Western Hall · at W Illinois · Conference game
Closing line
TNST -6.5✓ TNST covered by 15.5
TNST -6.5✓ TNST covered by 15.5Closing total145.5Over by 12.5
| TNST | This season | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| 6-5 | Record | 1-11 |
| 8-3 | ATS | 6-6 |
| 6-5 | O/U | 5-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TNST 77–70 WIU · ✓ TNST (72%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TNST | 42 | 48 | 90 |
| WIU | 28 | 40 | 68 |
1st half: TNST 42, WIU 28 (TNST by 14). The model had TNST by 4.1 and a total of 69.0 (actual 70).
Team stats
| TNST | WIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 34-61 56% | Field goals | 21-55 38% |
| 7-17 41% | 3-pointers | 1-12 8% |
| 15-23 65% | Free throws | 25-34 74% |
| 37 10 off | Rebounds | 32 11 off |
| 12 | Assists | 2 |
| 9 | Steals | 9 |
| 2 | Blocks | 1 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 22 | Fouls | 13 |
| 50 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| TNST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Pitre F | 29 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Aaron Nkrumah G | 27 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4-9 | 0-1 |
| Travis Harper II G | 22 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 7-10 | 3-6 |
| Antoine Lorick III F | 22 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6-10 | 0-0 |
| Dante Harris G | 21 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Khalil London G | 18 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 6-8 | 3-5 |
| Carlous Williams F | 17 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Damon Howard Jr. G | 16 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| JC Brooks F | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Kavien Jones F | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jabrion Spikes G | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Jean Lafleur C | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Alex Garcia F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jayden Jones G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Ogien Ayo, Maddux Bodenhamer
| WIU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karyiek Dixon F | 32 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Lucas Lorenzen G | 29 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 3-9 | 1-6 |
| Isaiah Griffin F | 29 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-2 |
| Makai Kvamme G | 27 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-8 | 0-1 |
| Antwaun Massey F | 25 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 5-11 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tyran Cook G | 19 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Francis Okwuosah F | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-3 |
| Ifiok Peter F | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| Goanar Biliew F | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Steven Tipton G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jake Edwards G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Nick Hittle, Jack Riley, Danny Stephens, Marcus Pigram
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTNST -6.5
ModelTNST -6.7
Model edgeTNST +0.2
W TNST covered
Total
Market145.5
Model147.3
Model edgeOver 1.8
W Over
Projected score
TNST 77 · WIU 70.3
TNST 90 · WIU 68
Win probability
TNST 72%
1st half
Spread
TNST -4.1
TNST -14.0
Total
69.0
70 points
Projected score
TNST 36.5 · WIU 32.5
TNST 42 · WIU 28
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTNST -6.5
no move
CloseTNST -6.5
No change since the open
Total
Open145.5
no move
Close145.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
TNST -285 · WIU +230
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TNST -6.5 · unchangedmodel TNST -6.5 matches the line
model TNST -6.5 = line ✓
Opened 145.5 · unchangedmodel 147.5
model 147.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TNST | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
| WIU | 1-9 10% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
TNST 3–2 WIUTNST leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · TNST has won the last 2 meetings · TNST 4-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2024-25 | WIU 69 @ TNST 87 | TNST -8.5 | TNST W |
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | TNST 72 @ WIU 52 | WIU -2.5 | TNST W |
| Mar 7, 2023-24 | TNST 59 vs WIU 61 | WIU -2.5 | TNST W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | WIU 68 @ TNST 61 | TNST -2.5 | WIU W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | TNST 58 @ WIU 57 | WIU -2.5 | TNST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Tennessee St
