Hofstra Pride at Columbia Lions: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 7:00 PM ETLevien Gymnasium · at Columbia

#166HOFHofstra70final

Final

#170COLUColumbia72▲ winner

Closing lineCOLU -3.5✓ HOF covered by 1.5

Closing total144.5Under by 2.5

Season records: Hofstra and Columbia
HOF	This season	COLU
4-3	Record	6-1
6-1	ATS	7-0
5-2	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: HOF 70–74 COLU · ✓ COLU (63%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
HOF	32	38	70
COLU	42	30	72

1st half: HOF 32, COLU 42 (COLU by 10). The model had COLU by 2.1 and a total of 67.7 (actual 74).

Team stats

HOF		COLU
24-55 44%	Field goals	25-58 43%
7-17 41%	3-pointers	10-23 43%
15-22 68%	Free throws	12-16 75%
34 10 off	Rebounds	36 11 off
9	Assists	14
6	Steals	3
5	Blocks	4
10	Turnovers	12
14	Fouls	18
32	Points in paint	26
12	Fast-break points	1

Players

HOF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
German Plotnikov G	40	9	5	2	3-4	2-2
Preston Edmead G	37	16	3	1	4-13	2-7
Cruz Davis G	32	24	0	3	9-16	3-5
Victory Onuetu F	20	0	6	1	0-1	0-0
Biggie Patterson G	11	4	4	0	2-5	0-1
Bench
Joshua DeCady F	29	12	3	0	5-13	0-2
Silas Sunday F	20	5	9	2	1-1	0-0
A.J. Wills G	11	0	0	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Jaeden Roberts, Trey Boyd III, Brandon Morgan, Carlos Lopez, Joshua Aaron Reaves, Amir Williams, Alex Tsynkevich

COLU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kenny Noland G	36	19	3	2	6-12	5-8
Blair Thompson F	33	11	3	3	3-6	1-2
Mason Ritter F	27	7	5	5	3-9	0-3
Ryan Soulis F	27	14	10	3	6-8	2-4
Miles Franklin G	26	14	6	0	5-12	2-4
Bench
Connor Igoe F	18	3	4	1	0-2	0-1
Gerard O'Keefe G	17	2	0	0	1-4	0-0
Hampton Sanders G	8	0	2	0	0-2	0-1
Richard Nweke F	8	2	1	0	1-3	0-0

Did not play: Leland Coleman, Avery Brown, Dan Vessey, Edwin Bai, Nicolo Romanelli, Nigel Clarkson, Zine Eddine Bedri, Josiah Cunningham

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	COLU -3.5	COLU -3.7	COLU +0.2	L HOF covered
Total	144.5	144.6	Over 0.1	L Under
Projected score	—	HOF 70.4 · COLU 74.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COLU -2.1	COLU -10.0
1H total	67.7	74
1H projected score	HOF 32.8 · COLU 34.9	HOF 32 · COLU 42

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOF WWWWW	6-1	86%	4-1	2-0
COLU WWWWW	7-0	100%	3-0	6-0

Venue/role: HOF away, as underdog; COLU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOF OOUOU	5-2	71%	4-3
COLU OUOOO	4-3	57%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOFlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%
COLUlast 7	6-1 86%	7-0 100%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hofstra

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +4.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-186%

W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-271%

O O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UCF	L 78-82	+8.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 160
Nov 7	@IONA	L 73-81	-1.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 154
Nov 14	@BUCK	W 83-77	-4.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 19	@TEM	L 76-81	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 157
Nov 28	vsLAS	W 63-58	-3.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 121
Nov 29	vsMRMK	W 78-58	-5.5	W +14.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 30	@PENN	W 77-60	-1.5	W +15.5	149.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCF

L 78-82

+4.5

IONA

L 73-81

−9.5

BUCK

W 83-77

+1.5

TEM

L 76-81

+0.5

LAS

W 63-58

+1.5

MRMK

W 78-58

+14.5

PENN

W 77-60

+15.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCF

L 78-82

+19.5

IONA

L 73-81

+9.5

BUCK

W 83-77

+20.5

TEM

L 76-81

+11.5

LAS

W 63-58

−17.5

MRMK

W 78-58

+0.5

PENN

W 77-60

−12.5

over 5under 2avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Columbia

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

7-0

100% covers · avg +10.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-0100%

W W W W W W W

7 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@NHVN	W 71-53	-7.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 124
Nov 10	@CONN	L 62-89	+32.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 13	vsUML	W 86-72	-13.5	W +0.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 18	vsBU	W 54-49	-4.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 103
Nov 21	@LEH	W 82-67	-2.5	W +12.5	143.5	O 149
Nov 23	vsLONG	W 95-70	-3.5	W +21.5	153.5	O 165
Nov 26	@FAIR	W 106-77	-3.5	W +25.5	150.5	O 183

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NHVN

W 71-53

+10.5

CONN

L 62-89

+5.5

UML

W 86-72

+0.5

W 54-49

+0.5

LEH

W 82-67

+12.5

LONG

W 95-70

+21.5

FAIR

W 106-77

+25.5

covered 7didn’t cover 0avg +10.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NHVN

W 71-53

−24.5

CONN

L 62-89

−4.5

UML

W 86-72

+1.5

W 54-49

−41.5

LEH

W 82-67

+5.5

LONG

W 95-70

+11.5

FAIR

W 106-77

+32.5

over 4under 3avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hofstra @ Columbia

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Hofstra

Columbia

Hofstra

Columbia