Fairfield Stags at Canisius Golden Griffins: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 2, 4:00 PM ETKoessler Athletic Center · at Canisius · Conference game

#239FAIRFairfield81final

Final

#359CANCanisius85▲ winner

Closing lineFAIR -6.5✓ CAN covered by 10.5

Closing total140.5Over by 25.5

Season records: Fairfield and Canisius
FAIR	This season	CAN
7-6	Record	4-8
5-8	ATS	5-7
6-7	O/U	3-9

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: FAIR 72–66 CAN · ✗ FAIR (69%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
FAIR	37	44	81
CAN	39	46	85

1st half: FAIR 37, CAN 39 (CAN by 2). The model had FAIR by 3.5 and a total of 64.8 (actual 76).

Team stats

FAIR		CAN
28-66 42%	Field goals	25-57 44%
8-23 35%	3-pointers	15-28 54%
17-23 74%	Free throws	20-27 74%
42 17 off	Rebounds	35 10 off
15	Assists	22
2	Steals	5
2	Blocks	3
8	Turnovers	6
19	Fouls	21
38	Points in paint	20
4	Fast-break points	8

Players

FAIR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Declan Wucherpfennig G	35	20	4	2	9-14	2-2
Brandon Benjamin F	33	19	13	2	8-13	0-0
Braden Sparks G	25	13	1	1	2-11	2-8
Halon Rawlins G	22	4	7	2	2-8	0-2
Tony Williams G	14	5	2	0	2-3	1-1
Bench
Eric Mejia G	26	7	4	6	1-5	0-1
Cam Estevez G	18	10	2	2	3-6	2-4
Deuce Turner G	12	3	2	0	1-4	1-3
Isaac Munkadi F	7	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Ryan Zan F	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Nasir Rodriguez G	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Noah Best, Joe Ganton, Michael Rogan, Matt Curtis, Tanner Ostop, Aidan May, Luke Davidson, Peyton Smith

CAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kahlil Singleton G	40	37	5	0	11-16	9-12
Bryan Ndjonga F	36	18	5	3	4-9	2-4
Myles Wilmoth F	34	13	10	3	5-7	1-3
Mike Evbagharu G	33	9	5	6	3-7	1-2
Marcus Niblack G	24	0	4	5	0-7	0-2
Bench
Anthony Benard G	13	5	2	4	1-4	1-1
Brendan Oliver F	9	3	1	0	1-3	1-2
Max Jusianiec G	6	0	0	1	0-2	0-2
Chris Kumu G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
King Ijeoma F	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Nicco DiGiulio, Andreo Ash, Zach Christian, Javantae Edwards, Trevor Augustine, Evan van der Plas

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FAIR -6.5	FAIR -5.5	CAN +1.0	W CAN covered
Total	140.5	138.3	Under 2.3	L Over
Projected score	—	FAIR 71.9 · CAN 66.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FAIR -3.5	CAN -2.0
1H total	64.8	76
1H projected score	FAIR 34.1 · CAN 30.7	FAIR 37 · CAN 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FAIR LLWWL	5-8	38%	4-3	2-5
CAN LLWWL	5-7	42%	2-2	4-6

Venue/role: FAIR away, as favorite; CAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
FAIR UUUOU	6-7	46%	7-6
CAN UUUUO	3-9	25%	4-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FAIR	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
CAN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

FAIR 6–2 CANFAIR leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · FAIR 5-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 18, 2024-25	CAN 78 @ FAIR 67	FAIR -9.5	CAN W
Mar 7, 2023-24	CAN 62 @ FAIR 74	FAIR -8.5	FAIR W
Jan 15, 2023-24	FAIR 88 @ CAN 63	CAN -1.5	FAIR W
Feb 26, 2022-23	FAIR 51 @ CAN 64	CAN -2.5	CAN W
Jan 20, 2022-23	CAN 58 @ FAIR 67	FAIR -4.5	FAIR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Fairfield