11 games played
Straight up
6-5
55% wins
Against the spread
8-3
73% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-5
55% overs · avg −2.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | @ BEL | L 79-87 | +13.5 | W +5.5 | 158.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 16 | @ WKU | L 82-95 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 167.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 20 | @ TENN | L 60-89 | +31.5 | W +2.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 25 | @ UNCA | W 75-73 | +5.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 30 | @ UTC | W 70-64 | +8.5 | W +14.5 | 155.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 3 | @ AAMU | L 53-80 | -4.5 | L −31.5 | 147.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 13 | @ UNLV | W 63-60 | +12.5 | W +15.5 | 161.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 18 | vs UTM | W 78-71 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 141.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 20 | vs SEMO | L 82-91 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Dec 30 | @ TNTC | W 88-76 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | @ LR | W 84-79 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | O 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@BEL
BELL 79-87
+5.5
16
@WKU
WKUL 82-95
−0.5
20
@TENN
TENNL 60-89
+2.5
25
@UNCA
UNCAW 75-73
+7.5
30
@UTC
UTCW 70-64
+14.5
3
@AAMU
AAMUL 53-80
−31.5
13
@UNLV
UNLVW 63-60
+15.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 78-71
+4.5
20
vsSEMO
SEMOL 82-91
−7.5
30
@TNTC
TNTCW 88-76
+10.5
3
@LR
LRW 84-79
+3.5
covered 8didn’t cover 3avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@BEL
BELL 79-87
+7.5
16
@WKU
WKUL 82-95
+9.5
20
@TENN
TENNL 60-89
−8.5
25
@UNCA
UNCAW 75-73
−16.5
30
@UTC
UTCW 70-64
−21.5
3
@AAMU
AAMUL 53-80
−14.5
13
@UNLV
UNLVW 63-60
−38.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 78-71
+7.5
20
vsSEMO
SEMOL 82-91
+21.5
30
@TNTC
TNTCW 88-76
+8.5
3
@LR
LRW 84-79
+18.5
over 6under 5avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
W Illinois
12 games played
Straight up
1-11
8% wins
Against the spread
6-6
50% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-7
42% overs · avg −2.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ RAD | L 75-80 | +16.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 7 | @ IOWA | L 58-77 | +30.5 | W +11.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 11 | @ CSUB | L 58-74 | +7.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 14 | @ CBU | L 59-69 | +15.5 | W +5.5 | 140.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 21 | vs CCU | L 64-84 | +3.5 | L −16.5 | 138.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 23 | vs UND | L 69-78 | +2.5 | L −6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 2 | @ DRKE | L 57-108 | +17.5 | L −33.5 | 138.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | @UND | W 69-66 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 18 | @ LIN | L 76-92 | +12.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 22 | vs SIUE | L 61-66 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 138.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 1 | @UTM | L 60-67 | +13.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 3 | @SEMO | L 50-73 | +13.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | U 123 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@RAD
RADL 75-80
+11.5
7
@IOWA
IOWAL 58-77
+11.5
11
@CSUB
CSUBL 58-74
−8.5
14
@CBU
CBUL 59-69
+5.5
21
vsCCU
CCUL 64-84
−16.5
23
vsUND
UNDL 69-78
−6.5
2
@DRKE
DRKEL 57-108
−33.5
13
@UND
UNDW 69-66
+10.5
18
@LIN
LINL 76-92
−3.5
22
vsSIUE
SIUEL 61-66
+1.5
1
@UTM
UTML 60-67
+6.5
3
@SEMO
SEMOL 50-73
−9.5
covered 6didn’t cover 6avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@RAD
RADL 75-80
+3.5
7
@IOWA
IOWAL 58-77
−10.5
11
@CSUB
CSUBL 58-74
−9.5
14
@CBU
CBUL 59-69
−12.5
21
vsCCU
CCUL 64-84
+9.5
23
vsUND
UNDL 69-78
+0.5
2
@DRKE
DRKEL 57-108
+26.5
13
@UND
UNDW 69-66
−10.5
18
@LIN
LINL 76-92
+21.5
22
vsSIUE
SIUEL 61-66
−11.5
1
@UTM
UTML 60-67
−13.5
3
@SEMO
SEMOL 50-73
−24.5
over 5under 7avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Tennessee St
6-5 overall · 3-1 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Little Rock84–79
- W@ Tennessee Tech88–76
- Lvs SE Missouri82–91
- Wvs UT Martin78–71
- W@ UNLV63–60
5 days since their last game.
W Illinois
1-11 overall · 0-4 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ SE Missouri50–73
- L@ UT Martin60–67
- Lvs SIUE61–66
- L@ Lindenwood Lions76–92
- W@ North Dakota69–66
5 days since their last game.