Murray State Racers vs George Washington Revolutionaries: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 7:30 PM ETJohn Gray Gymnasium · Neutral site

#132MURMurray St96▲ winner

Final

Closing lineGW -7.5✓ MUR covered by 8.5

Closing total167.5Over by 23.5

Season records: Murray St and G Washington
MUR	This season	GW
4-3	Record	6-1
4-3	ATS	5-2
6-1	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MUR 79–87 GW · ✗ GW (76%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MUR	45	51	96
GW	43	52	95

1st half: MUR 45, GW 43 (MUR by 2). The model had GW by 4.7 and a total of 77.6 (actual 88).

Team stats

MUR		GW
36-68 53%	Field goals	31-61 51%
10-25 40%	3-pointers	7-19 37%
14-19 74%	Free throws	26-33 79%
40 16 off	Rebounds	30 10 off
15	Assists	11
5	Steals	5
2	Blocks	2
10	Turnovers	7
24	Fouls	20
40	Points in paint	48
9	Fast-break points	17

Players

MUR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mason Miller F	29	6	5	0	2-4	2-4
Layne Taylor G	25	6	4	4	3-10	0-6
Javon Jackson G	23	24	1	2	10-20	2-4
Fredrick King C	22	10	9	1	4-7	0-0
JJ Traynor F	15	5	5	0	2-4	0-1
Bench
Roman Domon G	32	15	8	3	5-11	1-4
Mathis Courbon G	16	10	1	1	3-3	2-2
KJ Tenner G	15	8	1	2	3-4	0-0
Brayden Shorter G	11	9	2	1	3-4	2-3
Dylan Anderson F	8	3	0	1	1-1	1-1
Brock Vice F	4	0	2	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Dillon Butler, Lachlan Crate, Tristian Ford, Ben Shtolzberg

GW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Rafael Castro F	30	26	11	4	7-14	0-0
Trey Autry G	28	11	1	3	4-6	3-5
Christian Jones G	27	14	0	0	6-9	1-3
Bubu Benjamin G	24	10	2	2	3-7	0-2
Tyrone Marshall Jr. F	7	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Garrett Johnson F	30	17	3	0	6-10	2-4
Jean Aranguren G	25	11	7	1	4-7	0-0
Tre Dinkins G	19	6	2	0	1-3	1-3
Luke Hunger F	10	0	0	1	0-4	0-2

Did not play: Mohamed Binzagr, Jalen Rougier-Roane, Trey Moss, Amir Arrington, Ty Bevins, Vincent Chaudhri

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	GW -7.5	GW -8.0	GW +0.5	L MUR covered
Total	167.5	165.7	Under 1.8	L Over
Projected score	—	MUR 78.8 · GW 86.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GW -4.7	MUR -2.0
1H total	77.6	88
1H projected score	MUR 36.5 · GW 41.1	MUR 45 · GW 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MUR LWWLL	4-3	57%	1-2	0-2
GW WWWLW	5-2	71%	2-1	4-2

Venue/role: MUR neutral site, as underdog; GW neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MUR OOOOU	6-1	86%	4-3
GW OOUOO	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MURlast 7	4-3 57%	4-3 57%	6-1 86%
GWlast 7	6-1 86%	5-2 71%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Murray St

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-1

86% overs · avg +8.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-186%

O O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsOMA	W 85-77	-5.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 162
Nov 7	vsMVSU	W 108-60	-38.5	W +9.5	159.5	O 168
Nov 11	@SMU	L 91-102	+10.5	L −0.5	164.5	O 193
Nov 15	vsNICH	W 99-79	-14.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 18	vsLR	W 89-68	-13.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 23	vsMTSU	L 87-90	-6.5	L −9.5	161.5	O 177
Nov 24	vsMCN	L 60-73	+2.5	L −10.5	158.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OMA

W 85-77

+2.5

MVSU

W 108-60

+9.5

SMU

L 91-102

−0.5

NICH

W 99-79

+5.5

W 89-68

+7.5

MTSU

L 87-90

−9.5

MCN

L 60-73

−10.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OMA

W 85-77

+8.5

MVSU

W 108-60

+8.5

SMU

L 91-102

+28.5

NICH

W 99-79

+20.5

W 89-68

+3.5

MTSU

L 87-90

+15.5

MCN

L 60-73

−25.5

over 6under 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

G Washington

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +5.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +7.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-271%

L W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

U O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsME	W 67-47	-20.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 114
Nov 8	vsUSF	W 99-95	+1.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 194
Nov 12	vsAMER	W 107-67	-17.5	W +22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsODU	W 96-73	-15.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 169
Nov 19	vsUMBC	W 89-52	-22.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 23	vsMCN	L 86-92	-5.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsMTSU	W 92-79	-9.5	W +3.5	158.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 67-47

−0.5

USF

W 99-95

+5.5

AMER

W 107-67

+22.5

ODU

W 96-73

+7.5

UMBC

W 89-52

+14.5

MCN

L 86-92

−11.5

MTSU

W 92-79

+3.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +5.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 67-47

−29.5

USF

W 99-95

+34.5

AMER

W 107-67

+22.5

ODU

W 96-73

+13.5

UMBC

W 89-52

−19.5

MCN

L 86-92

+20.5

MTSU

W 92-79

+12.5

over 5under 2avg +7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Murray St vs G Washington

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Murray St

G Washington

Murray St

G Washington