Bridgestone Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
GONZ -5.5✓ GONZ covered by 29.5
GONZ -5.5✓ GONZ covered by 29.5Closing total159.5Under by 6.5
| GONZ | This season | UK |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | Record | 5-3 |
| 6-2 | ATS | 4-4 |
| 3-5 | O/U | 4-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: GONZ 81–79 UK · ✓ GONZ (58%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GONZ | 43 | 51 | 94 |
| UK | 20 | 39 | 59 |
1st half: GONZ 43, UK 20 (GONZ by 23). The model had GONZ by 1.5 and a total of 75.1 (actual 63).
Team stats
| GONZ | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 36-63 57% | Field goals | 16-60 27% |
| 9-18 50% | 3-pointers | 7-34 21% |
| 13-16 81% | Free throws | 20-26 77% |
| 43 10 off | Rebounds | 31 12 off |
| 24 | Assists | 12 |
| 5 | Steals | 6 |
| 1 | Blocks | 0 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 46 | Points in paint | 18 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| GONZ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Huff F | 31 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 9-11 | 0-0 |
| Graham Ike F | 30 | 28 | 10 | 3 | 11-18 | 1-1 |
| Emmanuel Innocenti G | 23 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Mario Saint-Supery G | 21 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2-5 | 2-4 |
| Steele Venters G | 20 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Braeden Smith G | 19 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 4-7 | 1-2 |
| Adam Miller G | 17 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 4-6 | 3-5 |
| Jalen Warley G | 16 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Tyon Grant-Foster G | 16 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Ismaila Diagne C | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Davis Fogle G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Parker Jefferson, Alonzo Metz, Noah Haaland, Cade Orness, Joaquim ArauzMoore
| UK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Chandler G | 29 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 3-8 | 2-7 |
| Otega Oweh G | 29 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 3-7 | 1-3 |
| Denzel Aberdeen G | 25 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3-12 | 1-4 |
| Malachi Moreno C | 24 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Kam Williams G | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jasper Johnson G | 19 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-4 |
| Brandon Garrison F | 16 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Andrija Jelavic F | 15 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-6 |
| Trent Noah F | 14 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Jaland Lowe G | 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Braydon Hawthorne, Zach Tow, Reece Potter, Mo Dioubate, Walker Horn, Jayden Quaintance
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketGONZ -5.5
ModelGONZ -2.2
Model edgeUK +3.3
L GONZ covered
Total
Market159.5
Model160.5
Model edgeOver 1.0
L Under
Projected score
GONZ 81.3 · UK 79.2
GONZ 94 · UK 59
Win probability
GONZ 58%
1st half
Spread
GONZ -1.5
GONZ -23.0
Total
75.1
63 points
Projected score
GONZ 38.3 · UK 36.8
GONZ 43 · UK 20
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenGONZ -3.5
2 → GONZ
CloseGONZ -5.5
2 pts toward GONZ
Total
Open159.5
no move
Close159.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
GONZ -230 · UK +190
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened GONZ -3.5 · closed GONZ -5.5 · moved 2 toward GONZmodel GONZ -2
model GONZ -2
Opened 159.5 · unchangedmodel 160.5
model 160.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GONZlast 8 | 7-1 88% | 6-2 75% | 3-5 38% |
| UKlast 8 | 5-3 63% | 4-4 50% | 4-4 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
GONZ 2–1 UKGONZ leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · GONZ 2-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024-25 | UK 90 vs GONZ 89 | GONZ -6.5 | UK W |
| Feb 10, 2023-24 | GONZ 89 @ UK 85 | UK -4.5 | GONZ W |
| Nov 20, 2022-23 | UK 72 @ GONZ 88 | GONZ -3.5 | GONZ W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Gonzaga
8 games played
Straight up
7-1
88% wins
Against the spread
6-2
75% covers · avg +8.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-5
38% overs · avg −5.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs TXSO | W 98-43 | -29.5 | W +25.5 | 157.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 8 | vs OU | W 83-68 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 166.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 11 | vs CREI | W 90-63 | -12.5 | W +14.5 | 164.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 14 | @ ASU | W 77-65 | -13.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 17 | vs SUU | W 122-50 | -35.5 | W +36.5 | 160.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 24 | vs ALA | W 95-85 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 178.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 25 | vs MD | W 100-61 | -14.5 | W +24.5 | 157.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 26 | vs MICH | L 61-101 | -3.5 | L −43.5 | 165.5 | U 162 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsTXSO
TXSOW 98-43
+25.5
8
vsOU
OUW 83-68
+4.5
11
vsCREI
CREIW 90-63
+14.5
14
@ASU
ASUW 77-65
−1.5
17
vsSUU
SUUW 122-50
+36.5
24
vsALA
ALAW 95-85
+5.5
25
vsMD
MDW 100-61
+24.5
26
vsMICH
MICHL 61-101
−43.5
covered 6didn’t cover 2avg +8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsTXSO
TXSOW 98-43
−16.5
8
vsOU
OUW 83-68
−15.5
11
vsCREI
CREIW 90-63
−11.5
14
@ASU
ASUW 77-65
−16.5
17
vsSUU
SUUW 122-50
+11.5
24
vsALA
ALAW 95-85
+1.5
25
vsMD
MDW 100-61
+3.5
26
vsMICH
MICHL 61-101
−3.5
over 3under 5avg −5.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Kentucky
8 games played
Straight up
5-3
63% wins
Against the spread
4-4
50% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-4
50% overs · avg −8.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs NICH | W 77-51 | -31.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 7 | vs VAL | W 107-59 | -32.5 | W +15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 11 | @ LOU | L 88-96 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 14 | vs EIU | W 99-53 | -35.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 18 | vs MSU | L 66-83 | -3.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs L-MD | W 88-46 | -35.5 | W +6.5 | 159.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 26 | vs TNTC | W 104-54 | -37.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 2 | vs UNC | L 64-67 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−5.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+15.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
−2.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+10.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−20.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
+6.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+12.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−10.5
covered 4didn’t cover 4avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−29.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+8.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
+10.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+4.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−3.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
−25.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+0.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−32.5
over 4under 4avg −8.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Gonzaga
7-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Michigan61–101
- Wvs Maryland100–61
- Wvs Alabama95–85
- Wvs Southern Utah122–50
- W@ Arizona St77–65
A week or more of rest.
Kentucky
5-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs North Carolina64–67
- Wvs Tennessee Tech104–54
- Wvs Loyola MD88–46
- Lvs Michigan St66–83
- Wvs E Illinois99–53
3 days since their last game.