Georgia Southern Eagles at UL Monroe Warhawks: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 29, 7:30 PM ETb1Bank Fant Coliseum · at UL Monroe · Conference game

LineGASO -12.5moved 3 toward GASO

Total160.5no move

Season records: GA Southern and UL Monroe
GASO	This season	ULM
11-9	Record	1-18
10-10	ATS	10-9
12-8	O/U	14-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GASO 88–79 · win probability GASO 78%

Line

GASO -12.5

moved 3 toward GASO

Total

160.5

model 166.9 · Over by 6.5

Model edge

ULM by 3.5

model vs market

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GASO has more of the edges

GASO 5, ULM 4 · 2025-26 so far

GASOBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GASO 14.7%, ULM 16.9%. Forced: GASO 18.7%, ULM 15.7%

GASOBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: GASO 51.4 and allows 52.3; ULM 47.8 and allows 57.1

ULMBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: GASO 39.6, ULM 38.8. Allowed: GASO 41.4, ULM 27.7

GASOBig

GASO offense vs ULM defense

Offense 233rd of 366 against a defense 361st, on the model’s ratings

ULMBig

Recent form

Last 5: GASO 0-5 ATS, margin -7.8; ULM 3-2 ATS, margin -21.4

GASOSmall

Three-pointers

GASO hits 33.4% and allows 34.4%; ULM hits 32.2% and allows 36.9%. Threes are 48.9% and 41.9% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

GASO has played the 280th-hardest schedule, ULM the 216th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GASOSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GASO 28.8%, ULM 25.1%. Defensive: GASO 64.8%, ULM 64.6%

ULMSmall

Home court

ULM at home. This season: ULM 1-6 at home, GASO 5-4 away

ULMSmall

Rest

GASO 5 days since its last game, ULM 6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GASO 16%, ULM 1%. Transfers in: GASO 3, ULM 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

ULM offense vs GASO defense

Offense 331st of 366 against a defense 347th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 72 possessions: GASO plays 71.8 a game (42nd fastest), ULM 71.3 (58th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Road favorites of 10 to 14.5	364	91%	48%	49%
Conference games at this spread	1541	89%	47%	51%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite	6763	75%	50%	51%
Games with a total of 160 to 164.5	787	78%	50%	54%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	GASO -12.5	GASO -9.0	ULM +3.5
Total	160.5	166.9	Over 6.4
Projected score	—	GASO 87.9 · ULM 78.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GASO -5.5	—
1H total	78.1	—
1H projected score	GASO 41.8 · ULM 36.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO LLLLL	10-10	50%	6-3	6-5
ULM WWLLW	10-9	53%	3-4	9-9

Venue/role: GASO away, as favorite; ULM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO OOUUO	12-8	60%	11-9
ULM OUUOU	14-5	74%	1-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
ULM	0-10 0%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

GASO 5–1 ULMGASO leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · GASO has won the last 3 meetings · GASO 4-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 2, 2024-25	ULM 82 @ GASO 90	GASO -10.5	ULM W
Jan 6, 2023-24	GASO 76 @ ULM 68	ULM -3.5	GASO W
Mar 2, 2022-23	ULM 57 vs GASO 66	GASO -4.5	GASO W
Jan 19, 2022-23	ULM 72 @ GASO 59	GASO -8.5	ULM W
Feb 25, 2021-22	ULM 75 @ GASO 81	GASO -3.5	GASO W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

GA Southern

20 games played

Straight up

11-9

55% wins

Against the spread

10-10

50% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-8

60% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-955%

L W W L L L L W W W W W W W W L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-1050%

W L W W L L L W W L W W W W W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-860%

O O O U U U U U O O O U O O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@ECU	L 89-92	+5.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 181
Nov 8	vsUNCA	W 93-90	-5.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 183
Nov 11	@FGCU	W 95-94	+3.5	W +4.5	163.5	O 189
Nov 18	@GT	L 66-68	+10.5	W +8.5	164.5	U 134
Nov 21	@FSU	L 72-98	+18.5	L −7.5	175.5	U 170
Nov 24	vsYSU	L 61-67	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	U 128
Nov 25	vsUTSA	L 64-77	-3.5	L −16.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 29	vsHCU	W 80-62	-7.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 142
Dec 3	vsLT	W 77-69	-1.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 146
Dec 6	@GWEB	W 88-84	-10.5	L −6.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 13	@WGA	W 91-85	-3.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 176
Dec 18	vsGAST	W 90-67	-9.5	W +13.5	159.5	U 157
Dec 20	vsJMU	W 96-92	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 188
Jan 1	@CCU	W 82-81	+1.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 3	@ODU	W 93-86	-1.5	W +5.5	161.5	O 179
Jan 10	@USA	L 71-87	+2.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 158
Jan 15	vsODU	W 87-84	-5.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 171
Jan 17	vsCCU	L 75-79	-6.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 154
Jan 22	vsARST	L 68-85	+1.5	L −15.5	172.5	U 153
Jan 24	vsTROY	L 78-83	+4.5	L −0.5	159.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ECU

