Fairleigh Dickinson Knights at Saint Francis Red Wolves: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 4, 4:00 PM ETDeGol Arena · at Saint Francis Red Wolves · Conference game

#356FDUFDU82final

Final

#88SFPASaint Francis Red Wolves85▲ winner

Closing lineFDU -2.5✓ SFPA covered by 5.5

Closing total143.5Over by 23.5

Season records: FDU and Saint Francis Red Wolves
FDU	This season	SFPA
1-10	Record	0-12
3-8	ATS	4-8
4-7	O/U	6-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: FDU 74–72 SFPA · ✗ FDU (59%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
FDU	46	36	82
SFPA	44	41	85

1st half: FDU 46, SFPA 44 (FDU by 2). The model had FDU by 1.8 and a total of 68.4 (actual 90).

Team stats

FDU		SFPA
25-54 46%	Field goals	25-54 46%
6-23 26%	3-pointers	10-26 38%
26-33 79%	Free throws	25-30 83%
30 7 off	Rebounds	30 7 off
12	Assists	17
3	Steals	4
1	Blocks	2
9	Turnovers	11
22	Fouls	24
32	Points in paint	24
5	Fast-break points	9

Players

FDU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Taeshaud Jackson F	38	16	9	1	5-10	0-1
Joey Niesman G	36	23	8	5	7-17	1-6
Cyril Martynov C	34	8	5	4	2-5	0-0
Eric Parnell G	30	10	3	0	4-10	2-8
Raysean Johnson G	21	11	2	1	3-5	1-3
Bench
David Jevtic G	17	5	2	0	2-3	0-1
Noah Melson G	10	4	0	1	1-2	1-2
Arthur Cox F	8	5	0	0	1-2	1-2
Ras Elijah Godbolt G	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Tyler McQuaid, Sebastian Haubro, Kody Frey, Andrew Canda, Josiah Francis, Chid Ekwommadu, Cole Alexander

SFPA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Skylar Wicks G	35	24	6	3	8-19	4-11
Ahmad Harrison G	33	12	1	6	3-5	2-3
Gestin Liberis F	24	6	4	0	2-3	0-0
Chris Moncrief G	22	14	1	2	4-6	0-1
Victor Payne Jr. G	16	7	2	2	2-4	2-4
Bench
Ralph Martino Jr. G	29	6	4	2	1-5	0-2
Paris Papadatos G	18	9	3	2	3-7	1-2
Brandon Russell G	12	5	2	0	1-3	1-3
Cameron Tweedy F	11	2	4	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Carson Rhodes, Melvin Weaver III, Kam Wylie, Kofi Asare, Brandon Rabish, Trey Weiand, KJ Swain Jr., Ryen Gresko, Zion Russell

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FDU -2.5	FDU -2.8	FDU +0.3	L SFPA covered
Total	143.5	146.0	Over 2.5	W Over
Projected score	—	FDU 74.4 · SFPA 71.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FDU -1.8	FDU -2.0
1H total	68.4	90
1H projected score	FDU 35.1 · SFPA 33.3	FDU 46 · SFPA 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FDU LLWWW	3-8	27%	3-6	0-1
SFPA LLWWL	4-8	33%	1-2	4-8

Venue/role: FDU away, as favorite; SFPA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
FDU UUUUO	4-7	36%	1-10
SFPA UOOOU	6-6	50%	0-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FDU	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
SFPA	0-10 0%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

FDU 5–4 SFPAFDU leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · SFPA has won the last 2 meetings · FDU 5-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 22, 2024-25	FDU 80 @ SFPA 85	SFPA +1.5	SFPA W
Jan 12, 2024-25	SFPA 75 @ FDU 71	FDU -4.5	SFPA W
Feb 17, 2023-24	SFPA 74 @ FDU 93	FDU -5.5	FDU W
Jan 15, 2023-24	FDU 81 @ SFPA 71	SFPA -0.5	FDU W
Mar 4, 2022-23	SFPA 50 @ FDU 70	FDU -4.5	FDU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

