Chicago State Cougars at Youngstown State Penguins: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 3:00 PM ETZidian Family Arena at Beeghly Center · at Youngstown St

#362CHSTChicago St64final

Final

Closing lineYSU -14.5✓ YSU covered by 8.5

Closing total146.5Over by 4.5

Season records: Chicago St and Youngstown St
CHST	This season	YSU
0-7	Record	2-4
3-4	ATS	3-3
5-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CHST 69–81 YSU · ✓ YSU (86%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CHST	26	38	64
YSU	46	41	87

1st half: CHST 26, YSU 46 (YSU by 20). The model had YSU by 7.3 and a total of 70.4 (actual 72).

Team stats

CHST		YSU
23-61 38%	Field goals	30-59 51%
4-13 31%	3-pointers	17-41 41%
14-17 82%	Free throws	10-14 71%
36 12 off	Rebounds	32 7 off
7	Assists	23
11	Steals	6
0	Blocks	2
12	Turnovers	13
18	Fouls	15
28	Points in paint	24
12	Fast-break points	22

Players

CHST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braelon Bush G	26	10	4	0	4-7	0-1
CJ Ray F	25	14	3	0	5-10	0-2
Marcus Tankersley G	22	2	1	0	1-5	0-0
Dailliss Cox F	18	2	2	0	1-4	0-2
Corey Sands G	9	0	3	1	0-1	0-1
Bench
Chauncey Gibson G	18	14	4	1	6-12	2-3
Lionel Larvadain G	18	4	4	0	2-7	0-1
Doyel Cockrill III G	15	11	2	5	2-4	2-3
Malek Robinson G	14	2	1	0	0-3	0-0
CJ Delancy F	13	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Daniel Zatsepin F	8	2	5	0	1-4	0-0
Deshawn Jean-Charles G	8	1	2	0	0-0	0-0
Dakari Thomas G	6	0	0	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Joseph Owens, Greg Spate, Stephen Byard, DaJuan Bates

YSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cris Carroll F	23	15	0	3	5-9	5-8
Jason Nelson G	22	9	2	5	4-6	1-3
Bryson Dawkins G	21	15	2	0	6-9	2-4
Imanuel Zorgvol F	13	6	4	0	2-2	0-0
Rich Rolf F	13	8	2	4	3-3	2-2
Bench
Tae Blackshear G	21	5	5	2	2-6	1-4
Cam Polak G	20	9	1	1	3-9	3-8
Drew King G	19	2	4	4	1-2	0-1
Vlad Salaridze F	16	13	5	2	3-4	3-4
Tyler Robinett F	10	2	2	1	0-1	0-1
Jaiden Haynes G	10	0	1	1	0-3	0-2
Shaheed Solebo G	8	1	0	0	0-2	0-2
Derrick Anderson G	4	2	0	0	1-3	0-2

Did not play: Markus Navarra, Connor Swider

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	YSU -14.5	YSU -12.4	CHST +2.1	L YSU covered
Total	146.5	150.4	Over 3.9	W Over
Projected score	—	CHST 69 · YSU 81.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	YSU -7.3	YSU -20.0
1H total	70.4	72
1H projected score	CHST 31.6 · YSU 38.9	CHST 26 · YSU 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHST LWWLL	3-4	43%	2-4	3-4
YSU WWLLW	3-3	50%	—	1-1

Venue/role: CHST away, as underdog; YSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHST OUUOO	5-2	71%	0-7
YSU OOOUU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHSTlast 7	0-7 0%	3-4 43%	5-2 71%
YSUlast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CHST 0–1 YSUYSU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · CHST 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 9, 2024-25	YSU 80 @ CHST 60	CHST +5.5	YSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Chicago St

7 games played

Straight up

0-7

0% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-70%

L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

L W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-271%

O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DEP	L 62-92	+24.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 154
Nov 6	@SLU	L 86-108	+30.5	W +8.5	155.5	O 194
Nov 11	@BTLR	L 66-98	+26.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 15	vsUIC	L 63-67	+9.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 130
Nov 18	@MINN	L 54-66	+27.5	W +15.5	144.5	U 120
Nov 20	@IOWA	L 54-93	+31.5	L −7.5	142.5	O 147
Nov 25	@PFW	L 77-90	+12.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEP

L 62-92

−5.5

SLU

L 86-108

+8.5

BTLR

L 66-98

−5.5

UIC

L 63-67

+5.5

MINN

L 54-66

+15.5

IOWA

L 54-93

−7.5

PFW

L 77-90

−0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEP

L 62-92

+10.5

SLU

L 86-108

+38.5

BTLR

L 66-98

+5.5

UIC

L 63-67

−26.5

MINN

L 54-66

−24.5

IOWA

L 54-93

+4.5

PFW

L 77-90

+17.5

over 5under 2avg +3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Youngstown St

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −4.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L W L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PITT	L 59-74	+14.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	@GCU	W 90-81	+15.5	W +24.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 15	@SBU	L 80-84	+9.5	W +5.5	146.5	O 164
Nov 19	@TOL	L 75-92	+1.5	L −15.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 23	vsUNCG	L 62-68	-5.5	L −11.5	152.5	U 130
Nov 24	vsGASO	W 67-61	-1.5	W +4.5	163.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PITT

L 59-74

−0.5

GCU

W 90-81

+24.5

SBU

L 80-84

+5.5

TOL

L 75-92

−15.5

UNCG

L 62-68

−11.5

GASO

W 67-61

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PITT

L 59-74

−12.5

GCU

W 90-81

+18.5

SBU

L 80-84

+17.5

TOL

L 75-92

+6.5

UNCG

L 62-68

−22.5

GASO

W 67-61

−35.5

over 3under 3avg −4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Chicago St @ Youngstown St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Chicago St

Youngstown St

Chicago St

Youngstown St