L 89-92

+2.5

UNCA

W 93-90

−2.5

FGCU

W 95-94

+4.5

L 66-68

+8.5

FSU

L 72-98

−7.5

YSU

L 61-67

−4.5

UTSA

L 64-77

−16.5

HCU

W 80-62

+10.5

W 77-69

+6.5

GWEB

W 88-84

−6.5

WGA

W 91-85

+2.5

GAST

W 90-67

+13.5

JMU

W 96-92

+1.5

CCU

W 82-81

+2.5

ODU

W 93-86

+5.5

USA

L 71-87

−13.5

ODU

W 87-84

−2.5

CCU

L 75-79

−10.5

ARST

L 68-85

−15.5

TROY

L 78-83

−0.5

covered 10didn’t cover 10avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ECU

L 89-92

+29.5

UNCA

W 93-90

+20.5

FGCU

W 95-94

+25.5

L 66-68

−30.5

FSU

L 72-98

−5.5

YSU

L 61-67

−35.5

UTSA

L 64-77

−19.5

HCU

W 80-62

−6.5

W 77-69

+0.5

GWEB

W 88-84

+9.5

WGA

W 91-85

+21.5

GAST

W 90-67

−2.5

JMU

W 96-92

+34.5

CCU

W 82-81

+5.5

ODU

W 93-86

+17.5

USA

L 71-87

+9.5

ODU

W 87-84

+8.5

CCU

L 75-79

−3.5

ARST

L 68-85

−19.5

TROY

L 78-83

+1.5

over 12under 8avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

UL Monroe

19 games played

Straight up

1-18

5% wins

Against the spread

10-9

53% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-5

74% overs · avg +5.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-185%

L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L

12 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-953%

L W L L W L W L W W L W L W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-574%

O O U O O O U O O O O O O O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NIU	L 82-102	+7.5	L −12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@MISS	L 65-86	+37.5	W +16.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 13	@HCU	L 61-72	+8.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 17	vsLAM	L 66-79	+11.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 22	vsMORE	L 80-83	+6.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 163
Nov 23	@ETSU	L 55-97	+19.5	L −22.5	146.5	O 152
Dec 3	vsMVSU	W 66-52	-9.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 118
Dec 7	@SFA	L 76-96	+19.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 172
Dec 13	@MIA	L 79-104	+35.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 183
Dec 17	vsUSA	L 92-96	+9.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 188
Dec 20	vsUL	L 62-76	+1.5	L −12.5	136.5	O 138
Dec 28	@KSU	L 85-94	+32.5	W +23.5	169.5	O 179
Jan 1	vsUSM	L 73-87	+9.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 3	vsTXST	L 79-84	+10.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 163
Jan 8	@UL	L 79-85	+7.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 164
Jan 10	@USM	L 60-70	+14.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 130
Jan 17	vsGAST	L 57-77	+6.5	L −13.5	155.5	U 134
Jan 22	@MRSH	L 60-115	+18.5	L −36.5	160.5	O 175
Jan 23	@APP	L 43-59	+16.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 102

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NIU

L 82-102

−12.5

MISS

L 65-86

+16.5

HCU

L 61-72

−2.5

LAM

L 66-79

−1.5

L 80-83

+3.5

ETSU

L 55-97

−22.5

MVSU

W 66-52

+4.5

SFA

L 76-96

−0.5

MIA

L 79-104

+10.5

USA

L 92-96

+5.5

L 62-76

−12.5

KSU

L 85-94

+23.5

USM

L 73-87

−4.5

TXST

L 79-84

+5.5

L 79-85

+1.5

USM

L 60-70

+4.5

GAST

L 57-77

−13.5

MRSH

L 60-115

−36.5

APP

L 43-59

+0.5

covered 10didn’t cover 9avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NIU

L 82-102

+36.5

MISS

L 65-86

+1.5

HCU

L 61-72

−10.5

LAM

L 66-79

+4.5

L 80-83

+17.5

ETSU

L 55-97

+5.5

MVSU

W 66-52

−31.5

SFA

L 76-96

+29.5

MIA

L 79-104

+29.5

USA

L 92-96

+39.5

L 62-76

+1.5

KSU

L 85-94

+9.5

USM

L 73-87

+7.5

TXST

L 79-84

+12.5

L 79-85

+24.5

USM

L 60-70

−25.5

GAST

L 57-77

−21.5

MRSH

L 60-115

+14.5

APP

L 43-59

−42.5

over 14under 5avg +5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

GA Southern has the better starters

Position by position: GA Southern 1, UL Monroe 0, even 4

GA SouthernBetterUL Monroe

G J. Dixon TR9 pts · 1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 39

GASOSmall

G D. Anderson TR5.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 23

G D. Williams3.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 10

Even

G K. London TR5.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 1 ast Score 5

