Pepperdine Waves vs Fresno State Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 7:00 PM ETAcrisure Arena · Neutral site

#172PEPPPepperdine53final

Final

#174FRESFresno St76▲ winner

Closing lineFRES -2.5✓ FRES covered by 20.5

Closing total150.5Under by 21.5

Season records: Pepperdine and Fresno St
PEPP	This season	FRES
1-3	Record	4-2
2-2	ATS	4-2
2-2	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PEPP 76–77 FRES · ✓ FRES (53%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PEPP	35	18	53
FRES	27	49	76

1st half: PEPP 35, FRES 27 (PEPP by 8). The model had FRES by 0.3 and a total of 71.6 (actual 62).

Team stats

PEPP		FRES
20-64 31%	Field goals	31-64 48%
6-29 21%	3-pointers	9-30 30%
7-10 70%	Free throws	5-10 50%
42 17 off	Rebounds	32 7 off
14	Assists	20
3	Steals	7
6	Blocks	4
17	Turnovers	7
12	Fouls	16
26	Points in paint	44
4	Fast-break points	17

Players

PEPP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Styles Phipps G	32	5	8	5	2-10	0-3
Danilo Dozic C	30	8	3	1	4-9	0-3
Javon Cooley G	28	15	5	0	6-9	3-6
Aaron Clark G	22	5	1	3	1-11	1-4
Pavle Stosic F	21	2	5	2	1-2	0-1
Bench
Pasha Shemirani F	15	3	4	1	1-4	1-2
Luka Vudragovic G	14	0	2	0	0-3	0-2
David Mager G	13	2	2	0	1-6	0-3
Yonatan Levy F	9	4	3	1	2-4	0-2
Stefan Cicic C	8	5	1	0	2-4	1-2
Vladimir Sudar F	6	4	2	1	0-1	0-1
Nikola Radovanovic F	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Preston Phillips, Anto Balian, Ty Virgil, Yassine Gharram

FRES	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jake Heidbreder G	34	27	5	5	11-18	4-11
Zaon Collins G	34	10	1	9	4-7	1-3
DeShawn Gory F	27	11	7	2	5-8	1-2
Wilson Jacques C	21	6	6	2	3-5	0-0
Cameron Faas G	19	9	1	0	3-5	3-5
Bench
Gasper Kocevar C	16	2	2	0	1-3	0-0
DJ Stickman G	16	4	3	0	2-5	0-1
Jac Mani F	10	5	2	1	1-4	0-2
David Douglas Jr. G	5	0	1	0	0-2	0-1
Bastien Rieber G	4	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Makhan Diouf F	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Troy Jenkins G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Aram Vladimir Soqui Urbano G	4	0	0	1	0-3	0-2
Matteo Porto G	2	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Nathan Zulemie

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FRES -2.5	FRES -0.8	PEPP +1.7	L FRES covered
Total	150.5	152.8	Over 2.3	L Under
Projected score	—	PEPP 76 · FRES 76.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FRES -0.3	PEPP -8.0
1H total	71.6	62
1H projected score	PEPP 35.6 · FRES 36	PEPP 35 · FRES 27

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
PEPP WLWL	2-2	50%	—	1-2
FRES WLWWW	4-2	67%	—	2-2

Venue/role: PEPP neutral site, as underdog; FRES neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PEPP UOOU	2-2	50%	1-3
FRES OOUOO	4-2	67%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PEPPlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%
FRESlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

PEPP 0–1 FRESFRES leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · PEPP 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 23, 2021-22	FRES 70 vs PEPP 63	PEPP +6.5	FRES W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pepperdine

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@UCLA	L 63-74	+29.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 137
Nov 15	vsUNCO	L 81-88	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 18	vsNOLA	W 90-79	-5.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 21	vsSFA	L 60-63	+1.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

+18.5

UNCO

L 81-88

−5.5

NOLA

W 90-79

+5.5

SFA

L 60-63

−1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

−15.5

UNCO

L 81-88

+15.5

NOLA

W 90-79

+11.5

SFA

L 60-63

−25.5

over 2under 2avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Fresno St

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

U O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUPST	L 66-67	-9.5	L −10.5	164.5	U 133
Nov 8	vsLBSU	W 82-62	-6.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 144
Nov 12	vsUCSD	L 73-78	-1.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 151
Nov 15	vsUVU	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 18	vsSFA	W 80-78	+2.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 21	vsNOLA	W 85-76	-6.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UPST

L 66-67

−10.5

LBSU

W 82-62

+13.5

UCSD

L 73-78

−6.5

UVU

W 75-74

+5.5

SFA

W 80-78

+4.5

NOLA

W 85-76

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UPST

L 66-67

−31.5

LBSU

W 82-62

+1.5

UCSD

L 73-78

+2.5

UVU

W 75-74

−7.5

SFA

W 80-78

+11.5

NOLA

W 85-76

+6.5

over 4under 2avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pepperdine vs Fresno St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Pepperdine

Fresno St

Pepperdine

Fresno St