FDU

11 games played

Straight up

1-10

9% wins

Against the spread

3-8

27% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-7

36% overs · avg −1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-109%

L L L L L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-827%

L L L L L L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-736%

U O U O U O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ISU	L 50-88	+37.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 138
Nov 8	@SPU	L 83-93	+6.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 176
Nov 12	@TEX	L 58-93	+31.5	L −3.5	158.5	U 151
Nov 15	@NJIT	L 81-93	+2.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 174
Nov 24	vsETAM	L 65-70	+3.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 135
Nov 26	vsARMY	L 73-81	-4.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 154
Dec 2	@PROV	L 64-94	+26.5	L −3.5	162.5	U 158
Dec 10	@FOR	L 54-75	+11.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 129
Dec 22	@BC	L 61-72	+16.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 133
Dec 29	@MINN	L 43-60	+25.5	W +8.5	139.5	U 103
Jan 2	@MERC	W 74-67	+5.5	W +12.5	133.5	O 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ISU

L 50-88

−0.5

SPU

L 83-93

−3.5

TEX

L 58-93

−3.5

NJIT

L 81-93

−9.5

ETAM

L 65-70

−1.5

ARMY

L 73-81

−12.5

PROV

L 64-94

−3.5

FOR

L 54-75

−9.5

L 61-72

+5.5

MINN

L 43-60

+8.5

MERC

W 74-67

+12.5

covered 3didn’t cover 8avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ISU

L 50-88

−9.5

SPU

L 83-93

+38.5

TEX

L 58-93

−7.5

NJIT

L 81-93

+27.5

ETAM

L 65-70

−14.5

ARMY

L 73-81

+1.5

PROV

L 64-94

−4.5

FOR

L 54-75

−12.5

L 61-72

−8.5

MINN

L 43-60

−36.5

MERC

W 74-67

+7.5

over 4under 7avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Saint Francis Red Wolves

12 games played

Straight up

0-12

0% wins

Against the spread

4-8

33% covers · avg −5.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-6

50% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-120%

L L L L L L L L L L L L

12 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-833%

L L L L L W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-650%

O O U U U U O U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@OU	L 66-102	+31.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 168
Nov 6	@TCU	L 63-104	+27.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 167
Nov 11	vsMSM	L 66-74	+6.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 18	@LEH	L 62-79	+10.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 141
Nov 24	vsBEL	L 57-94	+21.5	L −15.5	157.5	U 151
Nov 26	vsTROY	L 64-74	+21.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 138
Dec 1	@XAV	L 74-96	+27.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 7	@RAD	L 56-89	+13.5	L −19.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 14	@TEM	L 67-95	+20.5	L −7.5	150.5	O 162
Dec 17	@FLA	L 61-102	+44.5	W +3.5	156.5	O 163
Dec 20	vsRMU	L 70-79	+13.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 2	vsLEM	L 58-84	+5.5	L −20.5	151.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 66-102

−4.5

TCU

L 63-104

−13.5

MSM

L 66-74

−1.5

LEH

L 62-79

−6.5

BEL

L 57-94

−15.5

TROY

L 64-74

+11.5

XAV

L 74-96

+5.5

RAD

L 56-89

−19.5

TEM

L 67-95

−7.5

FLA

L 61-102

+3.5

RMU

L 70-79

+4.5

LEM

L 58-84

−20.5

covered 4didn’t cover 8avg −5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 66-102

+18.5

TCU

L 63-104

+13.5

MSM

L 66-74

−9.5

LEH

L 62-79

−10.5

BEL

L 57-94

−6.5

TROY

L 64-74

−13.5

XAV

L 74-96

+17.5

RAD

L 56-89

−9.5

TEM

L 67-95

+11.5

FLA

L 61-102

+6.5

RMU

L 70-79

+3.5

LEM

L 58-84

−9.5

over 6under 6avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

FDU @ Saint Francis Red Wolves

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

FDU

Saint Francis Red Wolves

FDU

Saint Francis Red Wolves