Truist Arena · at N Kentucky
Closing line
NKU -3.5✓ NKU covered by 6.5
NKU -3.5✓ NKU covered by 6.5Closing total149.5Over by 26.5
 WOF | This season | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-2 |
| 2-3 | ATS | 2-2 |
| 4-1 | O/U | 2-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: WOF 73–76 NKU · ✓ NKU (60%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WOF | 43 | 40 | 83 |
| NKU | 45 | 48 | 93 |
1st half: WOF 43, NKU 45 (NKU by 2). The model had NKU by 1.6 and a total of 69.7 (actual 88).
Team stats
| WOF | NKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-54 41% | Field goals | 31-60 52% |
| 7-17 41% | 3-pointers | 5-13 38% |
| 32-43 74% | Free throws | 26-34 76% |
| 35 12 off | Rebounds | 37 10 off |
| 11 | Assists | 12 |
| 4 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 9 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 26 | Fouls | 28 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 52 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| WOF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nils Machowski G | 37 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 4-14 | 2-5 |
| Cayden Vasko G | 34 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2-9 | 0-4 |
| Kahmare Holmes G | 32 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 5-10 | 2-4 |
| Luke Flynn G | 20 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Rex Stirling F | 14 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brian Sumpter F | 22 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Chace Watley G | 20 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1-8 | 1-2 |
| Max Ortega G | 17 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 4-4 | 1-1 |
| Brendan Rigsbee G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Callum Richard, Cannon Richards, Jayden Tyler, Alessandro Perotti, Grayson Collins, Davis Miller
| NKU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LJ Wells F | 35 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 6-12 | 0-1 |
| Dan Gherezgher G | 35 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 8-19 | 3-7 |
| Tae Dozier G | 25 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Kael Robinson F | 21 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 4-7 | 0-1 |
| Ethan Elliott G | 19 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Donovan Oday G | 30 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 7-11 | 2-2 |
| Donovan Rakotonanahary F | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Shawn Nelson G | 14 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Addison Archer F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bryce Darbyshire G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ryan Tolliver, Juanma Ruiz, JJ Apathjang, Mitchel Minor
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketNKU -3.5
ModelNKU -3.0
Model edgeWOF +0.5
L NKU covered
Total
Market149.5
Model148.7
Model edgeUnder 0.8
L Over
Projected score
WOF 72.9 · NKU 75.8
WOF 83 · NKU 93
Win probability
NKU 60%
1st half
Spread
NKU -1.6
NKU -2.0
Total
69.7
88 points
Projected score
WOF 34 · NKU 35.6
WOF 43 · NKU 45
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNKU -4.5
1 → WOF
CloseNKU -3.5
1 pt toward WOF
Total
Open149.5
no move
Close149.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
WOF +150 · NKU -180
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NKU -4.5 · closed NKU -3.5 · moved 1 toward WOFmodel NKU -3
model NKU -3
Opened 149.5 · unchangedmodel 148.5
model 148.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WOFlast 5 | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% | 4-1 80% |
| NKUlast 4 | 2-2 50% | 2-2 50% | 2-2 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Wofford
5 games played
Straight up
3-2
60% wins
Against the spread
2-3
40% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-1
80% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
GMU
GMUL 46-70
−9.5
8
vs
MILW
MILWW 86-76
+13.5
11
@
AUB
AUBL 62-93
−3.5
15
@
BELL
BELLW 94-86
+4.5
19
vs
UNF
UNFW 86-78
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@GMU
GMUL 46-70
−24.5
8
vsMILW
MILWW 86-76
+11.5
11
@AUB
AUBL 62-93
+2.5
15
@BELL
BELLW 94-86
+23.5
19
vsUNF
UNFW 86-78
+2.5
over 4under 1avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
N Kentucky
4 games played
Straight up
2-2
50% wins
Against the spread
2-2
50% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-2
50% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@
TENN
TENNL 56-95
−11.5
12
@
ETSU
ETSUL 63-75
−5.5
20
@
CMU
CMUW 90-66
+28.5
24
vs
EKU
EKUW 82-71
+6.5
covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@TENN
TENNL 56-95
+13.5
12
@ETSU
ETSUL 63-75
−4.5
20
@CMU
CMUW 90-66
+9.5
24
vsEKU
EKUW 82-71
−3.5
over 2under 2avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Wofford
3-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs North Florida86–78
- W@ Bellarmine94–86
- L@ Auburn62–93
- Wvs Milwaukee86–76
- L@ George Mason46–70
A week or more of rest.
N Kentucky
2-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Horizon League
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs E Kentucky82–71
- W@ C Michigan90–66
- L@ ETSU63–75
- L@ Tennessee56–95
2 days since their last game.