Freedom Hall (TN) · at ETSU
Closing line
ETSU -12.5✓ ETSU covered by 10.5
ETSU -12.5✓ ETSU covered by 10.5Closing total144.5Under by 7.5
 CARK | This season | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 4-1 |
| 3-3 | O/U | 2-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CARK 66–80 ETSU · ✓ ETSU (89%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CARK | 30 | 27 | 57 |
| ETSU | 37 | 43 | 80 |
1st half: CARK 30, ETSU 37 (ETSU by 7). The model had ETSU by 8.4 and a total of 68.3 (actual 67).
Team stats
| CARK | ETSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 19-60 32% | Field goals | 30-58 52% |
| 13-41 32% | 3-pointers | 12-31 39% |
| 6-8 75% | Free throws | 8-16 50% |
| 31 5 off | Rebounds | 37 4 off |
| 14 | Assists | 21 |
| 4 | Steals | 9 |
| 0 | Blocks | 5 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 10 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 3 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| CARK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Moore G | 28 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 4-10 | 3-7 |
| Camren Hunter G | 24 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 3-8 | 2-4 |
| Cole McCormick G | 20 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-11 | 2-9 |
| Ty Robinson G | 17 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0-8 | 0-5 |
| Malchiah Marable F | 16 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Truman Byrne F | 23 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Javion Guy-King G | 22 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2-7 | 1-4 |
| Harry Beauchamp G | 17 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Tyler Lee G | 17 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Ethan Thomas G | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Parker Applegate G | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Owen Dehrmann G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| J.C. Shulman G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: R.J. Newton, Rylie Marshall, Chris Mason, Rashad Bolden
| ETSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Taylor II G | 35 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 5-12 | 2-6 |
| Blake Barkley F | 24 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 5-7 | 1-2 |
| Cam Morris III F | 20 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 6-7 | 1-1 |
| Jordan McCullum F | 18 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Allen Strothers G | 17 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylen Smith G | 31 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 10-16 | 7-13 |
| Maki Johnson G | 25 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Brayden Crump F | 16 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Gabe Sisk G | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Isaiah Sutherland F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Henry Sisemore F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Joseph Carter G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Milton Matthews III, Maddox Huff, Frederico Whitaker Jr.
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketETSU -12.5
ModelETSU -14.2
Model edgeETSU +1.7
W ETSU covered
Total
Market144.5
Model145.7
Model edgeOver 1.2
L Under
Projected score
CARK 65.7 · ETSU 80
CARK 57 · ETSU 80
Win probability
ETSU 89%
1st half
Spread
ETSU -8.4
ETSU -7.0
Total
68.3
67 points
Projected score
CARK 29.9 · ETSU 38.3
CARK 30 · ETSU 37
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenETSU -11.5
1 → ETSU
CloseETSU -12.5
1 pt toward ETSU
Total
Open144.5
no move
Close144.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
CARK +525 · ETSU -750
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ETSU -11.5 · closed ETSU -12.5 · moved 1 toward ETSUmodel ETSU -14
model ETSU -14
Opened 144.5 · unchangedmodel 145.5
model 145.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CARKlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
| ETSUlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 4-1 80% | 2-3 40% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
C Arkansas
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg +5.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg −1.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
UNC
UNCL 54-94
−8.5
11
@
ARK
ARKL 56-93
−1.5
16
vs
SAM
SAML 77-84
−0.5
20
@
UNT
UNTL 56-74
−1.5
23
vs
EWU
EWUW 92-65
+31.5
25
vs
EIU
EIUW 81-60
+15.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@UNC
UNCL 54-94
−9.5
11
@ARK
ARKL 56-93
−9.5
16
vsSAM
SAML 77-84
+9.5
20
@UNT
UNTL 56-74
−4.5
23
vsEWU
EWUW 92-65
+2.5
25
vsEIU
EIUW 81-60
+1.5
over 3under 3avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
ETSU
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
4-1
80% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@
PRES
PRESL 64-68
−10.5
12
vs
NKU
NKUW 75-63
+5.5
15
@
UNA
UNAW 78-74
+5.5
21
vs
MORE
MOREW 77-62
+4.5
23
vs
ULM
ULMW 97-55
+22.5
covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@PRES
PRESL 64-68
−9.5
12
vsNKU
NKUW 75-63
−4.5
15
@UNA
UNAW 78-74
+6.5
21
vsMORE
MOREW 77-62
−5.5
23
vsULM
ULMW 97-55
+5.5
over 2under 3avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
C Arkansas
2-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · United Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs E Illinois81–60
- Wvs E Washington92–65
- L@ North Texas56–74
- Lvs Samford77–84
- L@ Arkansas56–93
4 days since their last game.
ETSU
4-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UL Monroe97–55
- Wvs Morehead St77–62
- W@ North Alabama78–74
- Wvs N Kentucky75–63
- L@ Presbyterian64–68
6 days since their last game.