Stony Brook Seawolves at William & Mary Tribe: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 31, 2:00 PM ETKaplan Arena · at William & Mary · Conference game

Final

Closing lineW&M -11.5✓ W&M covered by 7.5

Closing total159.5Under by 26.5

Season records: Stony Brook and William & Mary
STBK	This season	W&M
6-6	Record	8-3
8-4	ATS	10-1
5-7	O/U	5-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: STBK 72–83 W&M · ✓ W&M (83%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
STBK	31	26	57
W&M	34	42	76

1st half: STBK 31, W&M 34 (W&M by 3). The model had W&M by 6.5 and a total of 72.2 (actual 65).

Team stats

STBK		W&M
20-63 32%	Field goals	25-51 49%
9-38 24%	3-pointers	10-26 38%
8-9 89%	Free throws	16-20 80%
36 15 off	Rebounds	36 8 off
11	Assists	19
7	Steals	7
2	Blocks	5
13	Turnovers	12
22	Fouls	14
22	Points in paint	28
7	Fast-break points	22

Players

STBK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Erik Pratt G	33	19	2	2	6-17	1-7
Ethan Simmon G	26	4	1	0	2-8	0-5
Quin Gorman F	20	6	4	1	2-3	2-3
Andrej Shoshkikj G	17	2	3	0	1-3	0-2
Tomas Valentiny F	14	0	2	0	0-6	0-4
Bench
Rob Brown III G	31	15	4	3	5-12	5-10
Richard Goods F	29	7	14	3	3-7	1-3
Jonah Butler G	20	4	1	2	1-6	0-4
Toby Onyekonwu G	7	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Oleg Kojenets F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jake Harbatkin, Andrew Okafor, Liam Dagostino, Collin O'Connor, Leon Nahar

W&M	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi F	30	22	7	2	8-10	3-4
Kyle Pulliam G	27	17	6	1	5-7	2-3
Kilian Brockhoff F	22	2	0	5	1-8	0-6
Chase Lowe G	22	3	5	6	1-4	0-0
Cade Haskins F	15	6	3	0	2-4	2-3
Bench
Reese Miller G	24	13	5	3	5-10	0-5
Jo'el Emanuel F	22	1	1	0	0-0	0-0
Jhei-R Jones G	16	5	2	1	1-2	1-2
Ryan Jackson Jr. G	15	6	2	1	2-4	2-2
Finn Lally F	7	1	3	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Kaleb Spencer, Ethan Connery, Colin Lamine Ndaw, Kyle Frazier, Miles Hicks

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	W&M -11.5	W&M -11.1	STBK +0.4	L W&M covered
Total	159.5	154.2	Under 5.3	W Under
Projected score	—	STBK 71.5 · W&M 82.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	W&M -6.5	W&M -3.0
1H total	72.2	65
1H projected score	STBK 32.8 · W&M 39.4	STBK 31 · W&M 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STBK WWLLL	8-4	67%	3-2	5-3
W&M WWWWW	10-1	91%	3-0	5-0

Venue/role: STBK away, as underdog; W&M home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
STBK OUUUU	5-7	42%	6-6
W&M UUOOU	5-6	45%	8-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STBK	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
W&M	7-3 70%	9-1 90%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

STBK 3–2 W&MSTBK leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · STBK 4-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 4, 2024-25	W&M 83 @ STBK 76	STBK +6.5	W&M W
Feb 24, 2023-24	W&M 62 @ STBK 75	STBK -8.5	STBK W
Jan 13, 2023-24	STBK 63 @ W&M 59	W&M +1.5	STBK W
Feb 16, 2022-23	W&M 66 @ STBK 71	STBK -3.5	STBK W
Jan 26, 2022-23	STBK 74 @ W&M 77	W&M -4.5	STBK W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Stony Brook

