UCLA Bruins vs California Golden Bears: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 10:00 PM ETChase Center · Neutral site

#26UCLAUCLA AP #1872final

Final

#92CALCalifornia80▲ winner

Closing lineUCLA -7.5✓ CAL covered by 15.5

Closing total143.5Over by 8.5

Season records: UCLA and California
UCLA	This season	CAL
5-1	Record	5-1
2-4	ATS	4-2
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UCLA 78–69 CAL · ✗ UCLA (77%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UCLA	41	31	72
CAL	36	44	80

1st half: UCLA 41, CAL 36 (UCLA by 5). The model had UCLA by 5.3 and a total of 69.0 (actual 77).

Team stats

UCLA		CAL
26-64 41%	Field goals	26-58 45%
7-22 32%	3-pointers	11-22 50%
13-23 57%	Free throws	17-22 77%
41 14 off	Rebounds	35 7 off
17	Assists	15
2	Steals	7
5	Blocks	4
11	Turnovers	8
19	Fouls	23
32	Points in paint	24
7	Fast-break points	17

Players

UCLA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Eric Dailey Jr. F	35	17	7	3	7-15	3-7
Xavier Booker C	32	10	4	0	4-9	0-0
Donovan Dent G	31	3	4	7	1-8	0-2
Skyy Clark G	25	7	5	1	2-8	1-4
Brandon Williams F	11	6	2	1	3-5	0-1
Bench
Jamar Brown G	29	9	6	1	3-7	2-5
Trent Perry G	25	17	3	3	5-9	1-2
Steven Jamerson II F	9	3	3	1	1-1	0-0
Eric Freeny G	3	0	0	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Markell Alston, Anthony Peoples Jr., Christian Horry, Jack Seidler, Tyler Bilodeau, Evan Manjikian

CAL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chris Bell F	31	22	6	0	6-11	5-7
Justin Pippen G	29	13	3	3	4-10	3-6
John Camden F	25	5	3	1	2-5	1-2
Dai Dai Ames G	24	14	0	0	5-12	2-4
Lee Dort F	16	3	3	0	1-2	0-0
Bench
Milos Ilic C	23	1	4	4	0-0	0-0
Rytis Petraitis F	23	12	7	1	4-6	0-0
DeJuan Campbell G	16	4	2	2	2-5	0-1
Semetri Carr G	13	6	3	4	2-7	0-2

Did not play: Nolan Dorsey, Luke Butler, Jorell Clark, BJ Fisher, Mantas Kocanas, Stephon Marbury II, Jovani Ruff, Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut, Sammie Yeanay

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UCLA -7.5	UCLA -8.4	UCLA +0.9	L CAL covered
Total	143.5	147.2	Over 3.7	W Over
Projected score	—	UCLA 77.8 · CAL 69.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCLA -5.3	UCLA -5.0
1H total	69.0	77
1H projected score	UCLA 37.1 · CAL 31.9	UCLA 41 · CAL 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UCLA LLLWW	2-4	33%	0-1	2-3
CAL LWWLW	4-2	67%	—	1-0

Venue/role: UCLA neutral site, as favorite; CAL neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA UUUUO	2-4	33%	5-1
CAL UUOUO	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLAlast 6	5-1 83%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%
CALlast 6	5-1 83%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UCLA 4–1 CALUCLA leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · UCLA 3-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 10, 2023-24	UCLA 61 @ CAL 60	CAL -0.5	UCLA W
Jan 6, 2023-24	CAL 66 @ UCLA 57	UCLA -6.5	CAL W
Feb 18, 2022-23	CAL 43 @ UCLA 78	UCLA -24.5	UCLA W
Jan 27, 2021-22	CAL 57 @ UCLA 81	UCLA -13	UCLA W
Jan 8, 2021-22	UCLA 60 @ CAL 52	CAL +8.5	CAL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UCLA

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsEWU	W 80-74	-29.5	L −23.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 7	vsPEPP	W 74-63	-29.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 137
Nov 10	vsWGA	W 83-62	-30.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 145
Nov 14	vsARIZ	L 65-69	+1.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 134
Nov 18	vsSAC	W 79-48	-27.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 21	vsPRES	W 86-46	-25.5	W +14.5	131.5	O 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EWU

W 80-74

−23.5

PEPP

W 74-63

−18.5

WGA

W 83-62

−9.5

ARIZ

L 65-69

−2.5

SAC

W 79-48

+3.5

PRES

W 86-46

+14.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EWU

W 80-74

+4.5

PEPP

W 74-63

−15.5

WGA

W 83-62

−1.5

ARIZ

L 65-69

−19.5

SAC

W 79-48

−19.5

PRES

W 86-46

+0.5

over 2under 4avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

California

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

W L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCSUB	W 87-60	-15.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 147
Nov 6	vsWRST	W 77-67	-14.5	L −4.5	148.5	U 144
Nov 10	vsCSUF	W 93-65	-22.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 158
Nov 13	@KSU	L 96-99	+6.5	W +3.5	164.5	O 195
Nov 18	vsPRES	W 67-57	-10.5	L −0.5	124.5	U 124
Nov 21	vsSAC	W 91-67	-21.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSUB

W 87-60

+11.5

WRST

W 77-67

−4.5

CSUF

W 93-65

+5.5

KSU

L 96-99

+3.5

PRES

W 67-57

−0.5

SAC

W 91-67

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSUB

W 87-60

−0.5

WRST

W 77-67

−4.5

CSUF

W 93-65

−4.5

KSU

L 96-99

+30.5

PRES

W 67-57

−0.5

SAC

W 91-67

+3.5

over 2under 4avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UCLA vs California

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UCLA

California

UCLA

California