1. Home
  2. Research
  3. Game flow
Research · NFL

NFL game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Indianapolis Colts ✕

When did they go over?

6 games · 2026 · Indianapolis Colts · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games6100%By halftime00%In Q3117%In Q4350%In OT00%Stayed under233%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands00%Over cashed117%Leader lost the game00%
67% went over. Of the 4 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 17% of games.

All 6 games

2026 · Indianapolis Colts · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2026 · Week 6
 IND -6.5 43.5 0131946 Q4 TEN Q4
Late over
 26–20
2026 · Week 5
 PIT -3 42.5 13304356 Q3 PIT Q2 22–34
2026 · Week 4
 IND -4.5 46.5 6163343 U IND Q3 30–13
2026 · Week 3
 HOU -1.5 42.5 3202036 U IND Q1 17–19
2026 · Week 2
 KC -6 46.5 1737445463 Q4 IND Q1 30–33
2026 · Week 1
 BAL -3 48.5 20444764 Q4 BAL Q1 41–23
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 3
Q2 17% 1
Q3 17% 1
Q4 17% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 67% and covered 83% of 6 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 67% of 6 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over1100% 1
1–32100% 2
11–1410% 0
22+250% 1
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.