LSU New Orleans Privateers at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 1:00 PM ETUnited Supermarkets Arena · at Texas Tech

Final

#12TTUTexas Tech AP #2082▲ winner

Closing lineTTU -29.5✓ TTU covered by 2.5

Closing total157.5Under by 25.5

Season records: LSU N Orleans and Texas Tech
NOLA	This season	TTU
2-4	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	1-5
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NOLA 65–92 TTU · ✓ TTU (99%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NOLA	34	16	50
TTU	41	41	82

1st half: NOLA 34, TTU 41 (TTU by 7). The model had TTU by 15.7 and a total of 73.4 (actual 75).

Team stats

NOLA		TTU
20-54 37%	Field goals	28-64 44%
2-15 13%	3-pointers	11-24 46%
8-13 62%	Free throws	15-25 60%
30 6 off	Rebounds	47 18 off
10	Assists	19
8	Steals	7
2	Blocks	7
17	Turnovers	12
25	Fouls	18
30	Points in paint	30
3	Fast-break points	10

Players

NOLA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jakevion Buckley G	31	16	4	3	6-12	0-0
Coleton Benson G	29	6	1	1	2-10	2-8
Churchill Abass F	21	4	5	0	2-5	0-0
Panagiotis Pagonis F	18	0	1	2	0-1	0-1
MJ Thomas F	16	3	1	2	1-3	0-0
Bench
Enzo Boudouma F	18	4	4	0	1-7	0-2
Kedrick Osby F	18	0	1	0	0-2	0-0
TJ Cope G	17	4	0	0	2-5	0-2
Jamal Chretien II G	13	2	2	0	1-2	0-1
Mathok Majok F	11	9	6	0	4-5	0-0
Irish Coquia G	8	2	1	2	1-2	0-1

Did not play: Eze Nwakamma, Vieux Sanneh, William Patterson Jr., Grant Kemp

TTU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Christian Anderson G	37	23	0	5	8-13	6-9
JT Toppin F	30	19	16	2	9-18	1-2
Luke Bamgboye F	26	13	5	4	3-5	0-0
Donovan Atwell G	23	13	0	1	5-9	3-7
Tyeree Bryan G	18	0	6	1	0-1	0-1
Bench
LeJuan Watts G	23	12	8	2	2-11	1-3
Jaylen Petty G	23	0	3	1	0-4	0-1
Leon Horner G	16	2	2	3	1-2	0-0
Nolan Groves G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Jack Francis G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: LaTrell Hoover, Marial Akuentok, Jazz Henderson Jr., Josiah Moseley

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TTU -29.5	TTU -26.3	NOLA +3.2	L TTU covered
Total	157.5	156.7	Under 0.8	W Under
Projected score	—	NOLA 65.2 · TTU 91.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TTU -15.7	TTU -7.0
1H total	73.4	75
1H projected score	NOLA 28.8 · TTU 44.6	NOLA 34 · TTU 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NOLA LWLLW	3-3	50%	3-3	3-3
TTU LLLLL	1-5	17%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: NOLA away, as underdog; TTU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NOLA UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
TTU OUUOU	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NOLAlast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
TTUlast 6	4-2 67%	1-5 17%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

LSU N Orleans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +9.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

W L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TCU	W 78-74	+21.5	W +25.5	149.5	O 152
Nov 10	@LSU	L 58-93	+19.5	L −15.5	162.5	U 151
Nov 14	@TULN	W 85-63	+11.5	W +33.5	153.5	U 148
Nov 18	@PEPP	L 79-90	+5.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 21	@FRES	L 76-85	+6.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 161
Nov 24	@MSST	L 78-81	+23.5	W +20.5	160.5	U 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TCU

W 78-74

+25.5

LSU

L 58-93

−15.5

TULN

W 85-63

+33.5

PEPP

L 79-90

−5.5

FRES

L 76-85

−2.5

MSST

L 78-81

+20.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +9.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TCU

W 78-74

+2.5

LSU

L 58-93

−11.5

TULN

W 85-63

−5.5

PEPP

L 79-90

+11.5

FRES

L 76-85

+6.5

MSST

L 78-81

−1.5

over 3under 3avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Texas Tech

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsLIN	W 98-60	-29.5	W +8.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 7	vsSHSU	W 98-77	-31.5	L −10.5	156.5	O 175
Nov 11	@ILL	L 77-81	+3.5	L −0.5	168.5	U 158
Nov 14	vsMILW	W 80-63	-27.5	L −10.5	165.5	U 143
Nov 20	vsWAKE	W 84-83	-9.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 21	vsPUR	L 56-86	+3.5	L −26.5	153.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIN

W 98-60

+8.5

SHSU

W 98-77

−10.5

ILL

L 77-81

−0.5

MILW

W 80-63

−10.5

WAKE

W 84-83

−8.5

PUR

L 56-86

−26.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIN

W 98-60

+11.5

SHSU

W 98-77

+18.5

ILL

L 77-81

−10.5

MILW

W 80-63

−22.5

WAKE

W 84-83

+6.5

PUR

L 56-86

−11.5

over 3under 3avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

LSU N Orleans @ Texas Tech

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

LSU N Orleans

Texas Tech

LSU N Orleans

Texas Tech