Niagara Purple Eagles at Canisius Golden Griffins: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 14, 7:00 PM ETKoessler Athletic Center · at Canisius · Conference game

#346NIANiagara59▲ winner

Final

#359CANCanisius54final

Closing lineCAN -2.5✓ NIA covered by 7.5

Closing total126.5Under by 13.5

Season records: Niagara and Canisius
NIA	This season	CAN
3-12	Record	7-9
4-11	ATS	8-8
7-8	O/U	5-11

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NIA 63–65 CAN · ✗ CAN (57%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NIA	34	25	59
CAN	28	26	54

1st half: NIA 34, CAN 28 (NIA by 6). The model had CAN by 1.0 and a total of 60.3 (actual 62).

Team stats

NIA		CAN
20-48 42%	Field goals	18-55 33%
5-15 33%	3-pointers	6-28 21%
14-18 78%	Free throws	12-16 75%
31 8 off	Rebounds	39 16 off
10	Assists	5
3	Steals	6
4	Blocks	3
10	Turnovers	11
17	Fouls	21
28	Points in paint	22
2	Fast-break points	4

Players

NIA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Justin Page G	34	19	0	2	7-14	1-3
Justin Hawkins F	24	3	7	2	1-6	1-1
Kabeya Tshibangu C	24	2	3	0	1-2	0-0
Reggie Prudhomme G	20	1	2	2	0-4	0-2
Vice Zanki F	18	7	1	0	3-5	1-2
Bench
Trenton Walters G	27	9	1	3	2-7	1-5
Landon Williams G	27	7	4	1	3-4	1-1
Will Shortt F	13	6	4	0	1-3	0-0
Josiah Sabino G	13	5	4	0	2-3	0-1

Did not play: Brian Griffith, Gael Dalmau, Drew Larson, AJ McBride

CAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kahlil Singleton G	40	11	3	0	4-9	3-7
Mike Evbagharu G	33	12	6	1	4-10	1-5
Myles Wilmoth F	33	1	6	0	0-2	0-2
Bryan Ndjonga F	32	13	11	1	5-13	1-5
Marcus Niblack G	29	10	3	2	3-13	0-6
Bench
Anthony Benard G	11	4	1	0	1-3	1-2
Brendan Oliver F	9	1	3	0	0-1	0-0
Evan van der Plas F	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
King Ijeoma F	4	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Max Jusianiec G	3	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Chris Kumu G	2	0	0	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Andreo Ash, Zach Christian, Javantae Edwards, Trevor Augustine, Nicco DiGiulio

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CAN -2.5	CAN -1.9	NIA +0.6	W NIA covered
Total	126.5	128.5	Over 2.0	L Under
Projected score	—	NIA 63.3 · CAN 65.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CAN -1.0	NIA -6.0
1H total	60.3	62
1H projected score	NIA 29.6 · CAN 30.6	NIA 34 · CAN 28

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIA WWLLL	4-11	27%	2-8	3-11
CAN LWWWL	8-8	50%	4-2	1-1

Venue/role: NIA away, as underdog; CAN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIA UUOUO	7-8	47%	3-12
CAN OOOUU	5-11	31%	7-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIA	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
CAN	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

NIA 6–2 CANNIA leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · NIA has won the last 2 meetings · NIA 3-4-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 12, 2024-25	CAN 60 @ NIA 71	NIA -8.5	NIA W
Jan 31, 2024-25	NIA 64 @ CAN 63	CAN +3.5	CAN W
Feb 23, 2023-24	NIA 59 @ CAN 69	CAN +1.5	CAN W
Feb 6, 2023-24	CAN 64 @ NIA 69	NIA -5	P
Mar 4, 2022-23	NIA 68 @ CAN 81	CAN -2.5	CAN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Niagara

15 games played

Straight up

3-12

20% wins

Against the spread

4-11

27% covers · avg −4.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-8

47% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1220%

L W W L L L L L L L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-1127%

L W W L L L L L L L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-847%

O U U O U O U O U O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DUQ	L 63-83	+17.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 8	@BING	W 67-59	+2.5	W +10.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 10	vsDSU	W 68-57	-5.5	W +5.5	137.5	U 125
Nov 17	@LEM	L 68-74	+2.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 142
Nov 21	@DUKE	L 42-100	+39.5	L −18.5	146.5	U 142
Nov 22	vsHOW	L 70-80	+4.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 150
Nov 29	vsDETM	L 66-70	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 136
Dec 5	@SIE	L 54-83	+12.5	L −16.5	129.5	O 137
Dec 7	@SPU	L 43-71	+5.5	L −22.5	131.5	U 114
Dec 13	@MORG	L 73-81	+1.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 15	@VCU	L 58-84	+30.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 142
Jan 2	vsSHU	W 64-61	+1.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 125
Jan 4	vsFAIR	L 75-83	+3.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 158
Jan 9	@IONA	L 53-71	+10.5	L −7.5	140.5	U 124
Jan 11	@MAN	L 70-79	+5.5	L −3.5	140.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DUQ

