Matthew Knight Arena · at Oregon · Conference game
Closing line
USC -2.5✓ USC covered by 2.5
USC -2.5✓ USC covered by 2.5Closing total154.5Over by 4.5
| USC | This season | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | Record | 4-3 |
| 4-3 | ATS | 0-7 |
| 4-3 | O/U | 4-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USC 83–81 ORE · ✓ USC (56%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 39 | 43 | 82 |
| ORE | 39 | 38 | 77 |
1st half: USC 39, ORE 39 (tied). The model had USC by 1.2 and a total of 76.3 (actual 78).
Team stats
| USC | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-55 51% | Field goals | 25-53 47% |
| 8-21 38% | 3-pointers | 10-23 43% |
| 18-25 72% | Free throws | 17-26 65% |
| 35 14 off | Rebounds | 27 10 off |
| 10 | Assists | 14 |
| 9 | Steals | 8 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 19 | Fouls | 23 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 13 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| USC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Baker-Mazara G | 36 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 9-18 | 2-7 |
| Jacob Cofie F | 36 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 6-10 | 2-3 |
| Jerry Easter II G | 35 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Ezra Ausar F | 25 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 4-9 | 0-0 |
| Terrance Williams II F | 13 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaden Brownell F | 28 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 4-10 | 3-8 |
| Ryan Cornish G | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Jordan Marsh G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Amarion Dickerson F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Gabe Dynes C | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Patrick O'Brien, Brit Burden, Jonah Goorin, EJ Neal Jr., Alijah Arenas, Rodney Rice
| ORE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Shelstad G | 37 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 6-12 | 1-6 |
| Kwame Evans Jr. F | 36 | 23 | 9 | 2 | 6-12 | 2-5 |
| Takai Simpkins G | 31 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 5-9 | 4-6 |
| Devon Pryor G | 26 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Sean Stewart F | 21 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dez Lindsay F | 21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Ege Demir C | 11 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Wei Lin G | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Jamari Phillips G | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Oleksandr Kobzystyi F | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Drew Carter, Rian Gonzales, JJ Frakes, Nate Bittle, Efe Vatan, Luke Johnson, Miles Stewart
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUSC -2.5
ModelUSC -1.8
Model edgeORE +0.7
L USC covered
Total
Market154.5
Model163.2
Model edgeOver 8.7
W Over
Projected score
USC 82.5 · ORE 80.7
USC 82 · ORE 77
Win probability
USC 56%
1st half
Spread
USC -1.2
tied
Total
76.3
78 points
Projected score
USC 38.8 · ORE 37.5
USC 39 · ORE 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSC -2.5
no move
CloseUSC -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open157.5
▼ 3
Close154.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
USC -155 · ORE +130
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USC -2.5 · unchangedmodel USC -2
model USC -2
Opened 157.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 3 downmodel 163
model 163
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USClast 7 | 7-0 100% | 4-3 57% | 4-3 57% |
| ORElast 7 | 4-3 57% | 0-7 0% | 4-3 57% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
USC 1–6 OREORE leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · ORE has won the last 5 meetings · USC 1-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | USC 61 @ ORE 82 | ORE -7.5 | ORE W |
| Dec 4, 2024-25 | ORE 68 @ USC 60 | USC +6.5 | ORE W |
| Feb 1, 2023-24 | ORE 78 @ USC 69 | USC +2.5 | ORE W |
| Dec 28, 2023-24 | USC 74 @ ORE 82 | ORE -2.5 | ORE W |
| Feb 9, 2022-23 | USC 60 @ ORE 78 | ORE -4.5 | ORE W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
USC
7 games played
Straight up
7-0
100% wins
Against the spread
4-3
57% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +12.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CP | W 94-64 | -24.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 9 | vs MAN | W 114-83 | -28.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | O 197 |
| Nov 14 | vs ILST | W 87-67 | -15.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 20 | vs TROY | W 107-106 | -18.5 | L −17.5 | 159.5 | O 213 |
| Nov 24 | vs BOIS | W 70-67 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs HALL | W 83-81 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 26 | vs ASU | W 88-75 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
+5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+2.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
+4.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
−17.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−0.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
−4.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+8.5
covered 4didn’t cover 3avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
−5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+41.5
14
vsILST
ILSTW 87-67
−1.5
20
vsTROY
TROYW 107-106
+53.5
24
vsBOIS
BOISW 70-67
−18.5
25
vsHALL
HALLW 83-81
+18.5
26
vsASU
ASUW 88-75
+1.5
over 4under 3avg +12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Oregon
7 games played
Straight up
4-3
57% wins
Against the spread
0-7
0% covers · avg −8.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs HAW | W 60-59 | -11.5 | L −10.5 | 144.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 7 | vs RICE | W 67-63 | -15.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 12 | vs SDST | W 83-69 | -16.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 17 | vs ORST | W 87-75 | -13.5 | L −1.5 | 141.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 24 | vs AUB | L 73-84 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 25 | vs SDSU | L 80-97 | -2.5 | L −19.5 | 141.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 27 | vs CREI | L 66-76 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsHAW
HAWW 60-59
−10.5
7
vsRICE
RICEW 67-63
−11.5
12
vsSDST
SDSTW 83-69
−2.5
17
vsORST
ORSTW 87-75
−1.5
24
vsAUB
AUBL 73-84
−6.5
25
vsSDSU
SDSUL 80-97
−19.5
27
vsCREI
CREIL 66-76
−7.5
covered 0didn’t cover 7avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsHAW
HAWW 60-59
−25.5
7
vsRICE
RICEW 67-63
−15.5
12
vsSDST
SDSTW 83-69
+6.5
17
vsORST
ORSTW 87-75
+20.5
24
vsAUB
AUBL 73-84
+1.5
25
vsSDSU
SDSUL 80-97
+35.5
27
vsCREI
CREIL 66-76
−8.5
over 4under 3avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
USC
7-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Arizona St88–75
- Wvs Seton Hall83–81
- Wvs Boise St70–67
- Wvs Troy107–106
- Wvs Illinois St87–67
6 days since their last game.
Oregon
4-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Creighton66–76
- Lvs San Diego St80–97
- Lvs Auburn73–84
- Wvs Oregon St87–75
- Wvs S Dakota St83–69
5 days since their last game.