn Denker G	36	22	3	8	9-14	2-5
Zach Bloch G	35	6	6	2	2-7	2-7
Ibu Yamazaki F	33	16	6	2	5-11	3-9
Ring Nyeri F	22	0	4	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Vincent Delano G	23	11	2	1	2-6	1-3
Egan Shields C	10	0	4	2	0-3	0-0
Ariik Mawien G	3	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
William Humer F	1	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Tanner Braketa, Steven Ramirez Jr., Kaden Ericksen, Will Dixion III, Hunter Caldwell, Walker Asp, Chancellor White

OMA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kamryn Thomas F	39	3	7	1	1-8	0-1
Ja'Sean Glover G	39	26	6	3	9-15	2-4
Lance Waddles G	37	19	7	3	6-14	4-9
Khamani Cooper G	36	7	3	2	1-9	1-5
Christian Richardson C	20	6	2	0	3-4	0-0
Bench
Brock Scholl F	18	9	6	0	4-5	0-0
Aidan Skradis G	7	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Valentino Simon F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Julian Margrave F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Rob Matos, Benji Nelson, Isaac Ondekane, Grant Stubblefield, Deng Mayar, Tony Osburn, Paul Djobet

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNCO -3.5	UNCO -1.1	OMA +2.4	L UNCO covered
Total	157.5	162.2	Over 4.7	L Under
Projected score	—	UNCO 81.7 · OMA 80.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCO -0.8	UNCO -3.0
1H total	75.9	69
1H projected score	UNCO 38.4 · OMA 37.5	UNCO 36 · OMA 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNCO WWWLW	4-1	80%	3-0	3-1
OMA LLLLL	1-6	14%	0-1	1-5

Venue/role: UNCO away, as favorite; OMA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNCO OUOOU	3-2	60%	4-1
OMA OOOOU	5-2	71%	1-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNCOlast 5	4-1 80%	4-1 80%	3-2 60%
OMAlast 7	1-6 14%	1-6 14%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Colorado

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +4.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 15	@PEPP	W 88-81	-1.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 21	vsSTMN	L 72-73	+4.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 145
Nov 22	@PORT	W 86-80	-3.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 23	vsCSUF	W 97-93	-8.5	L −4.5	164.5	O 190
Nov 26	@AF	W 71-53	-4.5	W +13.5	146.5	U 124

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PEPP

W 88-81

+5.5

STMN

L 72-73

+3.5

PORT

W 86-80

+2.5

CSUF

W 97-93

−4.5

W 71-53

+13.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PEPP

W 88-81

+15.5

STMN

L 72-73

−12.5

PORT

W 86-80

+8.5

CSUF

W 97-93

+25.5

W 71-53

−22.5

over 3under 2avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Omaha

7 games played

Straight up

1-6

14% wins

Against the spread

1-6

14% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +5.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-614%

L L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-614%

L W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMUR	L 77-85	+5.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 162
Nov 6	@ACU	L 71-73	+4.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 144
Nov 9	@CSU	L 74-97	+14.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 171
Nov 15	vsSUU	W 90-85	-8.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 175
Nov 21	@LSU	L 73-99	+20.5	L −5.5	163.5	O 172
Nov 25	vsJMU	L 77-88	+1.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 165
Nov 26	@FIU	L 61-74	+4.5	L −8.5	157.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MUR

L 77-85

−2.5

ACU

L 71-73

+2.5

CSU

L 74-97

−8.5

SUU

W 90-85

−3.5

LSU

L 73-99

−5.5

JMU

L 77-88

−9.5

FIU

L 61-74

−8.5

covered 1didn’t cover 6avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MUR

L 77-85

+8.5

ACU

L 71-73

−6.5

CSU

L 74-97

+17.5

SUU

W 90-85

+21.5

LSU

L 73-99

+8.5

JMU

L 77-88

+12.5

FIU

L 61-74

−22.5

over 5under 2avg +5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

N Colorado @ Omaha

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

N Colorado

Omaha

N Colorado

Omaha