App State Mountaineers at Marshall Thundering Herd: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 4:00 PM ETCam Henderson Center · at Marshall · Conference game

#259APPApp State81final

Final

#231MRSHMarshall88▲ winner

Closing lineMRSH -7.5✓ APP covered by 0.5

Closing total141.5Over by 27.5

Season records: App State and Marshall
APP	This season	MRSH
7-6	Record	8-5
8-5	ATS	5-8
4-9	O/U	6-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: APP 68–73 MRSH · ✓ MRSH (69%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
APP	32	49	81
MRSH	44	44	88

1st half: APP 32, MRSH 44 (MRSH by 12). The model had MRSH by 3.4 and a total of 66.1 (actual 76).

Team stats

APP		MRSH
28-59 47%	Field goals	29-55 53%
8-23 35%	3-pointers	12-24 50%
17-31 55%	Free throws	18-25 72%
35 13 off	Rebounds	32 6 off
12	Assists	20
4	Steals	4
3	Blocks	4
11	Turnovers	8
17	Fouls	25
36	Points in paint	26
11	Fast-break points	8

Players

APP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Alonzo Dodd G	38	12	9	5	5-11	1-4
Kasen Jennings G	35	9	5	5	4-14	0-5
Luke Wilson C	34	19	9	0	5-7	0-0
Michael Marcus Jr. F	34	21	6	0	7-14	3-5
Eren Banks G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Jason Clarke Jr. G	21	11	0	2	4-5	1-2
Jalen Tot G	21	9	3	0	3-7	3-7
Chad Moodie F	9	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Jacari Brim G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Andrin Njock F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Tre McKinnon, Cameron O'Kelley, Luke Ledford, Grant Clayton, Ted Neal, KJ Vasser, Dalyn Brandon, Brewer Carruth

MRSH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Wyatt Fricks F	38	16	6	1	5-14	2-7
Noah Otshudi G	36	17	5	4	7-10	1-1
Jalen Speer G	33	21	2	7	7-15	4-6
Caleb Hollenbeck G	26	6	2	2	2-6	2-6
Matt Van Komen C	2	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Drew Fuquay F	19	7	6	0	3-3	0-0
Landen Joseph G	18	5	1	5	0-1	0-0
Shamarrie Hugie G	14	12	2	1	3-4	3-4
Wilson Dubinsky G	5	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Erich Harding F	5	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Bryce Slay G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kai Spears, Kaiden White, Grant Moore, Will Moore

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MRSH -7.5	MRSH -5.8	APP +1.7	W APP covered
Total	141.5	141.1	Under 0.4	L Over
Projected score	—	APP 67.6 · MRSH 73.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MRSH -3.4	MRSH -12.0
1H total	66.1	76
1H projected score	APP 31.4 · MRSH 34.7	APP 32 · MRSH 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP WWWLW	8-5	62%	4-2	4-3
MRSH LWLLL	5-8	38%	2-5	2-5

Venue/role: APP away, as underdog; MRSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP UOUUO	4-9	31%	7-6
MRSH OUOUO	6-7	46%	8-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APP	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
MRSH	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

APP 2–4 MRSHMRSH leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · MRSH has won the last 2 meetings · APP 2-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 28, 2024-25	APP 57 @ MRSH 75	MRSH -2.5	MRSH W
Feb 22, 2024-25	MRSH 69 @ APP 59	APP -3.5	MRSH W
Feb 24, 2023-24	APP 65 @ MRSH 58	MRSH +5.5	APP W
Feb 15, 2023-24	MRSH 58 @ APP 73	APP -10.5	APP W
Feb 2, 2022-23	MRSH 66 @ APP 58	APP +3.5	MRSH W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

