Addition Financial Arena · at UCF
Closing line
UCF -25.5✓ VMI covered by 0.5
UCF -25.5✓ VMI covered by 0.5Closing total159.5Under by 20.5
 VMI | This season | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 6-1 |
| 1-6 | ATS | 3-4 |
| 2-5 | O/U | 4-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: VMI 68–94 UCF · ✓ UCF (99%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VMI | 32 | 25 | 57 |
| UCF | 45 | 37 | 82 |
1st half: VMI 32, UCF 45 (UCF by 13). The model had UCF by 15.5 and a total of 75.8 (actual 77).
Team stats
| VMI | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 17-61 28% | Field goals | 32-80 40% |
| 8-34 24% | 3-pointers | 4-30 13% |
| 15-21 71% | Free throws | 14-17 82% |
| 38 16 off | Rebounds | 57 28 off |
| 6 | Assists | 19 |
| 6 | Steals | 6 |
| 1 | Blocks | 4 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 16 | Points in paint | 54 |
| 3 | Fast-break points | 21 |
Players
| VMI | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Johnson F | 30 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 1-11 | 1-7 |
| Linus Holmstrom G | 25 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3-10 | 1-8 |
| Tan Yildizoglu G | 24 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Mason Hagedorn F | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| AJ Clark G | 15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mario Tatum Jr. G | 30 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 6-12 | 3-6 |
| Cal Liston F | 18 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Walker Andrews G | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3-7 | 1-4 |
| Kaden Stuckey F | 13 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Jaylen Pazon G | 12 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Alexander Daushvili, Mason Lawson, Branford Edmonds III, Robert Peters, Rickey Bradley Jr.
| UCF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamichael Stillwell F | 29 | 21 | 14 | 5 | 8-12 | 0-0 |
| Themus Fulks G | 27 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 4-6 | 0-1 |
| Jordan Burks F | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 6-14 | 0-5 |
| Riley Kugel G | 16 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0-8 | 0-3 |
| John Bol C | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Carmelo Pacheco G | 22 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2-9 | 2-9 |
| Devan Cambridge F | 21 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 3-8 | 0-3 |
| Chris Johnson G | 19 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-7 | 1-4 |
| George Beale Jr. G | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-8 | 1-5 |
| Kris Parker G | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jeremy Foumena C | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Poohpha Warakulnukroh G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Zachary Johnson F | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tanner Jones, Elijah Hulsewe
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUCF -25.5
ModelUCF -26.0
Model edgeUCF +0.5
L VMI covered
Total
Market159.5
Model162.0
Model edgeOver 2.5
L Under
Projected score
VMI 68 · UCF 94
VMI 57 · UCF 82
Win probability
UCF 99%
1st half
Spread
UCF -15.5
UCF -13.0
Total
75.8
77 points
Projected score
VMI 30.1 · UCF 45.7
VMI 32 · UCF 45
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUCF -24.5
1 → UCF
CloseUCF -25.5
1 pt toward UCF
Total
Open159.5
no move
Close159.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
VMI +1600 · UCF -4000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UCF -24.5 · closed UCF -25.5 · moved 1 toward UCFmodel UCF -26
model UCF -26
Opened 159.5 · unchangedmodel 162
model 162
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VMIlast 7 | 1-6 14% | 1-6 14% | 2-5 29% |
| UCFlast 7 | 6-1 86% | 3-4 43% | 4-3 57% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
VMI
7 games played
Straight up
1-6
14% wins
Against the spread
1-6
14% covers · avg −11.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-5
29% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
@
USI
USIW 78-74
+1.5
9
@
MIZ
MIZL 68-106
−14.5
15
vs
JAX
JAXL 67-69
−0.5
19
@
RICH
RICHL 54-87
−18.5
22
@
STET
STETL 80-99
−21.5
24
vs
BUF
BUFL 70-78
−2.5
26
vs
BGSU
BGSUL 48-81
−21.5
covered 1didn’t cover 6avg −11.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
@USI
USIW 78-74
−1.5
9
@MIZ
MIZL 68-106
+12.5
15
vsJAX
JAXL 67-69
−15.5
19
@RICH
RICHL 54-87
−11.5
22
@STET
STETL 80-99
+30.5
24
vsBUF
BUFL 70-78
−2.5
26
vsBGSU
BGSUL 48-81
−19.5
over 2under 5avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
UCF
7 games played
Straight up
6-1
86% wins
Against the spread
3-4
43% covers · avg +4.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +8.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs HOF | W 82-78 | -8.5 | L −4.5 | 140.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 8 | vs VAN | L 93-105 | +10.5 | L −1.5 | 166.5 | O 198 |
| Nov 11 | vs FAMU | W 97-60 | -23.5 | W +13.5 | 169.5 | U 157 |
| Nov 14 | @ TA&M | W 86-74 | +10.5 | W +22.5 | 172.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 17 | vs OAK | W 87-83 | -13.5 | L −9.5 | 163.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 20 | vs PITT | W 77-67 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 25 | vs QUIN | W 102-91 | -13.5 | L −2.5 | 162.5 | O 193 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsHOF
HOFW 82-78
−4.5
8
vsVAN
VANL 93-105
−1.5
11
vsFAMU
FAMUW 97-60
+13.5
14
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-74
+22.5
17
vsOAK
OAKW 87-83
−9.5
20
vsPITT
PITTW 77-67
+11.5
25
vsQUIN
QUINW 102-91
−2.5
covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsHOF
HOFW 82-78
+19.5
8
vsVAN
VANL 93-105
+31.5
11
vsFAMU
FAMUW 97-60
−12.5
14
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-74
−12.5
17
vsOAK
OAKW 87-83
+6.5
20
vsPITT
PITTW 77-67
−5.5
25
vsQUIN
QUINW 102-91
+30.5
over 4under 3avg +8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
VMI
1-6 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Bowling Green48–81
- Lvs Buffalo70–78
- L@ Stetson80–99
- L@ Richmond54–87
- Lvs Jacksonville67–69
3 days since their last game.
UCF
6-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Quinnipiac102–91
- Wvs Pitt77–67
- Wvs Oakland87–83
- W@ Texas A&M86–74
- Wvs Florida A&M97–60
4 days since their last game.