G J. Williams1 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

G Q. McPherson TR4.4 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 60

F T. Claytor TR6.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

No call

G R. Cowherd TR0.9 pts · 0 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

F T. Sotirov2.5 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 1

No call

C J. Lafleur TR1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

GA SouthernBetterUL Monroe

GASO offense233rd of 366 · -7.2

GASOBig

ULM defense361st of 366 · -11.5

GASO defense347th of 366 · -9.4

Even

ULM offense331st of 366 · -10.8

Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-4.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt-3.7 · 2 players

ULMBig

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

Bench-0.8 · 1 player

Even

Bench-0.1 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestGASO betterULM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

GA Southern

Guards

J. Dixon19 min · TRD. Williams12 minJ. Williams8 minD. GardnerNewA. HendersonNewR. WilliamsNew

Forwards

T. Claytor17 min · TRT. Sotirov11 minE. Smith6 min · TRC. CrissmanNewE. SavaneNewE. JamesNew

UL Monroe

Guards

D. Anderson16 min · TRK. London14 min · TRQ. McPherson11 min · TRR. Cowherd5 min · TRC. Campbell1 minP. TillmanNew

Forwards

L. Carr2 min · TRG. ChamberlainNewJ. RegisteNewG. SchoentgenNew

Centers

J. Lafleur6 min · TRM. AdonryNewZ. NdanckyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GASO79.9 #69

ULM71.7 #255

Points per possession

GASO1.12 #109

ULM1.00 #321

Pace (possessions)

GASO71.8 #42

ULM71.3 #58

Shooting

Effective FG%

GASO51.4 #176

ULM47.8 #316

3-point %

GASO33.4 #207

ULM32.2 #270

3-point attempt rate

GASO48.9 #20

ULM41.9 #135

Free throw rate

GASO39.6 #62

ULM38.8 #85

Possessions

Turnover rate

GASO14.7 #49

ULM16.9 #196

Offensive rebound rate

GASO28.8 #238

ULM25.1 #338

Assists per game

GASO10.7 #344

ULM11.9 #288

Defense

Points allowed

GASO80.3 #325

ULM85.4 #361

Points allowed per possession

GASO1.11 #259

ULM1.20 #358

Opponent effective FG%

GASO52.3 #230

ULM57.1 #358

Opponent 3-point %

GASO34.4 #208

ULM36.9 #343

Turnovers forced

GASO18.7 #65

ULM15.7 #235

Defensive rebound rate

GASO64.8 #342

ULM64.6 #345

Steals per game

GASO8.1 #36

ULM6.0 #237

Blocks per game

GASO3.6 #128

ULM3.2 #189

GASO		ULM
Scoring
79.9 #69	Points per game	71.7 #255
1.12 #109	Points per possession	1.00 #321
71.8 #42	Pace (possessions)	71.3 #58
Shooting
51.4 #176	Effective FG%	47.8 #316
33.4 #207	3-point %	32.2 #270
48.9 #20	3-point attempt rate	41.9 #135
39.6 #62	Free throw rate	38.8 #85
Possessions
14.7 #49	Turnover rate	16.9 #196
28.8 #238	Offensive rebound rate	25.1 #338
10.7 #344	Assists per game	11.9 #288
Defense
80.3 #325	Points allowed	85.4 #361
1.11 #259	Points allowed per possession	1.20 #358
52.3 #230	Opponent effective FG%	57.1 #358
34.4 #208	Opponent 3-point %	36.9 #343
18.7 #65	Turnovers forced	15.7 #235
64.8 #342	Defensive rebound rate	64.6 #345
8.1 #36	Steals per game	6.0 #237
3.6 #128	Blocks per game	3.2 #189

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

GA Southern

11-9 overall · 5-4 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Troy78–83
Lvs Arkansas St68–85
Lvs Coastal75–79
Wvs Old Dominion87–84
L@ South Alabama71–87

5 days since their last game.

UL Monroe

1-18 overall · 0-9 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ App State43–59
L@ Marshall60–115
Lvs Georgia St57–77
L@ Southern Miss60–70
L@ Louisiana79–85

6 days since their last game.

GA Southern @ UL Monroe

What could decide it: GASO has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

GA Southern

UL Monroe

GA Southern has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

GA Southern

UL Monroe