13 games played

Straight up

7-6

54% wins

Against the spread

5-8

38% covers · avg −0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-7

46% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-654%

L W L W W W L W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-838%

W W L L L W L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-746%

U U O O O O O U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PSU	L 68-76	+15.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NJIT	W 74-53	-6.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 10	@HALL	L 59-82	+14.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 14	vsSTO	W 73-71	-6.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 144
Nov 16	vsL-MD	W 85-82	-5.5	L −2.5	135.5	O 167
Nov 22	@LEM	W 97-83	-1.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 26	vsCOLU	L 77-106	+3.5	L −25.5	150.5	O 183
Nov 30	vsUNH	W 72-68	-9.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 140
Dec 5	@MAN	L 66-70	-1.5	L −5.5	155.5	U 136
Dec 7	@MRMK	L 63-74	+3.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 14	vsMONM	W 73-65	+2.5	W +10.5	143.5	U 138
Dec 18	@CCSU	W 84-70	+6.5	W +20.5	143.5	O 154
Dec 29	vsSPU	L 66-70	-2.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PSU

L 68-76

+7.5

NJIT

W 74-53

+14.5

HALL

L 59-82

−8.5

STO

W 73-71

−4.5

L-MD

W 85-82

−2.5

LEM

W 97-83

+12.5

COLU

L 77-106

−25.5

UNH

W 72-68

−5.5

MAN

L 66-70

−5.5

MRMK

L 63-74

−7.5

MONM

W 73-65

+10.5

CCSU

W 84-70

+20.5

SPU

L 66-70

−6.5

covered 5didn’t cover 8avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PSU

L 68-76

−7.5

NJIT

W 74-53

−18.5

HALL

L 59-82

+3.5

STO

W 73-71

+0.5

L-MD

W 85-82

+31.5

LEM

W 97-83

+34.5

COLU

L 77-106

+32.5

UNH

W 72-68

−7.5

MAN

L 66-70

−19.5

MRMK

L 63-74

−7.5

MONM

W 73-65

−5.5

CCSU

W 84-70

+10.5

SPU

L 66-70

−4.5

over 6under 7avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Canisius

12 games played

Straight up

4-8

33% wins

Against the spread

5-7

42% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-9

25% overs · avg −5.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-833%

L L W L W W L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-742%

L W W L L W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-925%

U O U U U O U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DAY	L 48-88	+25.5	L −14.5	142.5	U 136
Nov 8	@SBU	L 70-89	+21.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsMERC	W 58-55	+1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 113
Nov 17	@HPU	L 50-93	+23.5	L −19.5	152.5	U 143
Nov 21	vsUMES	W 60-57	-3.5	L −0.5	128.5	U 117
Nov 23	vsBING	W 75-66	-2.5	W +6.5	129.5	O 141
Nov 29	vsBUF	L 53-71	+9.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 124
Dec 5	@SPU	L 57-69	+9.5	L −2.5	129.5	U 126
Dec 7	@SIE	L 52-74	+17.5	L −4.5	131.5	U 126
Dec 13	@ME	W 70-43	+6.5	W +33.5	127.5	U 113
Dec 16	@URI	L 45-62	+21.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 107
Dec 22	@DUQ	L 59-103	+19.5	L −24.5	143.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAY

L 48-88

−14.5

SBU

L 70-89

+2.5

MERC

W 58-55

+4.5

HPU

L 50-93

−19.5

UMES

W 60-57

−0.5

BING

W 75-66

+6.5

BUF

L 53-71

−8.5

SPU

L 57-69

−2.5

SIE

L 52-74

−4.5

W 70-43

+33.5

URI

L 45-62

+4.5

DUQ

L 59-103

−24.5

covered 5didn’t cover 7avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAY

L 48-88

−6.5

SBU

L 70-89

+22.5

MERC

W 58-55

−22.5

HPU

L 50-93

−9.5

UMES

W 60-57

−11.5

BING

W 75-66

+11.5

BUF

L 53-71

−15.5

SPU

L 57-69

−3.5

SIE

L 52-74

−5.5

W 70-43

−14.5

URI

L 45-62

−31.5

DUQ

L 59-103

+18.5

over 3under 9avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Fairfield @ Canisius

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Fairfield

Canisius

Fairfield

Canisius