Reynolds Center · at Tulsa
Closing line
TLSA -7.5✓ TLSA covered by 16.5
TLSA -7.5✓ TLSA covered by 16.5Closing total142.5Over by 29.5
 MOST | This season | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 5-1 |
| 1-3 | ATS | 5-1 |
| 1-3 | O/U | 3-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MOST 65–79 TLSA · ✓ TLSA (89%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MOST | 32 | 42 | 74 |
| TLSA | 48 | 50 | 98 |
1st half: MOST 32, TLSA 48 (TLSA by 16). The model had TLSA by 8.4 and a total of 67.4 (actual 80).
Team stats
| MOST | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-51 49% | Field goals | 30-63 48% |
| 13-26 50% | 3-pointers | 14-33 42% |
| 11-19 58% | Free throws | 24-30 80% |
| 26 7 off | Rebounds | 42 17 off |
| 12 | Assists | 19 |
| 5 | Steals | 8 |
| 2 | Blocks | 1 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 21 | Fouls | 14 |
| 18 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| MOST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaxton King G | 35 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| Trey Williams Jr. G | 33 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 4-9 | 4-8 |
| Kobi Williams G | 29 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 7-10 | 3-4 |
| Keith Palek III F | 26 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 5-13 | 1-4 |
| Cameron Boone F | 25 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Darrion Sutton F | 24 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2-5 | 2-3 |
| Melakih Cunningham G | 22 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Logan Epes G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Collin Clark, Ryder Cheesman, Antwan Burnett, Tyrique Brooks, Michael Osei-Bonsu, Amar Kuljuhovic
| TLSA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ade Popoola G | 26 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4-11 | 3-9 |
| Tylen Riley G | 24 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 3-9 | 1-2 |
| Miles Barnstable G | 22 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 3-7 | 2-5 |
| David Green F | 20 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 6-11 | 3-7 |
| Tyler Behrend F | 17 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Romad Dean F | 22 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Myles Rigsby G | 20 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Jaylen Lawal G | 16 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Ian Smikle F | 15 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| KJ Martin Jr. F | 12 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Leon Sifferlin G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Cal Conroy G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Carter Benton, Terrance Ford Jr., Doryan Onwuchekwa
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTLSA -7.5
ModelTLSA -14.3
Model edgeTLSA +6.8
W TLSA covered
Total
Market142.5
Model143.9
Model edgeOver 1.4
W Over
Projected score
MOST 64.8 · TLSA 79.1
MOST 74 · TLSA 98
Win probability
TLSA 89%
1st half
Spread
TLSA -8.4
TLSA -16.0
Total
67.4
80 points
Projected score
MOST 29.5 · TLSA 37.9
MOST 32 · TLSA 48
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTLSA -11.5
4 → MOST
CloseTLSA -7.5
4 pts toward MOST
Total
Open138.5
▲ 4
Close142.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
MOST +330 · TLSA -425
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TLSA -11.5 · closed TLSA -7.5 · moved 4 toward MOSTmodel TLSA -14.5
model TLSA -14.5
Opened 138.5 · closed 142.5 · moved 4 upmodel 144
model 144
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MOSTlast 4 | 1-3 25% | 1-3 25% | 1-3 25% |
| TLSAlast 6 | 5-1 83% | 5-1 83% | 3-3 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MOST 1–1 TLSASeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · MOST 1-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024-25 | TLSA 106 @ MOST 111 | MOST +3.5 | MOST W |
| Dec 16, 2023-24 | MOST 72 @ TLSA 73 | TLSA +0.5 | TLSA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Missouri St
4 games played
Straight up
1-3
25% wins
Against the spread
1-3
25% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-3
25% overs · avg −6.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
11
vs
ARST
ARSTL 85-86
−2.5
15
@
UTA
UTAL 49-67
−14.5
22
vs
RGV
RGVW 74-67
+3.5
24
vs
LIU
LIUL 61-75
−18.5
covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
11
vsARST
ARSTL 85-86
+18.5
15
@UTA
UTAL 49-67
−27.5
22
vsRGV
RGVW 74-67
−8.5
24
vsLIU
LIUL 61-75
−9.5
over 1under 3avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Tulsa
6 games played
Straight up
5-1
83% wins
Against the spread
5-1
83% covers · avg +9.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vs
URI
URIW 82-65
+20.5
12
@
ORU
ORUW 88-87
−4.5
17
@
KSU
KSUL 83-84
+11.5
21
vs
APSU
APSUW 84-75
+0.5
25
vs
SJSU
SJSUW 81-51
+24.5
26
vs
UNI
UNIW 63-60
+5.5
covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +9.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vsURI
URIW 82-65
−6.5
12
@ORU
ORUW 88-87
+14.5
17
@KSU
KSUL 83-84
+6.5
21
vsAPSU
APSUW 84-75
+10.5
25
vsSJSU
SJSUW 81-51
−17.5
26
vsUNI
UNIW 63-60
−14.5
over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Missouri St
1-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Long Island61–75
- Wvs UT Rio Grande74–67
- L@ UT Arlington49–67
- Lvs Arkansas St85–86
A week or more of rest.
Tulsa
5-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Northern Iowa63–60
- Wvs San José St81–51
- Wvs Austin Peay84–75
- L@ Kansas St83–84
- W@ Oral Roberts88–87
A week or more of rest.