App State

13 games played

Straight up

7-6

54% wins

Against the spread

8-5

62% covers · avg −0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-9

31% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-654%

L W L W W L L L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

8-562%

L W W W W L L L W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-931%

O U U O U U U U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CMU	L 66-82	+1.5	L −14.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 9	vsNCCU	W 76-54	-10.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 130
Nov 11	@OSU	L 53-75	+23.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 128
Nov 16	@DART	W 85-77	-1.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 162
Nov 21	vsCLT	W 65-63	-1.5	W +0.5	132.5	U 128
Nov 24	vsELON	L 53-88	-5.5	L −40.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 26	@MER	L 67-75	+6.5	L −1.5	142.5	U 142
Nov 30	vsUNCA	L 55-67	+1.5	L −10.5	137.5	U 122
Dec 11	@ECU	W 67-54	+4.5	W +17.5	130.5	U 121
Dec 14	vsHPU	W 86-78	+12.5	W +20.5	144.5	O 164
Dec 18	vsCCU	W 67-49	-4.5	W +13.5	137.5	U 116
Dec 20	vsGAST	L 63-70	-7.5	L −14.5	137.5	U 133
Dec 31	@ODU	W 81-73	+1.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CMU

L 66-82

−14.5

NCCU

W 76-54

+11.5

OSU

L 53-75

+1.5

DART

W 85-77

+6.5

CLT

W 65-63

+0.5

ELON

L 53-88

−40.5

MER

L 67-75

−1.5

UNCA

L 55-67

−10.5

ECU

W 67-54

+17.5

HPU

W 86-78

+20.5

CCU

W 67-49

+13.5

GAST

L 63-70

−14.5

ODU

W 81-73

+9.5

covered 8didn’t cover 5avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CMU

L 66-82

+5.5

NCCU

W 76-54

−6.5

OSU

L 53-75

−19.5

DART

W 85-77

+21.5

CLT

W 65-63

−4.5

ELON

L 53-88

−2.5

MER

L 67-75

−0.5

UNCA

L 55-67

−15.5

ECU

W 67-54

−9.5

HPU

W 86-78

+19.5

CCU

W 67-49

−21.5

GAST

L 63-70

−4.5

ODU

W 81-73

+17.5

over 4under 9avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marshall

13 games played

Straight up

8-5

62% wins

Against the spread

5-8

38% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-7

46% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-562%

W W W L W W L L L W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-838%

W W L L W L L W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-746%

U U O O O U U U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MASS	W 78-72	+4.5	W +10.5	152.5	U 150
Nov 8	@TOL	W 85-73	+2.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 158
Nov 12	vsELON	W 96-89	-8.5	L −1.5	155.5	O 185
Nov 15	@UVA	L 78-104	+20.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 20	vsUAPB	W 98-70	-20.5	W +7.5	164.5	O 168
Nov 23	vsMERC	W 69-60	-11.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 129
Nov 26	vsLIP	L 67-90	-7.5	L −30.5	157.5	U 157
Dec 3	@UNCW	L 69-70	+8.5	W +7.5	150.5	U 139
Dec 6	@OHIO	L 81-88	+3.5	L −3.5	157.5	O 169
Dec 10	vsWKU	W 77-61	-1.5	W +14.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 13	vsWRST	W 76-74	-3.5	L −1.5	149.5	O 150
Dec 20	@TROY	L 63-70	+4.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 133
Dec 31	vsGAST	W 84-80	-13.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MASS

W 78-72

+10.5

TOL

W 85-73

+14.5

ELON

W 96-89

−1.5

UVA

L 78-104

−5.5

UAPB

W 98-70

+7.5

MERC

W 69-60

−2.5

LIP

L 67-90

−30.5

UNCW

L 69-70

+7.5

OHIO

L 81-88

−3.5

WKU

W 77-61

+14.5

WRST

W 76-74

−1.5

TROY

L 63-70

−2.5

GAST

W 84-80

−9.5

covered 5didn’t cover 8avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MASS

W 78-72

−2.5

TOL

W 85-73

−2.5

ELON

W 96-89

+29.5

UVA

L 78-104

+26.5

UAPB

W 98-70

+3.5

MERC

W 69-60

−18.5

LIP

L 67-90

−0.5

UNCW

L 69-70

−11.5

OHIO

L 81-88

+11.5

WKU

W 77-61

−21.5

WRST

W 76-74

+0.5

TROY

L 63-70

−22.5

GAST

W 84-80

+12.5

over 6under 7avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

App State @ Marshall

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

App State

Marshall

App State

Marshall