L 63-83

−2.5

BING

W 67-59

+10.5

DSU

W 68-57

+5.5

LEM

L 68-74

−3.5

DUKE

L 42-100

−18.5

HOW

L 70-80

−5.5

DETM

L 66-70

−2.5

SIE

L 54-83

−16.5

SPU

L 43-71

−22.5

MORG

L 73-81

−6.5

VCU

L 58-84

+4.5

SHU

W 64-61

+4.5

FAIR

L 75-83

−4.5

IONA

L 53-71

−7.5

MAN

L 70-79

−3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 11avg −4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DUQ

L 63-83

+6.5

BING

W 67-59

−12.5

DSU

W 68-57

−12.5

LEM

L 68-74

+3.5

DUKE

L 42-100

−4.5

HOW

L 70-80

+11.5

DETM

L 66-70

−6.5

SIE

L 54-83

+7.5

SPU

L 43-71

−17.5

MORG

L 73-81

+13.5

VCU

L 58-84

−1.5

SHU

W 64-61

−14.5

FAIR

L 75-83

+19.5

IONA

L 53-71

−16.5

MAN

L 70-79

+8.5

over 7under 8avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Canisius

16 games played

Straight up

7-9

44% wins

Against the spread

8-8

50% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-11

31% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-944%

L L W L W W L L L W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

8-850%

L W W L L W L L L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-1131%

U O U U U O U U U U U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DAY	L 48-88	+25.5	L −14.5	142.5	U 136
Nov 8	@SBU	L 70-89	+21.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsMERC	W 58-55	+1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 113
Nov 17	@HPU	L 50-93	+23.5	L −19.5	152.5	U 143
Nov 21	vsUMES	W 60-57	-3.5	L −0.5	128.5	U 117
Nov 23	vsBING	W 75-66	-2.5	W +6.5	129.5	O 141
Nov 29	vsBUF	L 53-71	+9.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 124
Dec 5	@SPU	L 57-69	+9.5	L −2.5	129.5	U 126
Dec 7	@SIE	L 52-74	+17.5	L −4.5	131.5	U 126
Dec 13	@ME	W 70-43	+6.5	W +33.5	127.5	U 113
Dec 16	@URI	L 45-62	+21.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 107
Dec 22	@DUQ	L 59-103	+19.5	L −24.5	143.5	O 162
Jan 2	vsFAIR	W 85-81	+6.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 166
Jan 4	vsSHU	W 82-78	+5.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 160
Jan 9	@MAN	W 70-64	+7.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 134
Jan 11	@IONA	L 48-74	+11.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAY

L 48-88

−14.5

SBU

L 70-89

+2.5

MERC

W 58-55

+4.5

HPU

L 50-93

−19.5

UMES

W 60-57

−0.5

BING

W 75-66

+6.5

BUF

L 53-71

−8.5

SPU

L 57-69

−2.5

SIE

L 52-74

−4.5

W 70-43

+33.5

URI

L 45-62

+4.5

DUQ

L 59-103

−24.5

FAIR

W 85-81

+10.5

SHU

W 82-78

+9.5

MAN

W 70-64

+13.5

IONA

L 48-74

−14.5

covered 8didn’t cover 8avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAY

L 48-88

−6.5

SBU

L 70-89

+22.5

MERC

W 58-55

−22.5

HPU

L 50-93

−9.5

UMES

W 60-57

−11.5

BING

W 75-66

+11.5

BUF

L 53-71

−15.5

SPU

L 57-69

−3.5

SIE

L 52-74

−5.5

W 70-43

−14.5

URI

L 45-62

−31.5

DUQ

L 59-103

+18.5

FAIR

W 85-81

+25.5

SHU

W 82-78

+18.5

MAN

W 70-64

−11.5

IONA

L 48-74

−19.5

over 5under 11avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Niagara @ Canisius

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Niagara

Canisius

Niagara

Canisius