12 games played

Straight up

6-6

50% wins

Against the spread

8-4

67% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-7

42% overs · avg −5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-650%

W L W L W W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

8-467%

W W W L W W W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-742%

U O O U U O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsME	W 71-60	-3.5	W +7.5	131.5	U 131
Nov 15	@YALE	L 79-86	+20.5	W +13.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 20	vsBRWN	W 80-70	-3.5	W +6.5	136.5	O 150
Nov 24	vsPAC	L 58-86	+4.5	L −23.5	145.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsBCU	W 61-54	+4.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 115
Nov 28	@LMU	W 71-68	+10.5	W +13.5	138.5	O 139
Dec 6	@DUQ	L 75-84	+9.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 159
Dec 9	vsCOLU	W 77-73	+4.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 150
Dec 13	vsCMU	W 78-55	-7.5	W +15.5	145.5	U 133
Dec 17	vsUALB	L 55-71	-10.5	L −26.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 21	@MRST	L 51-70	+6.5	L −12.5	137.5	U 121
Dec 29	@HAMP	L 59-62	+2.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 71-60

+7.5

YALE

L 79-86

+13.5

BRWN

W 80-70

+6.5

PAC

L 58-86

−23.5

BCU

W 61-54

+11.5

LMU

W 71-68

+13.5

DUQ

L 75-84

+0.5

COLU

W 77-73

+8.5

CMU

W 78-55

+15.5

UALB

L 55-71

−26.5

MRST

L 51-70

−12.5

HAMP

L 59-62

−0.5

covered 8didn’t cover 4avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 71-60

−0.5

YALE

L 79-86

+14.5

BRWN

W 80-70

+13.5

PAC

L 58-86

−1.5

BCU

W 61-54

−30.5

LMU

W 71-68

+0.5

DUQ

L 75-84

+8.5

COLU

W 77-73

+3.5

CMU

W 78-55

−12.5

UALB

L 55-71

−20.5

MRST

L 51-70

−16.5

HAMP

L 59-62

−19.5

over 5under 7avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

William & Mary

11 games played

Straight up

8-3

73% wins

Against the spread

10-1

91% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-6

45% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-373%

W L L W W W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-191%

W W L W W W W W W W W

8 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-645%

O O U U U O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@NORF	W 81-78	-2.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 159
Nov 11	@RICH	L 86-90	+9.5	W +5.5	164.5	O 176
Nov 15	@SJU	L 60-93	+28.5	L −4.5	179.5	U 153
Nov 19	@BGSU	W 82-74	+8.5	W +16.5	167.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsUTEP	W 74-63	-2.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsACU	W 92-58	+1.5	W +35.5	147.5	O 150
Nov 30	vsODU	W 88-75	-8.5	W +4.5	163.5	U 163
Dec 2	@DUQ	W 83-79	+5.5	W +9.5	170.5	U 162
Dec 6	@GW	L 86-99	+13.5	W +0.5	174.5	O 185
Dec 18	vsRAD	W 96-83	-8.5	W +4.5	170.5	O 179
Dec 29	vsTOW	W 84-70	-1.5	W +12.5	157.5	U 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NORF

W 81-78

+0.5

RICH

L 86-90

+5.5

SJU

L 60-93

−4.5

BGSU

W 82-74

+16.5

UTEP

W 74-63

+8.5

ACU

W 92-58

+35.5

ODU

W 88-75

+4.5

DUQ

W 83-79

+9.5

L 86-99

+0.5

RAD

W 96-83

+4.5

TOW

W 84-70

+12.5

covered 10didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NORF

W 81-78

+0.5

RICH

L 86-90

+11.5

SJU

L 60-93

−26.5

BGSU

W 82-74

−11.5

UTEP

W 74-63

−22.5

ACU

W 92-58

+2.5

ODU

W 88-75

−0.5

DUQ

W 83-79

−8.5

L 86-99

+10.5

RAD

W 96-83

+8.5

TOW

W 84-70

−3.5

over 5under 6avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Stony Brook @ William & Mary

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Stony Brook

William & Mary

Stony Brook

William & Mary