When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
6 games · 2026 · Mississippi State · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 3 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 67% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 17% of games.
All 6 games
2026 · Mississippi State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 · Week 7 |
LSU -17.5 | 56.5 | 14213131 | U | LSU Q2 | 0–31 |
2026 · Week 5 |
ALA -5.5 | 62.5 | 21456579 | Q3 | ALA Q1 | 56–23 |
2026 · Week 4 |
MSST -3.5 | 58.5 | 14244155 | U | MSST Q4 Late cover flip |
24–31 |
2026 · Week 3 |
SC -3 | 59.5 | 13375475 | Q4 | MSST Q3 | 41–34 |
2026 · Week 2 |
MSST -1.5 | 53.5 | 17344451 | U | MSST Q1 | 38–13 |
2026 · Week 1 |
MSST -28.5 | 54.5 | 21446175 | Q3 | MSST Q2 | 13–62 |
MSST
LSU
ALA
MIZ
SC
MINN
ULMWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 33% 2
Q2 33% 2
Q3 17% 1
Q4 17% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 83% and covered 83% of 6 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 83% of 6 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.