When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
6 games · 2026 · Buffalo Bills · pick one to list those games
83% went over. Of the 5 overs, 20% had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 33% of games.
All 6 games
2026 · Buffalo Bills · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 · Week 6 |
BUF -5.5 | 54.5 | 10263663 | Q4 | LV Q4 Late over |
33–30 |
2026 · Week 5 |
LAR -3.5 | 55.5 | 620336871 | Q4 | BUF Q1 Late over |
37–34 |
2026 · Week 4 |
BUF -7 | 49.5 | 7313855 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over |
29–26 |
2026 · Week 3 |
BUF -7 | 50.5 | 10202340 | U | BUF Q4 Late cover flip |
16–24 |
2026 · Week 2 |
BUF -5.5 | 54.5 | 14375172 | Q4 | BUF Q1 | 31–41 |
2026 · Week 1 |
BUF -1.5 | 44.5 | 10454867 | Q2 | BUF Q2 Late cover flip Lead lost |
36–31 |
BUF
LV
LAR
NE
LAC
DET
HOUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 3
Q2 17% 1
Q3 0% 0
Q4 33% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 75% of 4 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 67% of 6 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 22+ | 2 | 50% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.